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Should Tesla move M3 reservations to a realistic time closer to actual release?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Fiver, Oct 22, 2015.

  1. Fiver

    Fiver Member

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    After the X delay debacle, should Tesla (after showing the car next spring) not accept reservations until it's actually closer to release? We know it's a few years off. Tesla will know when it's probably 4-6 months out and could open reservations then. I feel like building up 30,000+ reservations for a car from the general public isn't exactly fostering goodwill, especially if it has delays like the X.
     
  2. eye.surgeon

    eye.surgeon Member

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    Pros and Cons. Thousands of early orders equals good press/publicity, bragging rights, fodder for investors, not to mention an interest-free loan for years. Down side, endless complaining about being late and ill will from the waiters when it undoubtedly gets delayed.
     
  3. aronth5

    aronth5 Long Time Follower

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    30,000+...try 100k+ and possibly a lot lot more.
    I plan on placing my deposit/reservation on the first day and the sooner the better. Yes that may not be logical but I've been following Tesla long before I became a forum member and want some skin in the game.
    If Tesla really wants to get some publicity not only start off selling the signature model which will sell well in excess of $50k fully loaded but also have a lottery for all reservation holders so a small number can actually purchase the Model for something close to $35k.
    Just think of all the interest reservation holders who cannot afford a fully loaded model would generate with a lottery. Great publicity but of course it will never happen!
     
  4. Krugerrand

    Krugerrand Active Member

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  5. Ryan H

    Ryan H Member

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    It all depends on when the reveal happens. If the reveal happens in March like Elon said it will, people will crash the servers trying to reserve. I don't see any reason why they should delay reservations after the reveal.

    I think people are just as likely to be disappointed with a delay of being able to reserve as they are if production becomes delayed. The goal should be to prevent delays if they can.

    As far as I know, people are free to cancel their reservation and get their money back if they don't want to wait any longer.

    I think all the people on this forum interested in the Model 3 are already antsy and want it out yesterday. Giving us something to look forward to sooner rather than later is a good thing.
     
  6. FreeOfPge

    FreeOfPge Member

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    WHAT??? No, and quite frankly this is blasphemy!!!!
     
  7. Mad Hungarian

    Mad Hungarian Member

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    #7 Mad Hungarian, Oct 23, 2015
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2015
    Assuming reservations are indeed refundable, I think I could make a semi worthwhile argument that Tesla should do the opposite and open reservations right now.
    Here's my logic (or lack thereof, you all can decide)...

    There's clearly a lot of pent-up demand for this car, however it no doubt varies in intensity levels. I think the constituents can very roughly be grouped-out something like this, sorted in descending order of desire:

    1. Non-Tesla owners amazed at what the company has achieved so far, desparate to be a part of it, who have high confidence that the M3 will meet or exceed their expectations at a price point they can handle. They almost want to have that agonizng years-of-blind-faith-waiting experience so that they will feel worthy when meeting the OG Roadster, S and X folk who suffered before them and allowed the 3 to be.
    2. Tesla owners happy with their Roadster/S/X and anxious to add an M3 to the portfolio.
    3. Non-Tesla owners impressed at what the company has achieved so far, definitely wanting to go EV and this sounds like the one, just waiting for the reveal to see if it is.
    4. Non-Tesla owners who think the company is bold/intriguing but still have reservations about whether it's going to survive the cash bleed needed to make it to prime time, M3 is on their this-could-be-my-EV radar, but want to see concrete proof of if/when it's going to happen and if this car will really be all that and a bag of chips.

    I think there's a lot of people in Group 1 (me for sure) and maybe Group 2 that would lay down cash today, sight unseen, if that got us an earlier production slot. Most of Group 3 will wait to commit at or soon after the reveal. Group 4 will commit when they feel it's close enough to production to prove that the naysayers are wrong, the company is still doing fine and it's all "real".
    Although there is indeed a slight risk of more cancellations if the car isn't what's expected or production doesn't start on time (though the need-to-pay-for-now-running-Gigafactory incentive is a huge one to ensure it does), I think the addtional show of faith and new buzz this would create for the company would be well worth it. And I'm sure the injection of what might be a couple of hundred mil into the coffers, although not hugely significant, certainly wouldn't hurt and should help maintain investor confidence in this dark period where they obviously need to spend a hell of a lot more than they're making to finally build the car that will get them to the "big time".

