Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[AlMc]

TSLA above 150$ by the end of the day.........please?

I like your optimism :wink:

 

[ZenMan]

Looks like we could test the 133 support level this morning.

 

[dm33]

TSLA above 150$ by the end of the day.........please?

I think now we're going to have to wait for a statement from Tesla about the battery fires. Hopefully they will say they are looking into how to prevent such fires. As mentioned above, it doesn't cut it any more to say there's no problem. That would tank the stock. Perception is everything. Tesla can't ignore this any longer.

Elon wanted the stock to go lower, but this has gotten out of hand. He has a real crisis on his hands.

I'm hopeful a little reassurance, an announcement of a fix will fix the stock as well and we'll be back on the slow rise trajectory again.

Easiest fix might be just replacing the bottom shield with steel. But how do they prevent rust? Kevlar?
A deflector might make the problem worse, catching an edge of debris and flipping it up so it impales the battery. Raising the car would help, would be easy, but hurts its sports car image.
It would be nice if there was some way to prevent the fire even if impaled. More fire retardant foam, more separation between cells, more and smaller compartments in the pack.
The goal isn't necessarily to reduce damage but to prevent a fire.

 

[Gtoffo]

I think now we're going to have to wait for a statement from Tesla about the battery fires. Hopefully they will say they are looking into how to prevent such fires. As mentioned above, it doesn't cut it any more to say there's no problem. That would tank the stock. Perception is everything. Tesla can't ignore this any longer.

Elon wanted the stock to go lower, but this has gotten out of hand. He has a real crisis on his hands.

I'm hopeful a little reassurance, an announcement of a fix will fix the stock as well and we'll be back on the slow rise trajectory again.

Easiest fix might be just replacing the bottom shield with steel. But how do they prevent rust? Kevlar?
A deflector might make the problem worse, catching an edge of debris and flipping it up so it impales the battery. Raising the car would help, would be easy, but hurts its sports car image.
It would be nice if there was some way to prevent the fire even if impaled. More fire retardant foam, more separation between cells, more and smaller compartments in the pack.
The goal isn't necessarily to reduce damage but to prevent a fire.

How about saying it's not a "problem" but will take necessary steps to reduce the likelihood. Will consider reinforcing and in the mean time will raise via software the minimum height of the car at high speeds.

 

[shn]

^ Perfectly Said!

 

[ckessel]

You should do some more research on this but it's my understanding that the 2016 LEAPs are not substantially identical with your 2015 LEAPs since they are different strike and expiration dates, so you could just buy the 2016s without worrying about the wash rule.

Thanks DaveT, I'll check into how the 2016 works. I've had a hard time finding any rigorous definition of what's considered "substantially identical" . I've seen explanations that specifically say that different strike prices and dates aren't sufficient to avoid the wash sale rule, but it doesn't rule out that it could be sufficient if it's different enough, but what "enough" is doesn't appear to be well defined.

Edit: Holy crap Batman, I just spent a while reading through the IRS pub (550?) on the wash sale rules and it's just hopelessly confusing. I'd already committed to using a good tax CPA this year (never have before) and this just reinforces that. The examples and verbiage would seem to indicate almost any bet on TSLA: put, call, LEAP, weekly, whether a write or buy, etc would all be considered substantially identical.

 

[hoang51]

Looks like we could test the 133 support level this morning.

$133 just got breached. I thought it was going to hold around $135 and trade sideways, but it looks like people are still dumping and nobody is buying to prop it up so that a lot of the $135 put options go worthless.

 

[juan]

50 millions shares traded in the last 3 days already. That's about half the company outstanding share. This is getting out of hand.

 

[hoang51]

Today is quite interesting... Dip down to $132, then a jump back up to $136... Where will this stock end for the day? So confusing.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Short Term TSLA Investor Social Chat

Elon wanted the stock to go lower, but this has gotten out of hand. He has a real crisis on his hands.

Tesla needs to address both this specific incident near Nashville, and any concerns with the battery pack. They need to do this as soon as possible.

I'm not worried about the stock price. I am worried about damage to public perception because the longer potential customers see only bad headlines, the more damage done to future sales. My news feed is filled with gleeful headlines which are clearly crafted to be as damning (attention getting) as possible.

 

[yngwie_2012]

I think now we're going to have to wait for a statement from Tesla about the battery fires. Hopefully they will say they are looking into how to prevent such fires. As mentioned above, it doesn't cut it any more to say there's no problem. That would tank the stock. Perception is everything. Tesla can't ignore this any longer.

Elon wanted the stock to go lower, but this has gotten out of hand. He has a real crisis on his hands.

I'm hopeful a little reassurance, an announcement of a fix will fix the stock as well and we'll be back on the slow rise trajectory again.

Easiest fix might be just replacing the bottom shield with steel. But how do they prevent rust? Kevlar?
A deflector might make the problem worse, catching an edge of debris and flipping it up so it impales the battery. Raising the car would help, would be easy, but hurts its sports car image.
It would be nice if there was some way to prevent the fire even if impaled. More fire retardant foam, more separation between cells, more and smaller compartments in the pack.
The goal isn't necessarily to reduce damage but to prevent a fire.

You can either use a simple KTL-coating (very effective) or you can use stainless steel. Both are rust resistant.

 

[hoang51]

Taking a lunch break and I see there's a break out. It looks like we will hit $140 or so to take out that large $140 put options. Update: Looks like it just crossed $140 and backed down a bit.

 

[brianman]

On an average day TSLA seems to have a pretty regular pattern of V where the bottom of the V is at noon ET.

 

[MikeC]

Nice to be flirting with green again.

 

[hoang51]

Well, I think it's about game over for options players for today. I think the stock will stabilize around the $140 mark, unless there is major development news to swing the stock price either way. I wanted to get in for the $140 swing upwards, but I was too late.

 

[Cameron]

Thoughts on Elon making a statement this weekend regarding the latest fire?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Thoughts on Elon making a statement this weekend regarding the latest fire?

I think it would depend on how long Tesla's investigation takes. I have no idea when Elon would release a statement, but I hope more info is available soon.

 

[NigelM]

Thoughts on Elon making a statement this weekend regarding the latest fire?

The textbook response would be to investigate and if, in the meantime, the storm blows over just issue a low-key statement; if the storm doesn't blow over then you make a higher profile announcement.

 

[Chickenlittle]

The textbook response would be to investigate and if, in the meantime, the storm blows over just issue a low-key statement; if the storm doesn't blow over then you make a higher profile announcement.

With other crises it has taken 4 days whether first fire, border review. I think this May take longer with other factors in this including potential recall ,NTSb investigation and class action suit. I think there is more on the line

 

[tslafan123]

Statement is here: from the "owner"

From a Model S owner in Tennessee | Blog | Tesla Motors

"This experience does not in any way make me think that the Tesla Model S is an unsafe car. I would buy another one in a heartbeat."