Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[The Blue Owl]

Ha! Tesla just got an out-of-the-blue endorsement on CNBC.

The host asked the guest, at the end of a short interview, what company she admired most, and the answer was, "well, TESLA!" And who was the fearless endorser? Jennifer Anniston.

So now, real housewives in Cali and elsewhere might consider picking up a Model S after shopping for their hair care products (which Aniston was there to push.) $250 must be just around the corner!

 

[Cwin]

Thank you Jennifer Anniston.

 

[FluxCap]

Really market? Really? Massive 3-year profit potential is de-risked heavily in the latest ER, but no, it takes Rachel from Friends to increase the market cap of Tesla Motors?

 

[GravityPull]

apparently the the whole point about their business being production constrained. Despite lack of marketing, despite lack of a dealer network, despite a multi month wait to actually get your car.

Why should tesla only launch a car in the US? Please name another auto company doing something that asinine?

why don't you share your wisdom regarding second, third and fourth quarter sales with us? That way we can check back in during the rest of this year and see if tesla continues to grow per mgmt guidance (my bet) or whatever it is you see?

Everybody knows Tesla is production constrained.

Is there absolutely no concern that the "Hail Mary Delivery" of cars to Norway was so last minute?
was this just a one time mistake by management?

 

[MikeC]

Everybody knows Tesla is production constrained.

Is there absolutely no concern that the "Hail Mary Delivery" of cars to Norway was so last minute?
was this just a one time mistake by management?

I wouldn't characterize it as a mistake. They delivered what they said they would, in the month they said they would.

 

[SteveG3]

Everybody knows Tesla is production constrained.

Is there absolutely no concern that the "Hail Mary Delivery" of cars to Norway was so last minute?
was this just a one time mistake by management?

Gravity, you raised some questions, several of us responded. 30seconds and myself have now taken a turn in asking you some questions... are you interested in taking a turn in answering?

 

[AlMc]

Everybody knows Tesla is production constrained.

Is there absolutely no concern that the "Hail Mary Delivery" of cars to Norway was so last minute?
was this just a one time mistake by management?

Am I concerned...Yes. Greatly concerned: No. Why: I have no idea why they made that many Norway deliveries in Q1.....and we won't know. They made their guidance, appear to be well received in China; NA demand growth of 10%; supply constrained. I am not even worried about the X. If I have real concerns/worries it is about Gigafactory/ability to ramp up from say 100,000 X/S production that they are capable of with Panasonic increased battery delivery to enough batteries from the Gigafactory for an additional 300-500,000 Gen III in 3 years.

 

[GravityPull]

You are missing the fact that some of the logistics are easier if you ship lots of vehicles to the same place at the same time. Also I believe some incentives in Norway go away at the end of the year, so it was advantageous for Tesla to really saturate the country early.

Evidently the logistics weren't so easy. Otherwise they wouldn't have needed to rush employees from other parts of the world to Norway in last few days of the quarter in a desparate attempt to barely meet projected delivery numbers.

from what I understand Norway's incentives to buy electric vehicles are Not going away this year. Am I wrong?

 

[AlMc]

Evidently the logistics weren't so easy. Otherwise they wouldn't have needed to rush employees from other parts of the world to Norway in last few days of the quarter in a desparate attempt to barely meet projected delivery numbers.

from what I understand Norway's incentives to buy electric vehicles are Not going away this year. Am I wrong?

Based on another poster's comments the Norway incentives, while not guaranteed to stay appear to be safe for at least another year. Logistics: Probably easier to move people around for a short period than to have cars go undelivered in time to meet the Q1 deadline.

BAsed on your questions and comments what are your thoughts on TM's ability to reach it's timing and production goals? BAsed on those thoughts what are your price targets short term (up to and including Q2 ER); medium (through Q4 ER 2015); long term (beyong that)

Mine short: 170-225 (volitile, not sure if we are 170 or 220 at QER2
medium: I think we blow out Q3ER this time; post ER 250-270; Post Jan 2015 Detroit Auto Show/Q4 ER: $300

long term: ?? All depends on execution of Gigafactory/China sales; I have small concerns about US/Europe demand.......We need China

 

[ckessel]

I recall some blurb about Tesla setting a record for deliveries in a month in Norway for any vehicle model. Given the love between Tesla and Norway, they may have seen how much was going to Norway in March anyway and pushed for that record.

