Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[Citizen-T]

I just replaced the last of my TSLA shares with LEAPs. I'm holding nothing but Jan 2016 $240s now. I'm planning on buying some really short term PUTs as a hedge towards the end of the day. I expect that things are going to go really well tomorrow and if that happens I expect to see the $320 number that everyone seems to like before the run is over.

But, if I'm wrong, then I think that things are going to go very badly. I expect this to be a short-term drop though. Maybe a matter of weeks.

So, the plan is basically to free up my cash (sell common stock, replace with LEAPs) and buy short term protection. If we end up taking a hit over the next few weeks weeks, I'll cash in those PUTs and start buying back my common or add to LEAPs. If we rocket off towards $320 I'll sit back and enjoy the ride.

 

[Johan]

I just replaced the last of my TSLA shares with LEAPs. I'm holding nothing but Jan 2016 $240s now. I'm planning on buying some really short term PUTs as a hedge towards the end of the day. I expect that things are going to go really well tomorrow and if that happens I expect to see the $320 number that everyone seems to like before the run is over.

But, if I'm wrong, then I think that things are going to go very badly. I expect this to be a short-term drop though. Maybe a matter of weeks.

So, the plan is basically to free up my cash (sell common stock, replace with LEAPs) and buy short term protection. If we end up taking a hit over the next few weeks weeks, I'll cash in those PUTs and start buying back my common or add to LEAPs. If we rocket off towards $320 I'll sit back and enjoy the ride.

Easy peasy . Sound like a win-win either way. The key of course is that you've set this up over quite some time. But if one had no position in TSLA but a load of cash your strategy sounds like a good position to take up (long LEAPS + short-term puts).

 

[justdoit]

Easy peasy . Sound like a win-win either way. The key of course is that you've set this up over quite some time. But if one had no position in TSLA but a load of cash your strategy sounds like a good position to take up (long LEAPS + short-term puts).

The hard part is finding the right short term puts. You want to go OTM but how far out is kinda tricky.

 

[Citizen-T]

Easy peasy . Sound like a win-win either way. The key of course is that you've set this up over quite some time. But if one had no position in TSLA but a load of cash your strategy sounds like a good position to take up (long LEAPS + short-term puts).

Yes, was very sad to have to sell my shares that showed a $19 "Price Paid" but this is no time to be emotional about numbers. =)

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The hard part is finding the right short term puts. You want to go OTM but how far out is kinda tricky.

I'm going to go pretty far out. A 10% drop from here breaks the 200-day. I suspect if we do that we are in for a lot more pain before things stabilize. I don't think there is any such thing as a "little drop" scenario here. We either have a good ER or we break the 200-day.

I'm going to go shopping for the PUTs around $220 give or take a few bucks.

 

[chickensevil]

The hard part is finding the right short term puts. You want to go OTM but how far out is kinda tricky.

If you are targeting out "a couple weeks" I would suggest buying strikes at the current 200DMA for maybe a late november early december expiration because if we crash tomorrow, I would expect to see a return to there in no time flat (plus time value and you make out nicely). You could then opt to sell of straight away, or sell partial and hold the rest to see how low it goes. Even on a miss, I wouldn't put a ton of faith in breaking the ~225 200DMA. It would have to be a HARD miss to kill the stock that hard I would think... Like some kind of shakiness about demand peaking or some such combined with another delay in the Model X combined with coming inline with Analyst estimates of -.01 EPS and a "slight miss" on the 35k. Outside of that, and I would speculate would would hold the 200DMA still. So that makes a good target number.

Just my opinion, someone else feel free to shoot holes in it.

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I'm going to go pretty far out. A 10% drop from here breaks the 200-day. I suspect if we do that we are in for a lot more pain before things stabilize. I don't think there is any such thing as a "little drop" scenario here. We either have a good ER or we break the 200-day.

I'm going to go shopping for the PUTs around $220 give or take a few bucks.

