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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements
- Thread starter Jonathan Hewitt
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well.. in real life, people tend to sell stocks while exercise company stock options.
I'm not in his head, but I would suspect that's exactly why he's doing it. I think he's essentially trying to manage the human psychology of the market. By semi-occasionally stating that the stock is "overpriced," Elon essentially mitigates some of the latent fear and anxiety in the market. He's telling you right now: it's overpriced. Those comments help spread the latent fear over a longer period of time instead of allowing it to concentrate into a single (as of yet unknown) event in the future.
If that causes a temporary sell off, that's fine, because it's also probably diffusing what would have been a much bigger, panic-induced sell-off sometime down the road.
Muskol
Member
I'm talking about the front line employees on the floor etc, not senior leadership. I don't think the common ranked employee gets options, just a share purchase plan. At least that's how it works in the larger corporation I've been in.
all the silicon valley companies give stock options, a method to attract the brightest.
From my experience in the dot com era with stock options, this is a bad idea. Either cash our and diversify or hold and wait it out. Never put your own money in when your total net worth is so heavily tied to one company's performance.
True, but there has been a shift to using RSUs instead of options to minimize dilution.
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
So I'm thinking we remain range bound now for the next month. I think tesla is about to lose a significant amount of volatility into the month before the model x release, and that will springboard us up to the 290-310 range going into the end of the year.
Edit: the magnitude of the tax breaks from nevada was greater than i expected, in fact significantly more so. However, i don't think it will be recognized by the market. It will be recognized by larger institutions and they will keep the price stable as they accumulate at the 275 range looking into next year.
Edit: the magnitude of the tax breaks from nevada was greater than i expected, in fact significantly more so. However, i don't think it will be recognized by the market. It will be recognized by larger institutions and they will keep the price stable as they accumulate at the 275 range looking into next year.
Always possible, but TSLA is already at the very low end of its IV and HV range. In fact, it hasn't been this low in more than a year. Given the mean-reverting nature of volatility, I kind of doubt it goes much lower (though that doesn't mean the stock can't stay rangebound).
InTheShadows
Active Member
My guess too, however I thought that about this years Detroit auto show.
Since we often share our wins, it's good to share our losses too. So I'm offering some 300's and some 310's to anyone that would like to share them with me today.
. I'm still pleased with this week though.
Muskol
Member
I'm slightly unclear on the timing of the Model X release (alpha/beta/production rel).
Is the expectation that when we see it, it'll be the production ready car, or is there a chance there'll be a reveal at the beta level.
On the Q2 call, Elon said Alphas were being built the following week (first week of August) and Betas would be 3 months from then, which puts us into beginning of November. Production release articles would be doing final validation Q1 2015.
So Detroit aligns well to reveal the production release, but is there a chance we see a reveal at the Beta level?
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
I totally agree that tesla is at the lower end of the volatility spectrum- but i've been tossing this over a lot in my head and I think we will see volatility trend down to all time lows over the next year for tesla. I think it has to do with the new low short interest. I think we'll see some re-entry of shorts at the 290 point, but I think we will see the short interest move down to just below 20 million and we see volatility come down. I think that besides the reveal of the X, this next year is going be a "sell covered calls" year, where overselling calls dominates as an investment strategy. Obviously a personal opinion, just thought I would share it for anyone to consider.
chickensevil
Active Member
Yes, the expectation is to have a Beta reveal. Again this coincides with how they did the Roadster and Model S. They even toured the Betas around the country to various locations in order to help get hands on for many customers.
The difference this time is that they do not need (or even want) to drum up more demand for the Model X yet. They will need to send out Model X to stores/galleries in time for reservation holders to see the cars before they finalize their purchases, but otherwise I don't think they need to show off Betas before going into production.
Interesting. That's a really good point about the declining short interest.
Still, I think the broader market is going to make it challenging for TSLA to remain low vol for months and months. The market itself is near the low end of its volatility range, and that's going to move up at some point. When broad market volatility increases (and it will, even if only because people panic during the next 5-10% correction), I think TSLA is going to have a really hard time escaping the volatility increase, especially as a high-growth stock currently trading at a whopping 82 times forward earnings.
Elon Musk has indicated that they do not want to increase demand right now since that would only increase waiting times. Pre-orders of the Model X give Tesla an impressive backlog already - if they start showing off the car that backlog will only get worse. (It's a good problem to have, but Tesla does consider it a problem...)
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
With regards to TSLA losing about 3% today, I think this was to be expected as a "buy on the rumor, sell on the news" event. Although Elon's comment made numerous headlines in my TSLA news feed, this is not the first time he's made this type of statement, so I am therefore somewhat skeptical that it would have as big an effect as his similar statement last year. Perhaps there was some effect, but nobody can really know the full impact.
Also, for some perspective, TLSA closed at $269.70 last Friday, and it closed at $277.39 today. That's a 2.85% gain for the week, so overall I think the stock did pretty well.
This is my expectation as well. People who made down payments on a reservation are going to want a preview of what they are buying. The Alpha is to work out minor issues in the design, while the Beta is to work out issues in the production process. The Beta is essentially almost the production vehicle.
Also, for some perspective, TLSA closed at $269.70 last Friday, and it closed at $277.39 today. That's a 2.85% gain for the week, so overall I think the stock did pretty well.
This is my expectation as well. People who made down payments on a reservation are going to want a preview of what they are buying. The Alpha is to work out minor issues in the design, while the Beta is to work out issues in the production process. The Beta is essentially almost the production vehicle.
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