 

[Johan]

Evidently the logistics weren't so easy. Otherwise they wouldn't have needed to rush employees from other parts of the world to Norway in last few days of the quarter in a desparate attempt to barely meet projected delivery numbers.

from what I understand Norway's incentives to buy electric vehicles are Not going away this year. Am I wrong?

Lemme take at shot at this question, with some local knowledge. The incentives are not going anywhere. What I believe happened was that in late 2013 they changed pricing and people were invited to finalize their order before a certain date in order to get the old pricing. Many people with pending order did. Their cars were built and there were reports of large amounts of Norway car stock-piling in Fremont. They had some logistic challenges both with getting the cars across the pond and then to Drammen port. Quite a few people had their estimated delivery pushed from February to March. They did make a push to get as many cars as possible delivered in March, cars that were due to be delivered in that month and quarter so yes - they did rush employees etc. and this was to meet delivery numbers but even more to meet their promises to customers. It had nothing to do with production, which has ramped up steadily.

 

[Cwin]

Little bit of a slump despite the expert endorsement.

 

[GravityPull]

apparently the the whole point about their business being production constrained. Despite lack of marketing, despite lack of a dealer network, despite a multi month wait to actually get your car.

Why should tesla only launch a car in the US? Please name another auto company doing something that asinine?

why don't you share your wisdom regarding second, third and fourth quarter sales with us? That way we can check back in during the rest of this year and see if tesla continues to grow per mgmt guidance (my bet) or whatever it is you see?

I am not analytical enough to think my estimates of 2nd, 3rd and 4th Sales are of much value. However as I've said before I am concerned there may not be as many people in the world with the means and desire to buy a $100,000 Tesla as will be needed to keep the stock price up until GenIII is truly ready.

I am well aware that Tesla has not yet "advertised" it's products. However is choosing NOT to advertise the most effective form of Advertising?
Instead do a ton of PR, Social Media, etc., and let all your fans remind everybody that "this company is so hot it Doesn't even need to Advertise!!"

 

[bsd]

Is there absolutely no concern that the "Hail Mary Delivery" of cars to Norway was so last minute?
was this just a one time mistake by management?

Concern? No. I think it was great, actually: free press of workers pulling overtime to make thousands of customers happy? I'll take two, please.

Those cars were put on the boat weeks earlier. Maybe there was some delay in the boat and so the cars arrived days or weeks later than planned.

If they had wanted to juice the numbers for Q1, they would have delayed some percentage of overseas cars and concentrated on building and delivering cars for the US instead. They didn't.

 

[Curt Renz]

Everybody knows Tesla is production constrained.

Is there absolutely no concern that the "Hail Mary Delivery" of cars to Norway was so last minute?
was this just a one time mistake by management?

The TSLA stock price is based on future prospects. Recent production levels and March deliveries to Norway are largely irrelevant. A young growth company with huge potential to disrupt major industries cannot be evaluated in the quarterly manner of a long established manufacturer.

 

[AlMc]

I usually get direct answers to my questions by emailing Investor relations: http://ir.teslamotors.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=846260

 

[The Blue Owl]

My sincerest apologies Familial Rhino!
i was not thinking of you when I Mande that comment. I know that you are NOT the one making the 1200 car claim.

No biggie. The thing is, I sincerely believe we're wasting time on the Norway deliveries and NA demand. There are plenty of things to worry about that could affect the stock both in the short and the long term, just not those.

 

[GravityPull]

There are many here, myself included, who welcome balance and challenges to our thoughts/projections. You have made several statements that you have concerns/questions. Since I am an investor and ultimately would like to see TM thrive to achieve their mission statement AND make me a couple dollars in the process my take is that while we may have some short term volatility, from time to time, that in the long run I will be happy with my support of the company.

