Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[anticitizen13.7]

Anyone who wants to buy into TSLA should do so now when things are looking down for the stock.

Nothing has changed for the fundamentals of the company. The Model S is still insanely great and getting better. Supercharger rollout rolls on. Markets overseas will ensure huge demand for years to come.

If Tesla becomes the manufacturing giant I believe it has the potential to become, and builds not only automobiles but power storage/buffer systems for alternative energy deployment, I can see it reaching a market cap of 200B+. Don't forget IP licensing as well.

I think that people buying in now could possibly see 10x return in a decade or so. Of course, there's A LOT of risk and a lot can go wrong. I think that things WILL go wrong from time to time. I want to emphasize again that this is not a stock for those with low risk tolerance.

A drop of 18% is quite steep, but long term investors should absolutely lose no sleep over this.

 

[bobinfla]

Five or six new Superchargers added this week makes the map look alot fuller. Looks like only a couple gaps left to fill and Elon will be able to announce both coasts can be driven top to bottom via Superchargers. That would be worth some good PR and hopefully a nice price bump. Some real news to combat the non-news.

 

[Convert2013]

Goodluck all and hold on. My prediction for 2014 ... Tesla will exit with a run rate approaching 80k a year! (here is to hoping)

edit: meant this sound reassuring but it sounds alarmist. If your options are after earnings I think you will be fine. If we go into earnings at this level hold through earnings

I am predicting 65k to 80k cars built next year as well. Elon is spending most of his time on increasing production volume.

 

[Jack6591]

Elon cries Bullsh*t

I respect a man that speaks in a loud and clear voice. The "Solar Electric Economy" makes great sense. It is a grounded viable future.

We have the technology, today.

 

[100thMonkey]

watching the ups and downs has been a very interesting process of getting to know ones emotions. there is some irony as I look back over the chart, the times I felt the most bullish and euphoric turned out to be the best times to sell and visa versa, about the time I really feel grim about things, that's when it's been the right time to buy. Oh how I wish I had a bunch of $$ in my sweep account right about now! The cars Tesla is cranking out right now have perfect fit and finish, seem remarkably reliable and have mouth watering performance, we are days away from being able to drive from Canada to Mexico on Super Chargers... this sure feels like a random lull prior to what will likely be a big climb up and over, a perfect time to buy. Of course no one can be sure of what the masses will do, and panicked stampedes do occur on occasion, which brings me back to the single most valuable piece of investment advice I've ever been given: "don't gamble what you can't afford to lose"! I do question, as it sounds like many are doing, "have I put too much on the line?" is that why I'm nervous or is this all just part of the jitters that comes with the territory of trading in new technology that has crazy, sky high potential? For now, I'm in long, barring some crazy stampede. The future looks very bright for Tesla, just as it did months ago.

 

[MikeC]

Great post, 100thMonkey, completely agree

 

[sub]

Exactly what I've been thinking. When TSLA shoots up everyone openly hopes for a dip so they can load up, confidence is high. The dip then presents itself and everyone panics. I'm not implying I've enjoyed the last week or two, but tesla is stronger than ever so I'm not worried about my shares. I almost pulled the trigger on some options but decided not to after weighing the risks. I'm confident in TSLA over these next 2-3 weeks and the long run, the medium term is going to be up and down as it has been.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

I think the worry people feel is about short term losses in options plays. Yes, nothing has changed in the fact that we all expect a blowout Q3 ER and long term TSLA upmarch so anyone holding 2014-2015 options should probably indeed chill out or add to their position.

However people who started to set up for the Q3 ER at the time of fire and afterwards on the dips (me included) do see now that if TSLA is beaten down pre-earnings to levels of ~$150-160, then even a blowout ER might not break even the November options trades. Something that was not even an issue when we were trading at the $180-190 range. THAT is what has people scared and contemplating exiting the positions now with loss when there is still almost a months worth of time value left in the positions.

I personally have November $190's with average price of $8.8 (averaged down on dips including two purchases yesterday). To make a profit without hedging I need the stock to reach at least $199 after ER. If we start from $160 that's over 20% upside. We might or might not see that. My original plan was to hedge on day of earnings when the stock has run up somewhat and has also gained on the IV and it's likely that's still what I'll do. However I am contemplating putting out a limit order that will eliminate half of my position at 0 cost if TSLA were to spike up at some days market open or mid-day while I'm not watching. Just to reduce risk and re-invest that money in longer term options (March or even 2015 Jan LEAPS).

