-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
RUD means Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly, as in "it blew up" during ascent.
I have not seen that acronym used in the context of a first stage landing attempt ending in failure.
SpaceX has 26 successful F9 launches under their belt with only 1 failure (RUD). They did have one partial failure on CRS-1 that actually proved their engine out capability. Realistically the partial failure was only because NASA didn't allow SpaceX to modify their burn to allow success for the extra satellite. However, the government would still consider that a partial failure in their decision making process.
ULA's Atlas V has had 64 successful launches with only 2 partial failures and in both cases the payloads made it to orbit. A record that is tough to beat. If price is no object and your payload absolutely must get into orbit then ULA and the Atlas V is your best bet.
SpaceX will need two or three years at their expected launch cadence and no failures to take on the Atlas V's track record. Knowing that SpaceX is an innovative company, I expect that there might be another failure within three years. The company will be extra careful with astronauts on board so if there is a failure it would come from one of the other launches. Maybe a re-used booster launch. I can't dismiss the possibility of another failure from SpaceX in the coming years though. I expect them to push the envelope.
You have to remember that the government, or any other entity with a payload, doesn't care at all about re-usability. They only want their payload to get to the designated orbit as expected. A lower price is nice for them but getting the payload into space is their prime consideration. A booster splashing into the ocean is perfectly fine as far as they are concerned. We, SpaceX, and Elon care about re-usability, they do not.
Sorry for the speech.
Good info.
It appears that a RUD can happen at any point during the mission, but clearly only the ones interfering with the launch/delivery are those that matter from a payload delivery reliability standpoint.
Still, SpaceX appears to be on a good reliability trajectory (pun intended).
ULA gets two more Delta IV launches from the NRO:
No complaint from SpaceX as Air Force skips competition for pair of NRO missions - SpaceNews.com
Keep in mind, these would need to be FH launches and that rocket has not been certified yet. Or even flown yet....
No complaint from SpaceX as Air Force skips competition for pair of NRO missions - SpaceNews.com
Keep in mind, these would need to be FH launches and that rocket has not been certified yet. Or even flown yet....
hockeythug
Active Member
http://www.floridatoday.com/story/t...ing-shows-off-starliner-factory-ksc/87531694/
Interesting talk at the end of this article about a US flag that was left on the ISS by the last space shuttle. The first US crew vehicle that delivers astronauts to the ISS will bring the flag home. Boeing says they are "very confident" they will get the flag, even though SpaceX is scheduled to arrive six months sooner. What a super motivation for SpaceX employees. My money is on them.
GSP
Interesting talk at the end of this article about a US flag that was left on the ISS by the last space shuttle. The first US crew vehicle that delivers astronauts to the ISS will bring the flag home. Boeing says they are "very confident" they will get the flag, even though SpaceX is scheduled to arrive six months sooner. What a super motivation for SpaceX employees. My money is on them.
GSP
Article about how ULA is planning on creating an orbiting second stage (conveyer system):
SpaceX's biggest rival is developing "space trucks" to ferry cargo in an orbital economy
SpaceX's biggest rival is developing "space trucks" to ferry cargo in an orbital economy
Nikxice
Active Member
Good luck to ULA and their second stage 'space truck' concept that may pan out in 30 to 50 years. It doesn't appear to be a near term solution to reducing orbital launch costs. SpaceX's reusable first stage booster program is already in high gear and isn't dependent on creating multiple new technologies, such as making fuel out of space rocks. Elon has probably already spoken his thoughts on this issue, would be an interesting read if someone knows of a link.
I took note that the author of the article used the term "game changer" while describing ULA's plan. How ironic. I immediately thought of Tesla vs. Toyota. That battle, along with SpaceX vs. ULA, finds hydrogen to be a key player. The most abundant element in the universe, yet difficult to manage on earth. In space, difficult to reach, then productively extract for a fuel component.
Funny thing is when I read this article that was the first thing I remembered. Elon had mentioned something about how it would be nice to make the second stage reusable as well. Just can't remember when and where...
Yes, Elon did talk about making the second stage reusable, but he said that was at the limit of practicality, if I remember right.
