so....some Model S will be out of WARRANTY soon *battery pack pricing

[maximizese]

Why hasn't the cost of the better packs improved if they are suppose to get less expensive as time goes by?

My guesses include:

1) They're just that expensive to produce.

2) Tesla has complete control over the production, inventory, and supply chain. It's possible that there is no excess and therefore a higher than favorable price.

3) Improvements in other battery packs and design has left the older designs on an island of incompatibility. From what I understand the newer battery packs are in no way compatible with the older Model S.

4) Limited demand encourages Tesla to not oversupply battery packs or modules.

 

[Chaserr]

From what I understand the newer battery packs are in no way compatible with the older Model S.

The Nurburgring test cars imply otherwise.

 

[ucmndd]

hellz i could care less bout a 20 - 30% range dropm...but 20-25K swaps are a crazy gamble.

As others have pointed out, this isn’t really different than any other out-of-warranty BMW or Mercedes with well documented expensive to fix problems.

Basically what happens is the car loses enough value that the decision is easy when one of these events happens. You scrap the car and move on to the next.

One Tesla positive in this case is the cars as of now seem to have a relatively high price floor due to the scarcity of aftermarket or third party parts. A completely dead early Model S can still sell in the low $20k range. My plan after the 8 year warranty is to basically treat it as “bonus time”, drive it until it grenades, sell for scrap, then move on.

 

[OrbiterTI4]

...
A completely dead early Model S can still sell in the low $20k range. My plan after the 8 year warranty is to basically treat it as “bonus time”, drive it until it grenades, sell for scrap, then move on.

I've wondered how long the "scrap floor" would hold at $20k, and how far into out-of-battery-warranty (2013s? 2014s?) before the "ok, not paying that replacement cost" pool of cars becomes enough to have it drop.

 

[ewoodrick]

my battery just completely died. like dead- towed in for battery swap.

hellz i could care less bout a 20 - 30% range dropm...but 20-25K swaps are a crazy gamble.

I'm gonna watch the price of 2012 & 2013's closer

Which battery? I'm guessing it was your 12V battery, not the big one.

 

[AMPd]

There’s only one car I’d keep longer than 3 years and it’s sitting in my garage right now.

So I’m not worried about the battery prices, however I don’t like the idea of these cars becoming throw aways after 8 years.

 

[ewoodrick]

Why hasn't the cost of the battery packs improved if they are suppose to get less expensive as time goes by?

Because it is using pretty much the same batteries, not newer ones like the Model 3.

The thing that I'd probably gripe about is the cost of having to pay for a full battery when Tesla will recondition a large portion of the old pack and make money off of it.

 

[r1200gs4ok]

Because it is using pretty much the same batteries, not newer ones like the Model 3.

The thing that I'd probably gripe about is the cost of having to pay for a full battery when Tesla will recondition a large portion of the old pack and make money off of it.

doesn't the new 2020 model S have the same new battery pack as the model 3

 

[ucmndd]

doesn't the new 2020 model S have the same new battery pack as the model 3

No.

 

[r1200gs4ok]

No.

hmmm.....my sales guy gave me a list of the 3 major changes in the new 2020 Model S......new battery pack, new air-suspension and new front motor

 

[tccartier]

The first Model S's were delivered just over 7 years ago (me included!)... I just checked, and my warranty is good for another year...

Me too.. Vin#162 lives on!

 

[ucmndd]

hmmm.....my sales guy gave me a list of the 3 major changes in the new 2020 Model S......new battery pack, new air-suspension and new front motor

And he was 2/3 correct. The “Raven” battery pack does indeed have a new part number revision as I recall... but that’s not particularly noteworthy. It is most definitely the same 18650 cell-based 100kwh pack that has been around more or less as-is since 2017. It’s definitely NOT a major revision, nor is it based on the Model 3’s 2170 cells.

 

[Retrospected]

my battery just completely died. like dead- towed in for battery swap.

hellz i could care less bout a 20 - 30% range dropm...but 20-25K swaps are a crazy gamble.

