Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[AlMc]

So this drop obviously sucks and there's no reason for it (not even a bad reason for it), but I have to say I'm a lot more fine with it than the last one(s). The stock is still extremely high compared to all my entry points, all my non-speculative plays are still doing fine, and I managed to sell enough to cover most of my debit at the top (and since have gone into a little more debit on the way down ). I'd like to see a 10% recovery or so in the next 2 weeks, but if that doesn't happen then I'm still not out all that much.

Now I need to decide if/when I want to become a buyer again, and it's looking pretty attractive right now, but I would have to use margin to do so. Either way, I've got a ton of margin left, and shouldn't have to worry about a call unless we have another 50% drop or something.

Also, this ER, just like Q3's, was very positive, and the call was phenomenal. Everyone just seems to be reacting to the headlines, and to the stock price, rather than what was actually announced. So I feel like this is another temporary drop with no good reasons behind it, just like q3 was, only this time we hopefully won't have months of the entire mass media trying as hard as they can to make the drop seem justified by making something out of nothing.

Unfortunately I don't see analysts upgrading their PTs, because most of their PTs are already set fairly appropriately, but maybe one of the few remaining loser analysts might get it together and give a real PT with a real research report for once, kind of like Goldman finally got around to doing last time around. I also don't see anyone downgrading, because there's simply no bad news and plenty of good news.

Used 1/2 of my available 'investment' cash to add stock and LEAPS J16 200's and 250s and a last minute May 9 180 for $2 Willuse another 1/4 if 160 and last 1/4 at 140. I don't trust myself with margin :wink:

 

[FluxCap]

I feel like for a moment, I had the pulse of the rigged Wall Street game played by the market makers and HFTs, and beat it at its own game. But today, they kicked my tiny little retail ass.

Nova Scot sums up how I feel today. He's a veteran member over on Sleepy and Norse's forum. Hope he doesn't mind me posting this here:

It just feels like people, the little guys, are on the run now. They can't make sense of this, so they're selling, running around, shouting, upset. Oh, I'm sure it can get worse, but we're just plain seeing day after day when even companies that come in with very good, solid reports, are getting hammered. The official financial press always looks for SOME item they can pin the sell-off/weakness on, but let's face it... it's not the things they say. It's not interest rates of the Ukraine or the latest stat to come out or anything to do with China. Because even when good numbers come out, or tensions ease, they go at it again. These ****wits might as well be working for Pravda. I mean, "Investors are no longer chasing growth stocks?" Seriously?


All the big boys are doing, and I do mean ALL they're doing, is taking the growth stocks, genuine or faked up, and destabilizing them until people sell, and start running around and have no sense of the underlying value of these companies, and can't judge whether this 5% fall is a one-off or one of many. And then... they shake some more. And all the time, the big boys hold tight to what they have. So that ultimately, they walk out with more shares, in the rising companies, for 1/2 price. And that way, THEY own the next wave growth, the little guy gets burned, and on it rolls.


Solar? They'l own it. Hell, as it is, we all hope for MORE buy-in from the "institutional" guys, don't we? In the hope that it will make the shaking and the instability stop.


No wonder I steered clear of the stock side of this in life, and stuck to the technology and the policy and the public mobilization. And my buddies who ran hedge funds and big consulting firms and so on (Confession: I got good networks, it's a school thing) always said, "Nova-boy.... You really don't want to look under the hood 0f the market." And when I'd occasionally hear a story, of the inner workings, I'd have to go take a long walk, and a long swim in a lake. I mean, I knew politics, and just how dirty it gets. And media, I know how it's played.


But this ****? This is just fracking thievery.

 

[person]

I feel like for a moment, I had the pulse of the rigged Wall Street game played by the market makers and HFTs, and beat it at its own game. But today, they kicked my tiny little retail ass.

Nova Scot sums up how I feel today. He's a veteran member over on Sleepy and Norse's forum. Hope he doesn't mind me posting this here:

Thank you for that post. Now that explains it. That's the answer to my question, which was why the price drop, it makes no sense. So it's probably the result of behind the scenes manipulation. I'm not a fan of conspiracy theories but there you are.

Tesla is doing good. The news was good. Any sane person would have wanted in. The price drop and the headlines of doom and gloom offended my sense of reality, so thanks for that post. I'm not crazy, yay.

 

[sleepyhead]

Thank you for that post. Now that explains it. That's the answer to my question, which was why the price drop, it makes no sense. So it's probably the result of behind the scenes manipulation. I'm not a fan of conspiracy theories but there you are.

Tesla is doing good. The news was good. Any sane person would have wanted in. The price drop and the headlines of doom and gloom offended my sense of reality, so thanks for that post. I'm not crazy, yay.