The space truck is an interesting idea, but how do you refuel it? The article mentions getting water from the moon and asteroids, but geez, that's not going to happen in our lifetimes, not to mention building a processing plant to get liquid oxygen, etc. from water. So for the foreseeable future, it would be refueled from non reusable rockets sent from earth? Oookay...
The space truck is an interesting idea, but how do you refuel it? The article mentions getting water from the moon and asteroids, but geez, that's not going to happen in our lifetimes, not to mention building a processing plant to get liquid oxygen, etc. from water. So for the foreseeable future, it would be refueled from non reusable rockets sent from earth? Oookay...
SpaceX can make lots of orbital runs on their reusable rockets to ferry fuel to ULA's space trucks. Personally, I kind of like that ULA is trying to come up with something other than going head to head with SpaceX and losing on orbital launches. SpaceX is focused on Mars so ULA can focus on orbital way stations and depots for industrial purposes. As far as I am concerned the more industry in space the better.
What I liked about the whole point of the article is how ULA is thinking outside of its traditional thinking, as we all know, inspired and propelled by SpaceX.
Just like how Tesla is "inspiring" other automakers to transition away from unsustainable transit. I agree wholeheartedly with @Grendal that the more players there are in space, the better off we (humanity) all are.
Just like how Tesla is "inspiring" other automakers to transition away from unsustainable transit. I agree wholeheartedly with @Grendal that the more players there are in space, the better off we (humanity) all are.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Similar to the previous two posts, I liked how whether ULA's idea of a space truck pans out into something practical or not, just reading the article and reading about the idea got me thinking in a new way. It's been awhile since I encountered an idea in a field I cared about that did that, that didn't come from an Elon Musk company.
It could be a good idea.. after you fix the first stage. maybe they want to partnership with blue ocean for the first stage and they could work only on the second stage.. but for me they will be out of business well before they even make it half possible.
Who is going to pay them for this? they are used for ultra-pumped govern subsidies, but i don't think nasa is going to put up with them for long if space x continue to do succesfull luch one after another with less the cost.
So the question is: where are you going to make the money? maybe nasa is going to approve this plan and pay for it? but then, if nasa is going to pay for this plan and it's considered a 'good thing' probably elon is going to play in the game, and they will be in a very bad position..
Who is going to pay them for this? they are used for ultra-pumped govern subsidies, but i don't think nasa is going to put up with them for long if space x continue to do succesfull luch one after another with less the cost.
So the question is: where are you going to make the money? maybe nasa is going to approve this plan and pay for it? but then, if nasa is going to pay for this plan and it's considered a 'good thing' probably elon is going to play in the game, and they will be in a very bad position..
adiggs
Well-Known Member
The idea that ULA will be out of business before they're able to bring their idea for reusable second stages to market seems most likely to me.
I can still appreciate the good idea, or at least the good imagination and expression that got me thinking about reuse in a different way.
Nikxice
Active Member
For both political and competitive reasons I also think ULA will be around for quite some time. Second stage reusability does make economic sense and seems likely to be developed, whether by ULA or another company. Playing the devils advocate, the thought occurred to me that ULA could be floating their 'space truck' concept to get the attention of Congress and grease the wheels for future funding. Assuming their stated fuel source will be coming from our moon or asteroids, cronosx point is well taken. Great idea, but fraught with technological and financial uncertainty. A private commercial venture seems more appropriate. There's also the argument that N D Tyson espouses, without the government leading the way, large scale ventures in space aren't likely to move forward. I think everyone here would like to see him proved wrong, especially with SpaceX's push towards Mars.
15 years ago reusable stages were only an idea. Spaecex is about to change that. Today, space tugs/ferries are only an idea, and ULA seems willing to put money into the concept (they're not the only ones, BTW). Who knows if they will succeed, but ULA finally starting to think beyond cost plus is all good for the industry.
Similar to how spacex did not set out making reusable rockets, mining fuels is not step 1 of the space tug concept. For instance, you can huck up fuel on low cost (and low[er] reliability) rockets, like spacex stages that are nearing thier EOL. Or you could rideshare fuel on missions that have mass to spare. EP development is ongoing; higher power is always on the horizon--that could be part of the solution too.
Similar threads
- Article