Well and as I typed my comments, there you have it! A counterpoint to my comments about resisting the 200DMA.

 

[justdoit]

If you are targeting out "a couple weeks" I would suggest buying strikes at the current 200DMA for maybe a late november early december expiration because if we crash tomorrow, I would expect to see a return to there in no time flat (plus time value and you make out nicely). You could then opt to sell of straight away, or sell partial and hold the rest to see how low it goes. Even on a miss, I wouldn't put a ton of faith in breaking the ~225 200DMA. It would have to be a HARD miss to kill the stock that hard I would think... Like some kind of shakiness about demand peaking or some such combined with another delay in the Model X combined with coming inline with Analyst estimates of -.01 EPS and a "slight miss" on the 35k. Outside of that, and I would speculate would would hold the 200DMA still. So that makes a good target number.

Just my opinion, someone else feel free to shoot holes in it.

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Well and as I typed my comments, there you have it! A counterpoint to my comments about resisting the 200DMA.

We already broke the 200DMA once but Elons tweet saved us. I don't doubt that we can break it again and go much lower in the short term. Long term I think things haven't changed and we should be okay.

 

[chickensevil]

Oh and since it is the social chat, I am quite happy right now that we are starting to see some recovery right now. This has already put my calls in the green and I think gives a more easy chance to shoot up much higher tomorrow on positive news. I think this bump came courtesy of the "whisper numbers" getting published about the .03 EPS. So the stock is pulling back up a bit from being really depressed about a negative earnings tomorrow...

Could be wrong, but the seeking alpha article was published at 12:16 and the sharp rise started happening shortly thereafter. Who knows? This stock is very manic depressive. Maybe we should send TSLA to the psychiatrist?

 

[Citizen-T]

Good points. Nobody here has been a bigger believer in the strength of the 200-day than me, thanks for reminding me just how strong it has been.

I think my LEAPs alone are a play on the 200-day holding. If it holds against a bad ER then nothing in the weeks after that are going to break it either. We should return on the upward trend that points to $320 and the LEAPs will capture that. I'm not trying to maximize gains by capturing a one-day drop in share price that bounces off the 200-day. I'm trying to protect myself against disaster.

 

[pz1975]

I have set up the strangle play I had wanted now. I bought Dec20 puts Monday with strike prices at 200 and 210 and they are nicely green. I just bought an equivalent $ value of Dec20 275 calls. I am not planning to hold either side to expiration but I do expect a big move in either direction (hoping for up of course since all the rest of my TSLA position - mostly LEAPS - is long). The reason I chose Dec20 is that it is 6 weeks out and the IV changes will be minimal between today and tomorrow for them.

All this chatter here about it being potentially a surprise beat because of low expectations is making me twitchy to buy more December/January/March calls though...need to try to resist... What's that gambling help phone number again??

 

[aznt1217]

I'd buy more but the market it is way too volatile even though we have so many catalysts on the horizon. I'm hoping we'll have some mention of Model X and uptake of D. This is going to be good in terms of Gross Margin for the 4Q

 

[Hogfighter]

Can you share more info on the 2000 P85D orders? I havn't seen anything yet.

I was at the service center (again) and although they wouldn't give me an exact figure, I asked if over 2k have been ordered and they said yes. You can also track VINs on this googledoc site:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18My-7iX24TW95khj4z1fNOeaQ5GPXukXTK42p3nXe-U/edit?pli=1#gid=0

 

[pz1975]

Just to show some numbers regarding IV changes around an ER (why my shortest-term calls/puts are Dec20) - current IV values (nasdaq.com) for at-the-money $235 calls:

Nov. 7 - 1.41
Nov. 14 - 0.78
Nov. 22 - 0.62
Dec. 20 - 0.49
Jan 2016 - 0.45

Tomorrow morning, they will all open at or quickly drop to the 0.45-0.50 range so buying anything with expiry dates in November (especially this week or next week) will guarantee a huge drop in overall value outside of the value change dependent on stock price.