    So, who's in??
     
  8. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    I'm 1 and 4. I'd be tempted to put money in because I'd want one mid 2019, but right now I see Tesla eating cash, heavily mortgaged. They have 6 months to get X production up to speed or die, and then they're also liable to face an Osborn Effect, as people stop buying up to get their S/X in anticipation of the Model 3. Plus, LG's Bolt is likely going to eat some of the marginal sales, and the Leaf 2 along with that mean that Tesla can't be conservative on the 3 release to head off the Osborn Effect.

    So, no, I'm not going to risk my money.
     
  9. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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    First: If Tesla opened for putting down deposit today, the media would just say that Tesla is so desperate for money that they even let people pay deposit for a car that they don't even have a prototype for. So no, Tesla should definitely not open that wormhole until they have shown us the car.


    And then - if I did put down a deposit today, about 2 years before the production start (if it's not delayed), how much earlier will I get the car comparing with on that reserves the car let's say 1 month before production start?
    - I will NOT be ordering a signature. So far "Founders" and "Signatures" are first in line, even if they get in the line just month before production start.
    - I live in Europe, and so far it seems like the European marked will only get they cars until the reservations in NA is more or less "used up". A car reserved in NA one month before production start may very well get their car before me.
    - I will NOT be ordering a "P110Q" with all the bells and whistles. So far it looks like Tesla is prioritizing it's deliveries on price/options. A "P110Q" ordered in Norway one month before production start may very well get their car before me (if I order a "bare bone" car).

    So the value of "an earlier production slot" is rather questionable for me - even if I want that car delivered ASP! Preferably yesterday! ;)

    ... but I would probably put down my deposit as soon as I can anyway :p
     
  10. Mad Hungarian

    Mad Hungarian Member

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    That's a definite possibility I hadn't considered.
    One way around it would be to make the pre-pre-reservation process "underground", that is no active public announcement or solicitation, just put it out there to current owners and forum/club members. I'm picturing something along the lines advance ticket sales to concerts offered only to fan club members. That way there's no scent of desperation for the press to pounce on.
    One could claim that might create anger on the part of short-changed "outsiders" who don't participate in clubs or forums and don't get the offer immediately. However I know I personally don't get upset when the first tickets to a show I want to see go to the fan club folks. If I really was that big a fan I would have signed up myself to follow the artist and gotten the same offer. And since we're still months away, these folks in turn could join up and get their reservations in.

    Does anyone know this for a fact? It's been the case for the S and the X, but there's a lot of speculation around here that the 3 needs to be different so as to avoid the negative impact of offering only expensive versions in the first year when such a large portion of this car's point is the accessible entry level price.

    I hear you. But I would really hope that they are working on a plan to expand the Tilburg facility to include the 3 final assembly for your area the way they've done for the S/X to speed availability there. There is a vague reference to this here: http://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-news/industry-news/tesla/teslas-dutch-factory-doubles-production-for-model-s-and-model-x-crossover/


    Well with a forum name like yours I should sure hope so! :biggrin::biggrin:
     
  11. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    As long as the deposit is refundable, I'm not sure how the existence of a deposit will necessarily make it significantly more disappointing if there was a delay. A delay would be disappointing regardless.

    Avoiding over-promising (whether in timeline or features) is probably the best approach regardless of the deposit.
     