You have asked some questions...what are your thoughts on what will happen, in what time frame and how will this affect the success of the company and the price of the stock? Thanks

I'm not good at preparing or expressing forecasts. However this is where my less upbeat point of view comes from. I got my Model S Dec 2012 and quickly became an obsessed Tesla fan. Started buying the stock when it was in the mid 30's, started buying LEAPS around Oct/Nov 2013. While the stock was dropping in Nov I told all my friends and anyone with an ear that TSLA looked like a bargain. I loaded up on more and more LEAPS and in mid January of this year profited tremendously.
I tell people nearly everyday that my Model S IS THE BEST CAR EVER MADE!

Soon after getting the car I became convinced it was just a matter time before orders and reservations in the US would skyrocket. While US sales have increased significantly. However Sales per Tesla Showroom have dropped! (Correct me if I'm wrong).

how could this be?

if the other ~25k Tesla owners are half as vocal about the Model S incredible qualities the Reservations and Orders should be increasing at a much higher pace.

I'm realizing that there was great pent up demand in 2013 and that there probably aren't enough Americans with means and/or desire to buy a $100k car.

my greatest concern is that the same may happen in EU and China. Then what would happen to stock if worldwide demand for $100k cars is not enough to keep sales increasing at rate acceptable to Wall Street until GenIII is ready.

Among other concerns is that people in China live in buildings that make charging of EV's difficult. Isn't NY City an example of few Tesla owners due to same issue? What if GenIII is as delayed as Model X has been.
will list more concerns later....gotta go for a spin in my Model S

 

[AlMc]

I'm not good at preparing or expressing forecasts. However this is where my less upbeat point of view comes from. I got my Model S Dec 2012 and quickly became an obsessed Tesla fan. Started buying the stock when it was in the mid 30's, started buying LEAPS around Oct/Nov 2013. While the stock was dropping in Nov I told all my friends and anyone with an ear that TSLA looked like a bargain. I loaded up on more and more LEAPS and in mid January of this year profited tremendously.
I tell people nearly everyday that my Model S IS THE BEST CAR EVER MADE!

Soon after getting the car I became convinced it was just a matter time before orders and reservations in the US would skyrocket. While US sales have increased significantly. However Sales per Tesla Showroom have dropped! (Correct me if I'm wrong).

how could this be?

if the other ~25k Tesla owners are half as vocal about the Model S incredible qualities the Reservations and Orders should be increasing at a much higher pace.

I'm realizing that there was great pent up demand in 2013 and that there probably aren't enough Americans with means and/or desire to buy a $100k car.

my greatest concern is that the same may happen in EU and China. Then what would happen to stock if worldwide demand for $100k cars is not enough to keep sales increasing at rate acceptable to Wall Street until GenIII is ready.

Among other concerns is that people in China live in buildings that make charging of EV's difficult. Isn't NY City an example of few Tesla owners due to same issue? What if GenIII is as delayed as Model X has been.
will list more concerns later....gotta go for a spin in my Model S

Thanks. Just trying to get a 'handle' on what you believe/project will happen in short, medium and long term. I don't think anyone can answer your question about long term demand for the S and X in any market. My hope is that TM can make enough headway, both money wise and brand recognition wise, to pay for Genn III which is where the stock appreciation will really come from. I 'believe' the demand for the S and X, and the money TM makes will be able to achieve their mission statement but I do not have anything other than the belief and when one invests in a company doesn't that what it comes down to.....You like your S, you believe in the TM mission but you HOPE they can achieve it and in so doing make your investment grow.

 

[The Blue Owl]

my greatest concern is that the same may happen in EU and China. Then what would happen to stock if worldwide demand for $100k cars is not enough to keep sales increasing at rate acceptable to Wall Street until GenIII is ready.

Among other concerns is that people in China live in buildings that make charging of EV's difficult. Isn't NY City an example of few Tesla owners due to same issue? What if GenIII is as delayed as Model X has been.
will list more concerns later....gotta go for a spin in my Model S

Feel free to disregard this unsolicited suggestion, but maybe avoiding options would help you sleep better at night. One should always tune their portfolio to reflect one's actual beliefs about what is most likely to happen. If you cannot allay your concerns with evidence that is convincing to you (regardless of what others think), it may be a signal to adjust your investments to the point where you feel the risk is acceptable.

There's no need to invest with fear. I think most people here (not pretending to speak for them, just a guess) are comfortable enough with the long term future of Tesla that the size of their investments still lets them sleep at night. That's the case for me, anyway.