At least with TSLA, I knew right away that it would go down today. But with JASO, it had a great ER, beat all estimates, and gave good guidance; and the stock still got crushed.

JASO is the one that makes no sense at all. Same goes for FSLR the other day: went up 5% AH on ER. Started up 5% pre-market and then crashed during the day for no reason. With TSLA it was pretty obvious that it will be a down day based on ER...

 

[ckessel]

With TSLA it was pretty obvious that it will be a down day based on ER...

I'm still not grasping why. Tesla met or beat what they said they'd do. Why was it obvious to you that meeting/beating guidance would be a bad thing?

 

[Cwin]

I'm still not grasping why. Tesla met or beat what they said they'd do. Why was it obvious to you that meeting/beating guidance would be a bad thing?

Because they usually beat by a lot more. 10-15% on deliveries at least, not 0.8%. if you fail to beat by your usual beat, is it still a beat?

 

[dmunjal]

I'm still not grasping why. Tesla met or beat what they said they'd do. Why was it obvious to you that meeting/beating guidance would be a bad thing?

Based on what happened to FB and others, yes.

 

[The Blue Owl]

All I can say is, compared with the heavy losses in my Jan15 options (unrealized yet), when I look at my stock position it feels like a paragon of safety. I *so* don't care if the stock falls another 30%. I know it will come back even if it takes years.

My options... they were so pretty when they were young, now they are old, shrunken and ugly.

 

[FANGO]

Because they usually beat by a lot more. 10-15% on deliveries at least, not 0.8%. if you fail to beat by your usual beat, is it still a beat?

Yes. Duh. A beat is a beat, the future exists, and things actually happened over the last 6 months, no matter how much you try to deny the reality of all these things.

All I can say is, compared with the heavy losses in my Jan15 options (unrealized yet), when I look at my stock position it feels like a paragon of safety. I *so* don't care if the stock falls another 30%. I know it will come back even if it takes years.

My options... they were so pretty when they were young, now they are old, shrunken and ugly.

I feel similar about my options, but they were purchased mainly as stock replacement for the shares/LEAPs I sold at 240ish, intended to capture upside if things kept going up, while limiting downside to some extent, and in that case they seem to have done well at doing so. And they've got over a year and a half to make their way back (I have all '16s). Should have sold some more I suppose but I was stupidly scared by the tax man. Oh well, I would have just spent it on other options by now anyway

 

[Cwin]

Yes. Duh. A beat is a beat, the future exists, and things actually happened over the last 6 months, no matter how much you try to deny the reality of all these things.

Dude I'm not the one in denial. Give me an explanation for today's price action that isn't "you just aren't listening, you just don't understand the company, the market doesn't want tesla to succeed, HFT's did it" and I'll buy some options if its convincing enough.

I've done my best to expain where I'm coming from, what my thinking is, why I think earnings were received the way they were and where I think it will take us into next week.

Why don't you give it a shot.

 

[FANGO]

Dude I'm not the one in denial.

You are explicitly in denial. You are saying a beat wasn't a beat, and that stock prices have nothing to do with future expectations for a company. There is no way to reconcile either of those statements with reality.

 

[mitch672]

You want an explanation? Its very very simple. Wall Street is rigged by large Hedge Funds, who basically conspire to push up certain stocks they target (of course they own them for low money), when they've run up to sufficient nose-bleed money, they take their profits, and begin shorting.. They wait for some bad news, or event, and call their "news" buddies to push out stories of overvaluation, doom and gloom, whatever it takes to create panic for the retail investors, who promptly panic sell, and start the process of driving the price down.. some time goes by, they hedgies cover their shorts, and start buying again. miracle of miracles, "good news" stories and positive press starts appearing on the company, and they ride it up again. rinse and repeat. It's very difficult to watch, and should be illegal, and these funds should be prosecuted, they are basically thieves, robbing people. this has been going on in the market forever, but we thought TSLA was "special", turns out TSLA isn't special. I say hang in, because what goes around, comes around. TSLA will execute on their long term plan, Elon has delivered on every thing he's stated so far, maybe later than was promised, but he's always gets it done. TSLA will one day be the most valuable company on the NASDAQ, long after no one remembers Facebook, Twitter, etc.

 

[Cwin]

You are explicitly in denial. You are saying a beat wasn't a beat, and that stock prices have nothing to do with future expectations for a company. There is no way to reconcile either of those statements with reality.

And you've offered no better explanation other than "You are wrong". C'mon, if I'm so out of touch with reality then give me a new model of it to work with.

