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Henry, I'd love to know if SCTY stock price was ever this close to the 200 day moving average when releasing earnings? I have a feeling as long as the price holds above the 200 day MA the shorts will start bailing. They will get bored and the earnings report could easily make them rush for the exits if it's even remotely positive. We're seeing a lot of negative news out on SCTY with lawsuits and value discussion. We're not seeing good news out of the company lately so this quiet time is keeping the stock down. I see a good ER coming and a short covering rally. With 71% of the stock held by insiders and 23% of it sold short, that spells trouble for the shorts in a big way on any strength, whether news related or ER.
6% is a fair discount rate and I have nothing against that number; SUNE also uses 6%. My problem is that 5% or 7% are also fair numbers, and if you change the discount rate by 1% then it will change the retained value by 10% - 20% if I had to guess.
Another problem is that 30% of the retained value comes from the assumption that customers will renew leases after 20 years. We don't know how the solar industry will look like in 20 years, so it is impossible to tell whether people will be renewing leases or not.
I think that retained value is not a good way to calculate the value of a watt installed. It is about as useful as a DCF is in valuing a company, i.e. garbage in, garbage out and extremely sensitive to inputs/assumptions.
If you take away the lease renewal assumption and increase the discount rate to 7% then all of a sudden SCTY's $1.50 retained value per watt will go down in half.
Weak volume for Solarcity compared to many of the main solars...Anyone have any ideas why TAN is getting hit 6% today and 7% for SCTY? Seems to be a washout I'm hoping. Nasdaq is only down 1% but entire solar sector is getting hit hard and I can't seem to find any news why.
Anyone have any ideas why TAN is getting hit 6% today and 7% for SCTY? Seems to be a washout I'm hoping. Nasdaq is only down 1% but entire solar sector is getting hit hard and I can't seem to find any news why.
nope- there's no specific Solar news to drive it. 10% down across the Solar board- good buy-op here. It's basically a risk off- US econ data coming this week and Ukraine. IMO a big market miss as usual. I'm currently adding to position
Q4 13 -> 0.280
Q3 13 -> 0.040
Q2 13 -> -0.310
Q1 13 -> -0.410
Q4 12 -> -1.300
I made a point in one of my posted to state SCTY is recession-proof in my opinion. Everyone needs electricity and needs to save money during a recession. How could a recession possibly hurt this company? During a recession people may not want stocks but they'll buy SCTY ABS at a fixed rate with little risk. The capital should be easy to get in good times and bad. I just don't see how this company can do poorly during a recession.
Personally, I would love to see Elon buy the dips and sell the highs. He would be doing his stockholders a huge favor. He can calm the stock down a lot by announcing his insider trades. He owns so much of the stock he can really help set the price and keep things more stable.
The instability of the stock stops a lot of people from investing in the first place. If it was rising and falling a lot more smoothly then a lot more investors would hold on. People do not like all this crazy volatility. 50% swings is crazy. I can deal with 25% swings easily, as can most "investors". Too many traders in the stock and way too many shorts. He's letting the shorts control the stock more than they ought to.
Also, JB Straubel is the keynote speaker at the 2014 Energy Storage Symposium May 21st...
2014 Silicon Valley Energy Storage Symposium
In addition to Solarcity news coming down the pike before then, should be interesting what he's going to highlight reference PV+ storage and the network effect...