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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

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Originally Posted by Wenche viewpost-right.png I'm joining the lottery again; bought 2 weeks (14th) 2 Calls 180 for 4,25 on Wednesday, sold 1 today for 8,50, will let the 2nd run. Also bought 4 week (28TH) 2 x 190 FOR 7,25, will sell the 1st one for 14,50. Already 11.9 after two days. I feel like a novice on this short time options, so I go for options at least one week+ ahead. I also hold a March call 150, bought for $49 some time a go, that I do not know where it is headed, as the time premium is going down. Thinking of rolling to 2 x 180. Any thoughts?
My balance is 1109 stocks and 11 call options DTM Jan 16, from 60 and up.

How many Model S have you made now Wenche? I also believe you are the one of the only one here who have never sold a single share?

Good luck btw, I got some $190 for next week.

Thank you, Norse. Right, never sold a single share, but I believe I have company of several others here at TMC.
Well, I thought I made the Model S and the Model X, but I completely forgot about the taxes ;) I will try to gain some more, by joining the lottery.
By the way, I sold my 2nd week2 180 call for $19 today, nice gain for less than a week. Didn't have the stomach to let it run further. Sold the 1st week4 190 for $14,50, will let the 2nd run some time ...
Good luck to you too :)
 
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I think Andrea went from a humble analyst to a VP at her firm (or is it partner?) from her TSLA fame. Is this the norm in the industry. One correct gutsy call and you are set for life. It reminded me of Meredith Whitney's Cith bank prediction.

She reminds me of a hippie friend of mine... but who had a chance to climb wallstreet. Glad to see the transformation.

TMC is full of people that made one correct gutsy call and got set for life. ;)

It still amazes me every time I watch these analysts videos. My thoughts are always the same "they just don't get it".

Remember the first iPod? They said it didn't have enough battery life and couldn't go "the distance".

I just got another email yesterday from a friend, "Do you think it's too late to buy the stock?". I should forward him the one I got from a friend last year asking the same question saying "$32 is just too expensive." He didn't buy.

I can't believe the dude in the video said it could stay here or go back to $100.

And the guy in the other video shouting short it, it's crazy, they can't make that much profit."

Will they still say things like this 5 years from now?
 
TMC is full of people that made one correct gutsy call and got set for life. ;)

It still amazes me every time I watch these analysts videos. My thoughts are always the same "they just don't get it".

Remember the first iPod? They said it didn't have enough battery life and couldn't go "the distance".

I just got another email yesterday from a friend, "Do you think it's too late to buy the stock?". I should forward him the one I got from a friend last year asking the same question saying "$32 is just too expensive." He didn't buy.

I can't believe the dude in the video said it could stay here or go back to $100.

And the guy in the other video shouting short it, it's crazy, they can't make that much profit."

Will they still say things like this 5 years from now?

I've been asking around. The ones on TMC are mostly on their 4th or 6th black swan event that they got right. It just seems like thye rose to fame in one shot. But to be a comfortable millionaire, you still need ag least a $100 000 investment at Tesla's ipo which is not trivial for middle class. Now imagine a conservative allocation for a risk asset like tesla, most ppl would put no more than 10% of their net worth in it. Which means that most of those who made 1 million + on tesla were Already millionaires.
 
Made an excellent discovery last night :D I had at some point bought $200 Feb 21st calls as pre-ER play. Now that TSLA has had a run up I've been making most of my ER plays risk free or taken profit, but somehow I had deleted those calls from my watchlist meaning that over the last week I never saw them progress. Last night while going over my positions I discovered them to my great surprise and was happy to see that my initial investment of $4.2 / contract had turned into $13 / contract :D Had I remembered them earlier I'd have probably closed them on Friday for profit, but because I forgot I enjoyed selling them when TSLA hit $200 :D Well I sold half and made the other half 200..225 risk free with pocketing ca 25% of the initial investment as cash.

Yay for forgetfulness. I'm now 30% cash on my portfolio and about 40% TSLA with majority of it being LEAPs. I also consolidated my 2015 LEAPs from 140,180,210 strikes to 300. Will have to think if that's a good idea or not ;) If the ER is positive it should be. But maybe instead of N at 300 I should have N/2 at a lower strike...
 
I also consolidated my 2015 LEAPs from 140,180,210 strikes to 300. Will have to think if that's a good idea or not ;) If the ER is positive it should be. But maybe instead of N at 300 I should have N/2 at a lower strike...

Congrates on forgetfulness! And welcome to the J15 $300 party. I've had a bunch of these for a long while along with another set of J15 $250s. Those expire right around the potential GENIII reveal at the NA Auto show. Just sayin
 
Toyota announces a recall of 1.9million Priuses for a software update. It would be nice if someone could think of a way to send out software updates in a non-physical manner, is anyone working on a technology like that? You know, some sort of inter-device network. What could we call it...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/12/toyota-recall-idUST9N0KP02J20140212

Here we are with the car which was supposedly the most high-tech car of the last decade, and it doesn't even know how to use the internet for software. Does anyone doubt how slow the rest of the auto industry is to learn new things?
 
Maybe somewhat off topic - Tuesday night was a presidential dinner with Pres. Hollande of France at the White House, guess who was on the guest list?

Mr. Elon Musk, Los Angeles, CA
Mrs. Talulah Musk
Hollandes State Dinner: The Guest List - Washington Wire - WSJ

Didn´t they divorce in 2012? Has this something to do with "Everyhting is awesome?" :)?

Elon needs Talulah to keep him from going king crazy. However as a shareholder. Some of the most insane growths in stock prices are from when Elon is not married. So I am torn. On one side, I want Elon to be happy, on the other I want him to make mi richer.
 
Elon needs Talulah to keep him from going king crazy. However as a shareholder. Some of the most insane growths in stock prices are from when Elon is not married. So I am torn. On one side, I want Elon to be happy, on the other I want him to make mi richer.

Not to pry on their marital situation, but, I think both Talulah and Elon have figured out what works. I think she's indeed helping him not go king crazy while giving him the room he needs (i.e. work 80-hour weeks). He must be happy to have her presence in the boys' lives as well. So, in balance, I think she's helping Tesla's (and SpaceX's) cause.
 
I've been asking around. The ones on TMC are mostly on their 4th or 6th black swan event that they got right. It just seems like thye rose to fame in one shot. But to be a comfortable millionaire, you still need ag least a $100 000 investment at Tesla's ipo which is not trivial for middle class. Now imagine a conservative allocation for a risk asset like tesla, most ppl would put no more than 10% of their net worth in it. Which means that most of those who made 1 million + on tesla were Already millionaires.
While I generally agree with your point, a lucky options strategy could have yielded a huge return. As I recall, someone posted that he had achieved a 7000% return on a very small starting wager. Such a strategy isn't always scalable, though, because TSLA options don't have the liquidity to absorb really large investments. We already see very wide bid-ask spreads in OTM call options.
 
While I generally agree with your point, a lucky options strategy could have yielded a huge return. As I recall, someone posted that he had achieved a 7000% return on a very small starting wager. Such a strategy isn't always scalable, though, because TSLA options don't have the liquidity to absorb really large investments. We already see very wide bid-ask spreads in OTM call options.

2015 $200. I think I saw that post as well. I faintly remember that the premium of those far otm options didn't reflect the volatility of the stock and the stock was hovering around $100 at the time. The premiums were like $10 or something. I suspect the person and his brother were experienced options traders though.