So Like it has been a Month, What If..

[Dansblum]

I predict:

DELIVERY schedule will be met as promised for those who order. But at much lower actual production numbers....as many reservation holders will not order.

This is based on my experience with my Model X. I reserved in October 2015, by which time they had stopped advertising the # of reservation holders, but they had previously had over 22000, so I figured I was at least 25000. In January I configured, I was told July delivery. All of a sudden mid-March I was told my car was in production and would be ready in two weeks, VIN # about 2600, as I recall. I had depended on ''July", and was in the middle of buying a new home, so I called up and deferred. They said Ok, when I closed on May 8th I told them 'ok, I'm ready!' I had my car June 7, vin 6458. I was NOT a signature, and I did NOT order a 'P' - just a plan 90D. I still could have moved ahead of over 20000 people. Maybe SOME because I'm in CA - but I suspect more because a lot of those reservations didn't turn into orders. And that was a 5000 deposit.

So...there was a lot of angst about the 5-seat not being available, the middle row not folding, etc. Just like there is a lot of angst on the Model 3 about (insert your favorite here). But I've hear a lot about people with multiple reservations....of 500K, I think 100k come through, maybe 150k. It won't matter overall as plenty of others will order and they'll still be supply-limited for a couple years. But much lower actual production output than forecasted can still get everyone who was given an estimated timeline (and actually orders) their car within that timeline.

Dan

 

[Stolz25]

So Tesla is making 50 Model 3's per day for the last 4 days....right?

You don't understand how an exponential ramp up works do you?

 

[Barklikeadog]

It looks to me like a pretty even distribution, with "4,000" and "more than 5,000" getting only 3 votes each, but 5,000 getting ten votes, as of this writing. I'd say the survey participants are pretty well divided. Of course, none of us has any actual data on which to base our guesses. Tesla says that my delivery will be first quarter 2018 if I go for "First Production" or a year from now if I go for Dual Motor. No estimate given for Dual Motor Performance version.

So my vote is that I'll probably get my car by the end of March if I go for First Production. However many cars per week it takes to accomplish that. Allowing for unforeseen delays, I'll have it by the end of April.

That's my guess.

The only data we have is the last 10 years of Tesla missing deadlines and producing/selling less than expected each quarter.

OMG...how can anyone here disagree with ELON? You will be burned at the stake. <-----sarcastic

You had better not disagree with Elon in here ( this forum ). So here are the official numbers.
Please don't say 5000 per week...because Elon didn't say that. <-----sarcastic
Please don't say 10000 bi-weekly because Elon didn't say that. <-----sarcastic
He said 20000 per month in Dec. Right?

Elon Musk on Twitter


Suggested users

• Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk Jul 3
  
  
  Replying to @elonmusk
  
  
  Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec
  
  1,033 replies 4,549 retweets 26,853 likes

don't be snarky. Tesla has yet to miss a deadline or quarterly production/sales number.

 

[Barklikeadog]

I predicted in a prior thread that there would be somewhere between 50-100 additional "hand wringing" threads started. By my count, we only now need an additional 49-99...

RT

not on a waiting list so no wringing going on here, just curiosity

 

[Garlan Garner]

You don't understand how an exponential ramp up works do you?

Once you start asking serious questions.....we can dialog.

 

[Garlan Garner]

No, the production ramp doesn't magically jump on the first of each month. It's a smooth curve that results in a total number for the month. If you look at their predicted production curve it stays pretty low for almost the first half of September before it begins to rise.

This is the predicted ramp that Tesla needs to be judged against:

View attachment 245621

Oh....so you are saying that there will be around 100 per day later on this month to make up for the 20 or so per day that's going on right now? Because the result will definitely be 1500....right?

 

[gregincal]

Oh....so you are saying that there will be around 100 per day later on this month to make up for the 20 or so per day that's going on right now? Because the result will definitely be 1500....right?

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. That's what exponential ramp means.

 

[Stolz25]

Oh....so you are saying that there will be around 100 per day later on this month to make up for the 20 or so per day that's going on right now? Because the result will definitely be 1500....right?

No one knows what it will be later, but if they were doing 50 a day right now they'd either:

A) make way more than 1500 because it'll ramp up past that or
B) there will be absolutely no improvement in the month of September and you'll get 1500.

That is why asking if they are making 50 a day right now is monumentally ridiculous.

 

[Stolz25]

Once you start asking serious questions.....we can dialog.

I could say the same. Asking questions so ridiculous about the quantity produced over the last few days I have to wonder if you are just trolling.

 

[Barklikeadog]

This must be spillover from the other So thread...

 

[Garlan Garner]

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. That's what exponential ramp means.

Absolutely.....I understood what an exponential ramp was.