I'm gonna watch the price of 2012 & 2013's closer

Same happened to mine a few months ago. Got a message saying battery charging will be limited (not the winter message). It wasn't limited, it was unchargable... I was able to drive it to the SS with the range I had left, and they diagnosed it as a fault in the battery pack. They replaced the entire thing, which took about 2 weeks. I would be crushed If I had bought the car used a week earlier then that happened.

 

[arg617]

Comparing the cost to the cost of a similar class of vehicle's ICE engine is not really relevant. An ICE engine should never really require a new engine unless you either didn't maintain it, were careless while driving, or had a defective engine. This is different than an electric vehicle's battery which naturally degrades over time with nothing you can really do to maintain its capacity.
I see this as a major hurdle Tesla and other manufacturer's will have to overcome in order for electric vehicles to retain their appeal.

 

[BigNick]

There’s only one car I’d keep longer than 3 years and it’s sitting in my garage right now.

So I’m not worried about the battery prices, however I don’t like the idea of these cars becoming throw aways after 8 years.

Aftermarket to the rescue? Eventually, someone will reverse engineer the important parts if there's enough demand. That is a very big IF.
Also, Hyundai was the king of throwaway cars. Total crap, but hey, $4995 new!

 

[ucmndd]

Comparing the cost to the cost of a similar class of vehicle's ICE engine is not really relevant. An ICE engine should never really require a new engine unless you either didn't maintain it, were careless while driving, or had a defective engine. This is different than an electric vehicle's battery which naturally degrades over time with nothing you can really do to maintain its capacity.
I see this as a major hurdle Tesla and other manufacturer's will have to overcome in order for electric vehicles to retain their appeal.

Plenty of ICE cars have a motor with an expected service life in the 100-300k mile range before needing to essentially be completely overhauled or replaced. I don’t see this as fundamentally different than a battery pack with a similar expected service life.

All cars have a service life. I don’t necessarily agree with the idea that an ICE car should “never” need a new engine, though I guess it depends what you mean by “new”. Is a completely rebuilt motor with new rings, pistons, bearings, camshafts, etc etc etc “new” to you? I’d generally say yes. By the same measure, what happens when we start rebuilding battery packs, replacing individual modules and what not instead of the entire pack?

 

[random155]

I think there is a big difference between an ICE engine failure and battery pack failure. Most engine failures only require the repair of certain parts (timing chain, valves, heads, etc...), very very rarely does an entire engine need to be changed out. I also agree that as long as you maintain an ICE engine the probability of a repair above $5k-$10k is extremely rare. On the other hand, a battery pack failure is almost unpreventable and the cost is absurd. If anyone has advice on not having a battery pack failure, I'm all ears.

 

[Skotty]

Eventually, I think society will need more serviceable packs. Something where you can reasonably open up a pack and replace any bad cells or components. We kind of need this to reach maintenance parity with ICE vehicles for older cars.

If you have someone else replace an entire engine in a gas car, it could be pretty expensive I suppose. But someone mechanically inclined can do it far cheaper. I know, I've done it. I've bought a car with a blown engine and rebuilt the engine before. The cost wasn't that much (in the hundreds for all parts and machine work). We eventually need this capability on EVs.

 

[AMPd]

Aftermarket to the rescue? Eventually, someone will reverse engineer the important parts if there's enough demand. That is a very big IF.
Also, Hyundai was the king of throwaway cars. Total crap, but hey, $4995 new!

Maybe, after all most of the catastrophic failures weren’t the actual cells.
I’m hopeful but very doubtful that tesla will offer repair service for the battery. For example if a module fails, no need to replace the entire pack just the module, surely that’s a more affordable option.

Otherwise used cars in the 20s will be worthless as a car. Not many would want to spend that much only to be hit with another 20k bill

 

[Erleichda]

But do we have a report of actual cost out of warranty?