  12. Mad Hungarian

    Mad Hungarian Member

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    #12 Mad Hungarian, Oct 23, 2015
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2015
    Fair enough, I think a lot of people will fall into Group 4 for exactly the reasons you describe, and they are all very legitimate. Conversely I don't wish to suggest that the Group 1 and 2 folks are fools (although I've been called worse :smile:), I just think some of us are willing to go out a lot further on the ledge because if you had told me 8 years ago where Tesla would be today I'd never in a million years have believed it. As daunting as the obstacles you describe are, I think this company and its team have surmounted worse and thrived.
     
  13. Nevek

    Nevek Overt Member

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    Personally, I'd like the option to role my existing production Model X reservation into a priority Model 3 reservation once MX production options, costs and delivery timeframes are fully revealed.

    I don't know at this point if I'd exercise that option, but the supposed M3 reservation date is a lot closer to the MX delivery date than I anticipated in early 2014. It would be good to have choices as the timeframes start to overlap.
     
  14. Cebe

    Cebe Member

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    If I was Tesla, I would start with a single variation of the Model 3, bare bones, rather than the top of the line.
     
  15. Fiver

    Fiver Member

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    While I think a lot of people would agree with you, I'd wager the accountants at Tesla don't. Sell high margin top profit cars first, worry about making less profitable cars once the expensive ones are out the door.
    No business in the world would choose less money first over more money first. The end result is the same (lots of money) but you use that fat infusion of initial cash to help speed up the whole manufacturing process, then start cranking out the cheap rubber stamp Model 3's when you've squeezed the rich out of their cash first.
     
  16. MassModel3

    MassModel3 Member

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    You're pretty confident that the Model 3 will be late, but I'm convinced that there will be at least some people driving it in 2017. With the X introduction, a few people were handed their keys just for show, but the majority of buyers are still waiting. That'll probably be what happens with the 3, so first quarter 2018 should see real deliveries. After all, even within the last couple weeks, Elon and JB are still saying 2017 and $35K. Plus, they've stated that engineers have been working on the 3 for the past few YEARS. I'm a believer. There's too much riding on the 3 for another debacle like the X.

    After the reveal of the 3 and it's amazing price tag (for a Tesla), there will be an exponentially growing amount of interest in this latest model. Pushing off the reservation process will mean that those of us who have been waiting for the reveal will then have to contend with thousands of people just buying into the latest press and newly learning about Tesla and their car for the masses. Opening reservations on the day of the reveal essentially rewards those of us who have been waiting impatiently for the Model 3 (by comparison).

    So no, they should absolutely not wait any time at all after the reveal before they begin taking reservations.
     
  17. Mad Hungarian

    Mad Hungarian Member

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    +1

    And three strong reasons why it shouldn't be late:
    1. Way simpler design and less content than S/X
    2. It's being repeated over and over that the Gigafactory is the key to starting 3 production ,and it's apparently ahead of schedule as per JB at U of Nevada presentation http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/55992-JB-Straubel-presentation-at-University-of-Nevada-Reno-10-11-15
    3. A finished Gigafactory can't just sit there with the meter running, it needs to pay bills and S, X and Powerwall won't be consume enough at the scale this thing is supposed to operate at. So they best be cranking out some 3's by then!!
     
  18. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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    No. But if they opened for reservations today - before the reveal - we will have to *assume* that Tesla will do with TM3 as they have done earlier. I'm in the camp that think that they should not make any TM3 Signature.


    First - cars to Norway (and Switzerland) does not go via Tilburg, we are not inside EU.

    And, if it was going through Tilburg, would not that just add to the already long transfer time from CA to Norway, and delay my delivery even more?

    - - - Updated - - -

    I would prefer that yes. But I don't think Tesla will have any choice here. At production start of the TM3 they will really have to show investors that they was right in putting their money on Tesla...
     
  19. Krugerrand

    Krugerrand Active Member

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    It's so awesome when someone tries to be super realistic and logical, then just says eff it, I'm in. :biggrin:
     
  20. sub

    sub Member

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    Tesla is not in danger of going under, worst case they issue more stock and move forward. Assuming the Model 3 design isn't a weird Mobile I'll be reserving day 1, minute 1 hopefully. I'll take a signature series fully optioned, thanks.
     

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