I also have December $180 and $190 calls and for those I'm far less worried. They have a good 7 or so weeks on them and will have a full 5+ weeks after Q3 ER so most likely they'll end up very nicely ITM or at least I'll be able to hedge them at some point. For anything in 2014-2015 that I have (some March $200 and Jan 2015 $190) I only am disappointed I have no more cash to add to their positions now that they are cheaper than when I bought them...

 

[CyberDutchie]

When I checked premarket today and TSLA at 166 I thought oh sh*t! :scared:
Then I realized it's actually up :tongue: ...can't get used to seeing TSLA in the 160's, let's hope we leave there soon!

 

[Clemsons2k]

If this stock goes up today then I swear I'm magic. Every single time I buy a put or two for potential freefall, the stock rebounds the next day :biggrin:.

I'll just have to employ that tactic next time the stock goes down so I can save us all some money lol.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

If this stock goes up today then I swear I'm magic. Every single time I buy a put or two for potential freefall, the stock rebounds the next day :biggrin:.

I'll just have to employ that tactic next time the stock goes down so I can save us all some money lol.

Yes you and there was someone else who always bought calls just before the stock dropped need to keep posting your trades so that the rest of us can do the exact opposite

- - - Updated - - -

Ugh, so much about a push upwards. Selling pressure is still there and we're pushing TSLA into red again. No mentions of the press release in news section of IB so it's pure technical trading with no real big news. I think this will continue until we start to get more news and chatter on the upcoming ER. But it's not a good time to hold November options :/

 

[Clemsons2k]

Behold my powwwwwaaaaaa

:tongue:

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Haha, just complained and then Tesla took off again. Oh well at least I'm finally back in the green ($600 in the green, but green nevertheless) for the whole portfolio (solar+TSLA small recovery). Still red on most TSLA options though.

 

[hershey101]

Where do people see TSLA trading at pre-earnings (say next Friday)? If we close above $170 today, and then have another green candle tomorrow, could we see a rally back into the mid $180s by next friday or the following monday?

 

[Gtoffo]

Where do people see TSLA trading at pre-earnings (say next Friday)? If we close above $170 today, and then have another green candle tomorrow, could we see a rally back into the mid $180s by next friday or the following monday?

I think best case scenario would be some consolidation around 170$ and then slow climb to earnings...would give us a nice solid base for ER.

UPDATE: but I'm "worried" that once we break 170$ we will shoot up pretty quickly.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I think best case scenario would be some consolidation around 170$ and then slow climb to earnings...would give us a nice solid base for ER.

UPDATE: but I'm "worried" that once we break 170$ we will shoot up pretty quickly.

i worry all the time about making too much money

 

[Toolie]

Drake - Hold on we're going home! I got my eyes on you (TSLA):biggrin:

 

[100thMonkey]

I woke up thinking, what would happen if people stopped taking profits every time the stock peaked... are we our own worst enemies? Or I guess to put it more bluntly, at what point are the shorts taking profits at the expense of the longs? not pointing fingers, but just sayin'... then I think to myself, if everyone else is doing it, why shouldn't I? It's a little bit like that old episode of the twilight zone where a couple is presented with a button, if they press the button they get a million dollars but someone, somewhere gets the AX. They eventually push the button, get the money but then the button is taken away (and presumably given to someone else) and they are left to wonder if they might be next. to some extent, gambling is a blood sport.

 

[brianman]

Executed

1. 2013/10/21 TSLA NOV 16 13 CALL $215 @ 3.52
2. 2013/10/22 TSLA NOV 16 13 CALL $215 @ 2.77
3. 2013/10/22 TSLA NOV 16 13 CALL $215 @ 2.77
4. 2013/10/23 TSLA NOV 16 13 CALL $215 @ 2.02
5. 2013/10/23 TSLA NOV 16 13 CALL $215 @ 2.38

Those 215s would require the stock to appreciate ~33% in 3 weeks to break even. Seems ambitious as that level of rise didn't even happen after the Q2 results (134ish->168ish after 3 weeks).

Just an update for consideration...

With the stock now at $171 (call at $2.84) on 10/24, all of these are green except the initial set (-19.22%, +2.68%, +2.68%, +40.89%, +19.54%) with the group as a whole being up (5.66%).

I may start resolving them (sell to close) today or I might let them ride some more.

 

[austinEV]

We regained the 50 day MA but now it is acting as resistence. If we clear this (about 171) its blue sky to the 20da MA (about 180)