SolarCity (SCTY)

[NigelM]

+1
i wonder how far out they set their trading dates? Does anyone know 105b-1 stipulations?

I think you mean 10b5-1. That 'rule' actually just requires that the trading plan is established when the trader (in this case Rive himself) is not in possession of non-public, material information; the concept being that 10b5-1 plans can be used (they are not mandatory) as an affirmative defense for company officers against accusations of insider trading. Normally the plan is established at least 30 days in advance but may be up to a year or more; there's no set time requirement or even recommendation. Plans simply commit the officer/insider to trades specified in advance for certain days. Typical time frame for such plans is for adoption immediately after an earnings release when officers would hopefully have zero material, non-public, information.

Existence of a 10b5-1 plan for any given company officer does not preclude them from making other trades outside of that plan provided they are not trading based on insider information.

 

[futureproof]

Is an Energy Storage Tsunami About to Hit California? : Greentech Media

More energy storage momentum in California...

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I think you mean 10b5-1. That 'rule' actually just requires that the trading plan is established when the trader (in this case Rive himself) is not in possession of non-public, material information; the concept being that 10b5-1 plans can be used (they are not mandatory) as an affirmative defense for company officers against accusations of insider trading. Normally the plan is established at least 30 days in advance but may be up to a year or more; there's no set time requirement or even recommendation. Plans simply commit the officer/insider to trades specified in advance for certain days. Typical time frame for such plans is for adoption immediately after an earnings release when officers would hopefully have zero material, non-public, information.

Existence of a 10b5-1 plan for any given company officer does not preclude them from making other trades outside of that plan provided they are not trading based on insider information.

Thanks for the info... It seems like in this case, right now is a bottom, flatline moment for the stock. One might think there is nothing to point to insider trading given the high volatility around ER time. There typically is a run up into the ER, then a drop post ER. To sell right after ER doesn't make sense here, so typical time frame as you mention might not apply. Some may even say he did sell post q4 release but that could be a stretch since q1 release is next week.

who knows right? This has nothing to do with the health of the company,IMO. I think they are going to have a good Q1 ER and put out strong Q2 guidance, so no worries.

update: Board member J. Shulkin just acquired 30000 shares today on behalf of Valor Solar, so insider buying going on now too.
SolarCity - Statement of Changes of Beneficial Ownership

 

[HenryF]

@futureproof Do you remember how much of the planned 50GWhs from the giga-factory is sort of allocated for stationary storage?

 

[NigelM]

update: Board member J. Shulkin just acquired 30000 shares today on behalf of Valor Solar, so insider buying going on now too.
SolarCity - Statement of Changes of Beneficial Ownership

Those are options, not common stock acquisition.

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Thanks for the info...

Just FTR: although I summarized 10b5-1 plans in general, there's no indicator I have seen suggesting that Rive's stock sale was part of a 10b5-1 plan or not. I'm guessing it was a predetermined trade though due to the timing (after Q1 but pre-earnings means he must be in possession of insider info right now).

 

[futureproof]

Those are options, not common stock acquisition.

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Just FTR: although I summarized 10b5-1 plans in general, there's no indicator I have seen suggesting that Rive's stock sale was part of a 10b5-1 plan or not. I'm guessing it was a predetermined trade though due to the timing (after Q1 but pre-earnings means he must be in possession of insider info right now).

Rive's sale was in accordance with the 10b5-1 plan. SolarCity - Statement of Changes of Beneficial Ownership

The options exercise price is $52.90, so I think they hope to see the current stock price go a lot higher in the future... I'm sure they're not going into this hoping it goes down... So, I'm going to go out on a limb and say they're pretty optimistic about Solarcity's future with these 30k today...

 

[futureproof]

@futureproof Do you remember how much of the planned 50GWhs from the giga-factory is sort of allocated for stationary storage?

Ha, I wish I knew that. I'm guessing, if all things go well, they will try to have enough to meet Solarcity demand at a minimum. So, if solarcity achieves 1mln customers by mid2018, then they will forecast from that number... My best guesstimation right now...

Update: I've read some residential storage systems are currently about 10-11kwh, so maybe 1/6-1/8 of total battery pack production(based on 60,85kwh auto packs). So, maybe 568k-650k storage units at 10-11kwh each. Again, more guess work.

 

[NigelM]

Rive's sale was in accordance with the 10b5-1 plan. SolarCity - Statement of Changes of Beneficial Ownership.

There you go, in the notes it states his plan was in effect on 8/30/2013. IOW, the sale was fixed 8 months ago.

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The options exercise price is $52.90, so I think they hope to see the current stock price go a lot higher in the future... I'm sure they're not going into this hoping it goes down... So, I'm going to go out on a limb and say they're pretty optimistic about Solarcity's future with these 30k today...

The options are priced at the time of the gift, they were most likely a gift to the director in return for board participation or the result of an earlier agreement. Pricing options below market creates a taxable event for options; those options may go down so it almost never happens that they are priced lower.

 

[futureproof]

There you go, in the notes it states his plan was in effect on 8/30/2013. IOW, the sale was fixed 8 months ago.

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The options are priced at the time of the gift, they were most likely a gift to the director in return for board participation or the result of an earlier agreement. Pricing options below market creates a taxable event for options; those options may go down so it almost never happens that they are priced lower.

That would really suck if that gift turned out to be a turd, right? Gift or not, still think it's a vote of confidence in the company. The way the notes read, it seems more as a retainer or performance bonus as long he sticks to be "issuer's service provider"...1/48th Vest each month after March 2015...

