Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[sleepyhead]

I agree with not recommending that, but for education sake, what are your thoughts? Is this move pattern based, thinking Elon's tweet is buy the rumor, sell the news, or perhaps today's move is only related to rising oil prices and will reduce tomorrow? (something else or some combination of course)

I think that TSLA's move has everything to do with rising oil prices and absolutely nothing to do with Elon's tweet. There is no way that a simple tweet like that is going to add close to $1b in market value.

I think that once Elon releases information at 10am then the stock might move a little based on the substance of that information; if material.

 

[twinklejet]

Anyone else believe that we're seeing BUY ON RUMORS and SELL on news? Would make moere sense to buy PUTS in that case, no?

He has 711,000 followers, plus multiple news sources covering this single tweet, so I'm with you - I think it's people buying on the rumor. Now just hope that the news that comes out in one hour better be freaking awesome (to the investors) if not maybe it'll drop like crazy?

The worst thing that can happen is big investors pulling out and selling everything minutes before 10am PDT (or anytime from now till then), and then the retail investors are left to catch the falling knives..

 

[uselesslogin]

I was wondering if this little rally today was helping my LEAPs. Well, yes it is of course, but man is IV way down.

 

[sleepyhead]

He has 711,000 followers, plus multiple news sources covering this single tweet, so I'm with you - I think it's people buying on the rumor. Now just hope that the news that comes out in one hour better be freaking awesome (to the investors) if not maybe it'll drop like crazy?

The worst thing that can happen is big investors pulling out and selling everything minutes before 10am PDT (or anytime from now till then), and then the retail investors are left to catch the falling knives..

The fact is that the stock went down and saw weakness over the past week because Elon mentioned he might do something radical with Tesla's patents. So, I highly doubt that an announcing a firm date/time to discuss this situation is actually going to make Wall St. all of a sudden reverse course and now buy shares. Sell the rumor, buy the rumor... doesn't make much sense.

IMO it is pretty clear that alternative energy stocks are going up today due to turmoil in Iraq and rising oil prices. This is also the reason why the rest of the market may be down...

 

[twinklejet]

The fact is that the stock went down and saw weakness over the past week because Elon mentioned he might do something radical with Tesla's patents. So, I highly doubt that an announcing a firm date/time to discuss this situation is actually going to make Wall St. all of a sudden reverse course and now buy shares. Sell the rumor, buy the rumor... doesn't make much sense.

IMO it is pretty clear that alternative energy stocks are going up today due to turmoil in Iraq and rising oil prices. This is also the reason why the rest of the market may be down...

The weakness was very low volume no? We have already exceeded the volume of each of those days today. Also, I'm thinking maybe the weakness was because he wasn't specific so it was deemed "risky" to hold shares with no information. Now we are going to get specifics so they are pushing the price up... for now.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I think that TSLA's move has everything to do with rising oil prices and absolutely nothing to do with Elon's tweet. There is no way that a simple tweet like that is going to add close to $1b in market value.

I think that once Elon releases information at 10am then the stock might move a little based on the substance of that information; if material.

Thanks. I had sold some $220s last week that expire tomorrow that are effectively worthless that I was wanting to buy back and resell at a lower strike. $210 is skin of the teeth close for me but $212.50s look like good risk/reward for me.

 

[sleepyhead]

The weakness was very low volume no? We have already exceeded the volume of each of those days today. Also, I'm thinking maybe the weakness was because he wasn't specific so it was deemed "risky" to hold shares with no information. Now we are going to get specifics so they are pushing the price up... for now.

Exact same story with solar stocks. Weak/flat over the past week on extremely low volume. Solar up big today on larger volume (but still somewhat below average).

Take a look at the daily chart of TSLA and TAN. You will see that they moved pretty much in unison today.

For these reasons I believe that the market is simply giving TSLA the exact same treatment as other alternative energy stocks. The tweet is immaterial and IMO nobody is going to buy based on this tweet, especially since the overwhelming consensus is that sharing IP is a negative for a stock. I suspect that the market will start pricing in this information once it is released by Elon, because at this point it is very hard to imagine a scenario where this release will have a significant positive impact on TSLA; in which case it would not make sense to buy the rumor.

 

[FluxCap]

Superchargers for everyone would be fantastic for Tesla shareholders, if that is in fact what Elon announces. EV adoption = win.

 

[sleepyhead]

Superchargers for everyone would be fantastic for Tesla shareholders, if that is in fact what Elon announces. EV adoption = win.

I think that he already said that superchargers are available for everyone several times in the past. The only problem is:

1. Other companies will have to share capital costs based on customer usage.
2. Other cars do not have a big enough battery to take advantage of supercharging. With a Tesla Model S you can go from 50 miles of range to 180 miles of range in 20 minutes. With a Nissan Leaf you might go from 20 miles of range to 40 miles in 20 minutes. But in order to get to full 80 or 100 miles, you will probably need to sit there for 2 hours as the batteries can't handle high charge rates, especially near full loads.

There is no way that you can open up superchargers to everyone unless other cars are designed with supercharging capability in mind and have 200+ miles of range; there needs to be heavy wiring in the cars to handle high currents.