 

[jshintak]

Just to show some numbers regarding IV changes around an ER (why my shortest-term calls/puts are Dec20) - current IV values (nasdaq.com) for at-the-money $235 calls:

Nov. 7 - 1.41
Nov. 14 - 0.78
Nov. 22 - 0.62
Dec. 20 - 0.49
Jan 2016 - 0.45

Tomorrow morning, they will all open at or quickly drop to the 0.45-0.50 range so buying anything with expiry dates in November (especially this week or next week) will guarantee a huge drop in overall value outside of the value change dependent on stock price.

Thank you. This is very helpful.

 

[maoing]

It's true the VIN # range is from 62579 to 64713 which is more than 2K. But how do we know all the # in the range is assigned to P85D? It could be some S85/S60/P85 in the between.

I was at the service center (again) and although they wouldn't give me an exact figure, I asked if over 2k have been ordered and they said yes. You can also track VINs on this googledoc site:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18My-7iX24TW95khj4z1fNOeaQ5GPXukXTK42p3nXe-U/edit?pli=1#gid=0

 

[sitter_k]

Awhile back before the D unveiling someone noticed that there was a different vin. And it related specifically to dual motor. I haven't checked the Google doc you just saw yet though.

 

[FreeOfPge]

Hey everyone, I don't post too much in the investor's threads, but I am a long term Tesla bull. With earnings today, I was googling old articles, kinda looking back and came across an old(er) article from June 2012, titled Tesla Delivers First $100,000.00 Cars Amid Uncertain Demand. Interesting quote from Elon "It wants to sell 35,000 total units of the Model S and Model X electric sport-utility vehicle in 2014, Musk said this month".

I realize this is old news and posted elsewhere, but thought a few of you would enjoy reading it again today as well.

Tesla Ships First $100,000 Model S Amid Uncertain Demand - Bloomberg

 

[The Blue Owl]

Hey everyone, I don't post too much in the investor's threads, but I am a long term Tesla bull. With earnings today, I was googling old articles, kinda looking back and came across an old(er) article from June 2012, titled Tesla Delivers First $100,000.00 Cars Amid Uncertain Demand. Interesting quote from Elon "It wants to sell 35,000 total units of the Model S and Model X electric sport-utility vehicle in 2014, Musk said this month".

I realize this is old news and posted elsewhere, but thought a few of you would enjoy reading it again today as well.

Tesla Ships First $100,000 Model S Amid Uncertain Demand - Bloomberg

This is priceless:

The first 10 “Signature” performance versions are to be picked up by their owners at Tesla’s Fremont, California, factory.

[...]


“Then what?” said Dave Sullivan, an analyst for industry researcher AutoPacific Inc. “Now everybody that wanted one has got one, where do they find the next 10,000?”

 

[Causalien]

Yes, was very sad to have to sell my shares that showed a $19 "Price Paid" but this is no time to be emotional about numbers. =)

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I'm going to go pretty far out. A 10% drop from here breaks the 200-day. I suspect if we do that we are in for a lot more pain before things stabilize. I don't think there is any such thing as a "little drop" scenario here. We either have a good ER or we break the 200-day.

I'm going to go shopping for the PUTs around $220 give or take a few bucks.

Why are you doing this? I am cringing for you about the tax consequences? Why not just take a mortgage on your house and invest in options instead?

 

[Citizen-T]

Why are you doing this? I am cringing for you about the tax consequences? Why not just take a mortgage on your house and invest in options instead?

Roth IRA.

 

[AlMc]

Roth IRA.

. I have a similar strategy for this ER. Only difference is holding cash to buy the Leaps after ER. But I do agree that a way to hedge for upside and long term climb is the J16s. Most of my trading is also in IRA. It is nice to defer any tax consequences as it gives one a little more freedom.