 

[sleepyhead]

That would really suck if that gift turned out to be a turd, right? Gift or not, still think it's a vote of confidence in the company. The way the notes read, it seems more as a retainer or performance bonus as long he sticks to be Valor's service provider...1/48th Vest each month after March 2015...

You are over-analyzing this.

He simply got granted 30,000 stock options with a strike price equal to Monday's closing price. Probably gets these every year.

If some random director gets 30,000 then I would watch out and keep an eye out for dilution when you add up all employee stock and option grants. I have the same concerns with TSLA.

 

[futureproof]

You are over-analyzing this.

He simply got granted 30,000 stock options with a strike price equal to Monday's closing price. Probably gets these every year.

you know what, this is probably it. Simple enough. And I think it's the same for the all the "insider selling." Nothing more then planned events that would've happened regardless of current stock price.

 

[sleepyhead]

you know what, this is probably it. Simple enough. And I think it's the same for the all the "insider selling." Nothing more then planned events that would've happened regardless of current stock price.

Selling happens all the time, so I wouldn't worry about. I was laughing my ass off last year when a SPWR executive sold all of his stock at $10, while I was buying more.

Insider selling doesn't mean that they don't think that the stock will go up. Some people do not like having too much exposure to the company they work for, so they cash out stock any chance they get, since they will get more next year.

 

[kenliles]

you know what, this is probably it. Simple enough. And I think it's the same for the all the "insider selling." Nothing more then planned events that would've happened regardless of current stock price.

in addition to sleepy's comments; Even Execs who do know the stock potential future sell at regular intervals to fund other investments- don't forget what they are also receiving many more future options to replace those for future performance etc. It's a virtual non-issue you guys are discussing.

 

[futureproof]

Solar Energy Takes Over Professional Sports | EnergySage
might we one day see the NFL/MLB/NBA games in Solarcity Stadium, Solarcity Field, or Solarcity Center?

FYI, also read some tweet that Solarcity will make an announcement on knpr tomorrow about "new solar jobs." Not sure if this anything significant, still thought it something to share away...

 

[futureproof]

FYI, also read some tweet that Solarcity will make an announcement on knpr tomorrow about "new solar jobs." Not sure if this anything significant, still thought it something to share away...

SolarCity Launches First-of-its-Kind Solar Service in Nevada

hopefully, this won't tip the hat toward Nevada for the gigafactory too soon... Maybe New Mexico is next for Solarcity to do the same as it just has done in Nevada... Hint to New Mexico and others on energy incentives

Solarcity has now expanded its market to 15 states. It will also add 400 new jobs for a total of 800. Since New York has 180 Solarcity employees for 19.3mln population, curious why Nevada with pop of 2.7mln gets over 4x more work force... Hmmm....

 

[TheBanker]

How big is launching SCTY in NV? Any idea how many homes could potentially have panels installed in NV?

I'm surprised the stock is only up 1.5% today.

I saw something yesterday mentioning 2 possible gigafactories in the future to reduce risk. It was an interview with Elon. News out of SCTY lately has been very thin lately. I wonder if this is a strategy to hold back info until after earnings next week.

 

[futureproof]

How big is launching SCTY in NV? Any idea how many homes could potentially have panels installed in NV?

I'm surprised the stock is only up 1.5% today.

I saw something yesterday mentioning 2 possible gigafactories in the future to reduce risk. It was an interview with Elon. News out of SCTY lately has been very thin lately. I wonder if this is a strategy to hold back info until after earnings next week.

q4 conf call they hinted at reduced commercial projects and it sounded intentional. This could be interpreted as making room for gigafactory capacity building, but could be a stretch. They will now have 800 employees in Nevada, again expanding capacity what seems disproportionate to current population. Nevada is restarting its
SolarGenerations Program in August so this seems curious timing. As far as gigafactory in two places... Pure negotiation tactics to expedite permits as well as to receive other incentives... Make the states commit resources with minimal time delay if competition is set all the way to ground breaking... There will only be one gigafactory at the end of the process. Nevada looking very promising still with this latest development.

 

[TheBanker]

So you think the 800 employees hired over the next year will be doing more than just solar installations on homes?

 

[futureproof]

So you think the 800 employees hired over the next year will be doing more than just solar installations on homes?

Sounds a bit overkill, doesn't it? I could be underestimating the current rooftop market in NV. Maybe you need 400 more employees to cover it. In that case, NV is a good addition to Solarcity and bodes well for accelerating the achievement of 1mln customers by mid 2018...

 

[TheBanker]

15 states still seems pretty low. I'm surprised they haven't tried to break into even more states. Whatever it takes to stay on their path to 1m by 2018 would be nice. SCTY definitely doesn't need to be missing any targets anytime soon.

I see such a huge cycle of growth for them I just can't see them missing their target of 1m by 2018. I'd love to see them add an add-on service to the systems they sell and do not lease. If buying a system becomes more popular it would be nice to see some retained value there from services sold to people who do take the risk and buy the system outright. I know if I bought a system from SCTY in the future, I'd like to buy an insurance policy from them that would repair the system if it broke and the monitoring service that would help me manage my usage.

 

[futureproof]

15 states still seems pretty low. I'm surprised they haven't tried to break into even more states. Whatever it takes to stay on their path to 1m by 2018 would be nice. SCTY definitely doesn't need to be missing any targets anytime soon.

80% of all residential installs in the US are done in 5 states. California accounts for 52% of that... Solarcity appears to be where they need to be in that regard...