Also, this would just clog up superchargers and cause Tesla owners to get very upset very soon.

 

[Matthias Buhl]

I think that he already said that superchargers are available for everyone several times in the past. The only problem is:

1. Other companies will have to share capital costs based on customer usage.
2. Other cars do not have a big enough battery to take advantage of supercharging. With a Tesla Model S you can go from 50 miles of range to 180 miles of range in 20 minutes. With a Nissan Leaf you might go from 20 miles of range to 40 miles in 20 minutes. But in order to get to full 80 or 100 miles, you will probably need to sit there for 2 hours as the batteries can't handle high charge rates, especially near full loads.

There is no way that you can open up superchargers to everyone unless other cars are designed with supercharging capability in mind and have 200+ miles of range; there needs to be heavy wiring in the cars to handle high currents.

Also, this would just clog up superchargers and cause Tesla owners to get very upset very soon.

I think sleepy ist right here. The Problem for the carmakers at this point ist to create the battery-packs that can handle supercharging. Tesla has developed and successfully tested a really sophisticated battery pack management system. My bet is that Elon want's to share this technology, since Tesla has a real advantage here. I have a friend here in Germany who is working on his doctorate in the field of Battery R&D sponsored by BMW, who seemed to be pretty impressed by Teslas battery management system and said: Quote "That's where they really have a huge technological advantage over other manufacturers".

 

[The Blue Owl]

I have a friend here in Germany who is working on his doctorate in the field of Battery R&D sponsored by BMW, who seemed to be pretty impressed by Teslas battery management system and said: Quote "That's where they really have a huge technological advantage over other manufacturers".

What if they share it, in a way that doesn't hurt Tesla? What if this sparks a revolution in car manufacturing, akin to the "PC-compatible" revolution?

Maybe we're 20 minutes away from history in the making.

 

[AlMc]

Thanks. I had sold some $220s last week that expire tomorrow that are effectively worthless that I was wanting to buy back and resell at a lower strike. $210 is skin of the teeth close for me but $212.50s look like good risk/reward for me.

I have not joined you all in selling covered calls...probably should. I bought weekly 205s Monday. Sold them today on the first spike only to see a better second spike. Well, at least that option trade was 'green' but could have been 'greener'!

 

[c041v]

There has to be more to it than this simple statement. I'm trying to think hard about Tesla's underlying fundamentals and how other manufacturer's having this information would hurt Tesla. It's not like any of them can scale up that quickly without the much discussed cannibalization of their existing lineups. They also can't produce batteries fast enough for any kind of meaningful numbers.

I don't know what it is that I'm missing, but I do believe there is more than meets the eye here. I mean, SpaceX doesn't patent anything, and yet nobody has followed their footsteps...

 

[brysondad]

There has to be more to it than this simple statement. I'm trying to think hard about Tesla's underlying fundamentals and how other manufacturer's having this information would hurt Tesla. It's not like any of them can scale up that quickly without the much discussed cannibalization of their existing lineups. They also can't produce batteries fast enough for any kind of meaningful numbers.

I don't know what it is that I'm missing, but I do believe there is more than meets the eye here. I mean, SpaceX doesn't patent anything, and yet nobody has followed their footsteps...

I think the question now is valuation. If TSLA is a technology company then it must be valued based on its IP, which now is free. If TSLA is a manufacturing company, then it must be valued on its output, which now is minimal. Again, TSLA's stock price premium is put squarely back to its "promise" of geniii and gigafactory. It's increasingly looking like a show-me stock.

 

[brysondad]

There's nothing more to it than that because $ZERO means $ZERO. What else do you want him to say?

he's effectively "marking to market" TSLA's patent portfolio... that messes with TSLA's valuation.

 

[ggr]

I think the question now is valuation. If TSLA is a technology company then it must be valued based on its IP, which now is free. If TSLA is a manufacturing company, then it must be valued on its output, which now is minimal. Again, TSLA's stock price premium is put squarely back to its "promise" of geniii and gigafactory. It's increasingly looking like a show-me stock.

It's always been a "show me" stock, which is why it has done so well... they keep showing us!

 

[callmesam]

he's effectively "marking to market" TSLA's patent portfolio... that messes with TSLA's valuation.

Practicing IP attorneys know that, in general, patents are a zero sum game. Makework and full employment programs. This is the smartest thing Tesla has done so far. They are production constrained in perpetuity.

 

[twinklejet]

Well it sucks to be right, we are officially back in the red..

 

[brysondad]

Well it sucks to be right, we are officially back in the red..

... And this is how $200 will not hold.

 

[uselesslogin]

Doesn't look like much volume on the patent news and while things are going down it looks to be market related. I would say the market, in fact, does not think it is important. Although there is some digestion time here so we'll see. I personally think it affects nothing and I would be surprised to see another automaker copy Tesla's design anytime soon. The truth is there is a lot of software behind it and it isn't easy to get that software working. That is why all the other automakers have taken the easy route with prismatic cells.

Would've been nice if I bought puts this morning though.