So I have officially dumped out of my calls I was sitting on today, since it will take some crazy miracle at this point to jump back up to 290+ so I am looking to likely do a simple straddle when the November Options are released (maybe just do the Decemeber ones), and this way I take a more neutral position. I am trying to find a range that would work though that would be the least required stock movement (in either direction) in order to flip to positive.
I am still kicking myself for not selling at 290, but I am not complaining at all because a win is a win and I still pulled out a 50% gain (after commission). For my first serious option play it was better than running in the red.
I really feel like the stock is not likely to trade flat for much longer... last time we had a flag form it caused the previous drop off we saw, so I am inclined to believe that unless there is some crazy announcement next week, the stock it going to finally do its pullback.
Don't get me wrong, we could totally get that announcement next week with a Model X to show for, and the stock will break out again and go on a short run. But with the latest short data being as low as it is, we are more likely to finally drop back down. I remember the discussions back in March where we were all sitting there, seeing the exact same signals, and we all thought we were looking at a bull flag and the stock would keep going up... but we had no news like we were expecting on the factory, and it dropped... I really feel like we are in high risk of hitting another dropping period.
