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so....some Model S will be out of WARRANTY soon *battery pack pricing

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Since Tesla is no longer manufacturing the discontinued 40-60-75-85 battery packs, any replacements will most likely be refurbished packs - likely packs that came back after a pack failure replacement from service. Tesla should be able to refurbish those packs to get them close to their expected capacities, though there's always the possibility a refurbished pack that had failed before has an undetected flaw

While warranty work using refurbs is to be expected, because they are only on obligation to get you driving again, I think it is unacceptable to pay full price fora mystery refurb battery out of warranty. They either better offer brand new packs, or offer a 4-8 year warranty on the new pack or both.
 
Spot on...!

Can you image paying $20k for a cobbled together used pack with some limited warranty, just to have it fail again. Too much money for a used pack with less than original warranty. This just might be the ploy they are embracing to generate new car sales.
 
I would assume that outside of warranty, tesla will either propose refurbished pack or new packs. They might have different warranties and pricing but I’d be surprised if one, outside the warranty, would pay for something without clear understanding of what one pay for.
But the again : assume makes an ass of u and me :)