- - - Updated - - -

You want an explanation? Its very very simple. Wall Street is rigged by large Hedge Funds, who basically conspire to push up certain stocks they target (of course they own them for low money), when they've run up to sufficient nose-bleed money, they take their profits, and begin shorting.. They wait for some bad news, or event, and call their "news" buddies to push out stories of overvaluation, doom and gloom, whatever it takes to create panic for the retail investors, who promptly panic sell, and start the process of driving the price down.. some time goes by, they hedgies cover their shorts, and start buying again. miracle of miracles, "good news" stories and positive press starts appearing on the company, and they ride it up again. rinse and repeat. It's very difficult to watch, and should be illegal, and these funds should be prosecuted, they are basically thieves, robbing people. this has been going on in the market forever, but we thought TSLA was "special", turns out TSLA isn't special. I say hang in, because what goes around, comes around. TSLA will execute on their long term plan, Elon has delivered on every thing he's stated so far, maybe later than was promised, but he's always gets it done. TSLA will one day be the most valuable company on the NASDAQ, long after no one remembers Facebook, Twitter, etc.

This gets pulled out everytime someone loses their butt on a momentum stock. "THE RICH MEN DID IT, THE HFTS DID IT, THEY WANNA TAKE MAH MONAH" it doesn't explain anything, it just pushes responsibility for your bad decisions onto someone else.

 

[The Blue Owl]

You want an explanation? Its very very simple. Wall Street is rigged by large Hedge Funds, who basically conspire to push up certain stocks they target (of course they own them for low money), when they've run up to sufficient nose-bleed money, they take their profits, and begin shorting.. They wait for some bad news, or event, and call their "news" buddies to push out stories of overvaluation, doom and gloom, whatever it takes to create panic for the retail investors, who promptly panic sell, and start the process of driving the price down.. some time goes by, they hedgies cover their shorts, and start buying again. miracle of miracles, "good news" stories and positive press starts appearing on the company, and they ride it up again. rinse and repeat. It's very difficult to watch, and should be illegal, and these funds should be prosecuted, they are basically thieves, robbing people.

For a master class in the dark arts of market manipulation, listen to Jim Cramer explain how he used to move the stock of RIM, Apple, and others because it was "legal, and very satisfying."

Those who haven't seen this before: do yourselves a favour and give it a listen.

 

[FANGO]

And you've offered no better explanation other than "You are wrong". C'mon, if I'm so out of touch with reality then give me a new model of it to work with.

You came in here guns blazing talking about how you know exactly what the stock is going to do and nobody should buy it until you give your say-so because your crystal ball which predicts the future which you don't think exists says shorting is the only safe thing to do. This is nonsense. Then you went on to say that the company has done nothing for the last 6 months, that apparently the stock didn't rise in that time period, that future performance has nothing to do with stock prices, that 10 is a bigger number than 12, and so on. And you want me to respond to this paragon of reality-acknoledgement to answer some random moved goalpost of a question which hasn't been part of the discussion all along, and claim victory if I refuse to play your game. Because I haven't talked about what I think is about to happen, nor have I talked about my explanation for what happened, and neither has been my intent, all I've done is counter the aforementioned nonsense you keep laying down over and over in every thread, and that has been my whole objective here.

 

[sleepyhead]

You want an explanation? Its very very simple. Wall Street is rigged by large Hedge Funds, who basically conspire to push up certain stocks they target (of course they own them for low money), when they've run up to sufficient nose-bleed money, they take their profits, and begin shorting.. They wait for some bad news, or event, and call their "news" buddies to push out stories of overvaluation, doom and gloom, whatever it takes to create panic for the retail investors, who promptly panic sell, and start the process of driving the price down.. some time goes by, they hedgies cover their shorts, and start buying again. miracle of miracles, "good news" stories and positive press starts appearing on the company, and they ride it up again. rinse and repeat. It's very difficult to watch, and should be illegal, and these funds should be prosecuted, they are basically thieves, robbing people. this has been going on in the market forever, but we thought TSLA was "special", turns out TSLA isn't special. I say hang in, because what goes around, comes around. TSLA will execute on their long term plan, Elon has delivered on every thing he's stated so far, maybe later than was promised, but he's always gets it done. TSLA will one day be the most valuable company on the NASDAQ, long after no one remembers Facebook, Twitter, etc.

Yep!

You have to think like Wall St., and for that reason I thought that it would be a good idea to stay away from this TSLA ER. I even wrote a few cautionary posts before ER.

TSLA really needed 9k- 10k delivery guidance for Q2 to get back to positive momentum and have a chance to retest ATH.

Wall St. was set to sell no matter what. Only reason that SCTY went up big is because Wall St. Is very ignorant and they don't understand solar. Everyone here on TMC knew that SCTY will do close to 1GW next year, but Wall St. did not know and got blindsided with 2015 Guidance.