The intent of my original post was to post numbers that someone would definitely have an urge to correct In other words....you want ramp numbers? Fine with me.

See....very few folks agree with any numbers I ever post the first time just because I'm who I am......so, why not make those some bogus numbers....and then go along with whatever numbers they want......that way we now have"their" numbers to challenge...not mine.

Psychology 101.

 

[gregincal]

Absolutely.....I understood what an exponential ramp was.

The intent of my original post was to post numbers that someone would definitely have an urge to correct

See....very few folks agree with any numbers I ever post the first time just because I'm who I am......so, why not make those some bogus numbers....and then go along with whatever numbers they want......that way we now have"their" numbers to challenge...not mine.

Psychology 101.

I'm really confused by your post. The only numbers I am ever quoting are Tesla's numbers, which are right up on the website for everybody to see. You keep posting strange beside the point numbers and questions. You can doubt the ramp if you want (and they may indeed fall behind), but everything that's happened so far is completely consistent with Tesla doing exactly what they've said they were going to do (as I've said at least 5 times in answer to your many posts).

 

[Runt8]

Absolutely.....I understood what an exponential ramp was.

The intent of my original post was to post numbers that someone would definitely have an urge to correct

See....very few folks agree with any numbers I ever post the first time just because I'm who I am......so, why not make those some bogus numbers....and then go along with whatever numbers they want......that way we now have"their" numbers to challenge...not mine.

Psychology 101.

In other words, you're trolling. Thanks for confirming.

 

[Garlan Garner]

In other words, you're trolling. Thanks for confirming.

Hey, you finally responded. You are incorrect, but thanks for responding instead of following me around disagreeing with my posts.

Hmmm.. what would you call that?......there's a word for that....... oh well, I'll think of it later.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I'm really confused by your post. The only numbers I am ever quoting are Tesla's numbers, which are right up on the website for everybody to see. You keep posting strange beside the point numbers and questions. You can doubt the ramp if you want (and they may indeed fall behind), but everything that's happened so far is completely consistent with Tesla doing exactly what they've said they were going to do (as I've said at least 5 times in answer to your many posts).

We both quoted Tesla numbers. 50 cars per day is 1500 per month. ALSO......20 cars per day in the beginning and 100 cars per day in the end could also yield 1500 per month. I don't care as long as they produce what they project.

I'm not doubting ramp. Lets do ramp. 100 cars per day in a few weeks. Great. Lets go with that. I'll be watching the posted production pictures for vin numbers around 800 or so soon. That would be fantastic news... right?

 

[Cloxxki]

If on a single day in December 645 units are completed, the 20,000/month RATE prophecy is true. And that could easily be part of a <10,000 month.

 

[gregincal]

We both quoted Tesla numbers. 50 cars per day is 1500 per month. ALSO......20 cars per day in the beginning and 100 cars per day in the end is also 1500 per month.

No, you made up 50 cars per day. There is not one place where they every said 50 cars per day in September, and Tesla's ramp graph above clearly shows that's not the way they are going to try and get to 1500 cars in September. So why even say it, when it's totally clear that's not the way it works.

 

[Garlan Garner]

No, you made up 50 cars per day. There is not one place where they every said 50 cars per day in September, and Tesla's ramp graph above clearly shows that's not the way they are going to try and get to 1500 cars in September. So why even say it, when it's totally clear that's not the way it works.

50 cars per day is 1500 divided by 30.

Elon said 1500 in September and I just divided 1500 by the number of days in September. That turns out to be 50. Someone mentioned the ramp....and I say fine....lets go with 20 or so right now.....and later this month lets say 100 or so per day. I don't care if its only 1 per day right now.....and 200 per day later.

How do you want to divide up the numbers to get to 1500? It does not matter to me.

 

[gregincal]

50 cars per day is 1500 divided by 30.

Elon said 1500 in September and I just divided 1500 by the number of days in September. That turns out to be 50. Someone mentioned the ramp....and I say fine....lets go with 20 or so right now.....and later this month lets say 100 or so per day. I don't care if its only 1 per day right now.....and 200 per day later.

How do you want to divide up the numbers to get to 1500? It does not matter to me.

If it doesn't matter to you then stop posting, otherwise I don't really see what value you are adding to the discussion. For those people seriously trying to track how Tesla is doing it matters very much.

 

[Garlan Garner]

If it doesn't matter to you then stop posting, otherwise I don't really see what value you are adding to the discussion. For those people seriously trying to track how Tesla is doing it matters very much.

NO no, It does matter how you get to 1500. however it matters how many are being made and if they are being made. Just like the OP asks.....how many have been made?

What are your ramp numbers? since 50 per day is so unrealistic. Give us a realistic number.