Otherwise SCTY ' S ER was a miss and the stock would have tanked today. Lyndon and Elon knew that the stock would tank probably back into the $30 ' s so they gave 2015 guidance to turn this around. I mean after all, nobody gives next year's guidance in May...

 

[mitch672]

This gets pulled out everytime someone loses their butt on a momentum stock. "THE RICH MEN DID IT, THE HFTS DID IT, THEY WANNA TAKE MAH MONAH" it doesn't explain anything, it just pushes responsibility for your bad decisions onto someone else.

I have no bad decisions, my TSLA average buy in is $81, I'm fine. My 5 Jan16 230 Calls on the other hand, well, they've lost 1/2 their value, they still have 18 months left, that's forever for TSLA. The market is heavily manipulated, the trick is to figure out how, and play the same game. I'm in it for the long term, 2020 or so, so these gyrations don't bother me much... hurts a bit to see $40K vaporize in 3 days, but it's par for the course.

 

[ckessel]

Well, still doesn't make much sense to me. A company says we'll do X. People decide X is worth some stock price. Company does X, just like they said. Everyone panics and sells?

The market is insane. I suppose insane in both rise and fall, but insane. It'd seem to make giving guidance pointless. Why does Tesla even bother?

 

[SteveG3]

This gets pulled out everytime someone loses their butt on a momentum stock. "THE RICH MEN DID IT, THE HFTS DID IT, THEY WANNA TAKE MAH MONAH" it doesn't explain anything, it just pushes responsibility for your bad decisions onto someone else.

Cwin, I don't consider Tesla a momentum stock. Yes, the move from $190 down to $120 in the fall and the day or two jump from $210 to $265 had large momentum aspects, but the move from $30 to the $200 range was not a momentum move.

I think Tesla's move over the past few years is much more about fundamentals than traders and momentum. Think of Tesla like a biotech. Basically, between the fall 2012/spring of 2013 they went from substantial risk of going bust to having their first significant drug, the Model S approved by the FDA followed quickly by stellar write ups in the New England Journal of Medicine (i.e. Consumer Reports, Motor Trend...), leading to rapid strong uptake by physicians (sales to date far outpacing what Tesla was suggesting in 2012). In the 9 months since, they've entered the European market and they are now entering China. They've also got this drug slated for approval in a second indication with an equally big market to the first indication in 6-9 months, that being the Model X on the Model S/X platform. Finally, they have a derivative compound, the Gen III platform, which is in Phase 3 testing, and has a far larger addressable market, roughly 10X, than the first drug they've passed. The company has shared very encouraging data on trials to date on this Gen III drug, and it has a very high probability of approval circa 2017.

Small biotechs riding completely on their first drugs approval can and do go up 2 or 3X on FDA approval. Expanding into the EU and Asia, is likely going to expand Tesla's revenues 3X. A biotech whose first and only drug gets approval in a second indication with an equally large market can double. Whey you look at the magnitude of these events, Tesla's 7X move from $30 to $210 is a value move, not "momo." Tesla's revenue growth from 2011 through today and what's projected the next 3 and 5 years also parallel a biotech winner.

while it's worth noting the "momo" tag given Tesla (and as I said there is a small aspect of the move for which this is accurate), and realizing Tesla is likely to go down more than average in a sharp selloff, ultimately, the move since 2012 has been based on fundamentals, and if there is such a selloff, Tesla's fundamental value will lead to a rebound in TSLA that will simply not be seen by any stocks it is currently being lumped in with whose recent gains were predominantly "momo" based.

 

[Cwin]

You came in here guns blazing talking about how you know exactly what the stock is going to do and nobody should buy it until you give your say-so because your crystal ball which predicts the future which you don't think exists says shorting is the only safe thing to do. This is nonsense. Then you went on to say that the company has done nothing for the last 6 months, that apparently the stock didn't rise in that time period, that future performance has nothing to do with stock prices, that 10 is a bigger number than 12, and so on. And you want me to respond to this paragon of reality-acknoledgement to answer some random moved goalpost of a question which hasn't been part of the discussion all along, and claim victory if I refuse to play your game. Because I haven't talked about what I think is about to happen, nor have I talked about my explanation for what happened, and neither has been my intent, all I've done is counter the aforementioned nonsense you keep laying down over and over in every thread, and that has been my whole objective here.

Jesus, at least I go through the trouble of formatting my aforementioned nonsense.

I posted my explanations for whats going on. If it's wrong then give a better one. I've done it without insulting you or talking down to you, or have at least tried.

Everyone hear comes to these forums to learn and share. At least do it for the benefit of other idiots that might be thinking like me.