Starlink IPO

[Matias]

Well since the ground equipment will likely be made in China the easiest way to do it would be for them to install something while they are making it. Could be a lockout based on GPS or just a setup that will forward the traffic to China servers so they can monitor it. It wouldn't be the first time a government had things added to equipment.

I’m not trying to defend china, but I just want to point out, that to my understanding, U.S. has the same kind of practice. Government can order that companies must create back doors in their software and at the same time order, that it is forbidden to tell anyone about those back doors.

I’m pretty sure, NSA can access all the information, which goes trough U.S. companies.

 

[willow_hiller]

I’m not trying to defend china, but I just want to point out, that to my understanding, U.S. has the same kind of practice. Government can order that companies must create back doors in their software and at the same time order, that it is forbidden to tell anyone about those back doors.

I’m pretty sure, NSA can access all the information, which goes trough U.S. companies.

The difference between the US and China in this regard is the government asks, and the private sector as thus far said "No" and taken it to court. I believe a case is still working it's way up through the court system between the FBI and Apple because they refused to crack the encryption on the San Bernardino shooters iPhone.

In China, the companies are either state-run, or engage in "self-censorship" where they act in the interest of the state without needing to be explicitly asked.

 

[bkp_duke]

I’m not trying to defend china, but I just want to point out, that to my understanding, U.S. has the same kind of practice. Government can order that companies must create back doors in their software and at the same time order, that it is forbidden to tell anyone about those back doors.

I’m pretty sure, NSA can access all the information, which goes trough U.S. companies.

I'm in the software design and datacenter industries, and I've never had the US Gov come and make any such request from us. Do you have some evidence to back this up?

I have had the FBI and a few other organizations come and serve us with a warrant for access to customer data, but that was always when there was evidence that something shady was going on (client found to be hosting kiddy porn, or a bot control server, etc.). That, however, is very different than them asking us to install a backdoor in our routers and control software.

 

[xhawk101]

If there is going to be an IPO - please sign me up!

Up until a couple of weeks ago I had believed that Elon Musk was only working his ass off at the Tesla factory because he wanted to electrify the world transportation network. He would later make his big money off of the global internet subscriptions - big enough to fund his Mars settlement. But now it seems he is going to make big money off of Tesla before that. Big as in, Bezos big.

Maybe I am influenced by living away from cell signals. My only connection to the world (phone, internet, and cable TV) is through the ever-escalating price from the monopoly (Public?) cable pirates. 5G is not going to help me. To add a global competitor to the private-monopoly cable pirates will cause a revolution. Maybe not the size of the EV diminution of much of the Petroleum Exploration, Refining, and gasoline distribution industries, but almost as big.

Oh, there will be competitors? I heard the same thing before I test drove my Tesla. But since I test drove the Chevy Bolt, I have ignored them.

Agree, any info about request for waiting list for the ipo? Maybe they should sell "reservations " lol

Prior rumor of TSLA investor early access is notable.

Maybe SpaceX investor relations?

 

[Matias]

I'm in the software design and datacenter industries, and I've never had the US Gov come and make any such request from us. Do you have some evidence to back this up?

I have had the FBI and a few other organizations come and serve us with a warrant for access to customer data, but that was always when there was evidence that something shady was going on (client found to be hosting kiddy porn, or a bot control server, etc.). That, however, is very different than them asking us to install a backdoor in our routers and control software.

Ok. Maybe i’ve been influenced by some conspiracy theory

 

[ckessel]

How does a single retail investor like me actually get in on one of these IPOs? I thought, generally, IPO shares were basically all snarfed up by major investors before anyone else had a shot.

 

[NakedLong]

I'm in the software design and datacenter industries, and I've never had the US Gov come and make any such request from us. Do you have some evidence to back this up?

I have had the FBI and a few other organizations come and serve us with a warrant for access to customer data, but that was always when there was evidence that something shady was going on (client found to be hosting kiddy porn, or a bot control server, etc.). That, however, is very different than them asking us to install a backdoor in our routers and control software.

I guess you did not read anything about Snowden's leaks and PRISM:
Secret program gives NSA, FBI backdoor access to Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft data

 

[SageBrush]

it is a very risky endeavor even with the head start

I think this is the key point -- how big a head start ?
My follow-up questions would be what part of the SpaceX brain-trust and Elon come along ?

 

[bkp_duke]

I guess you did not read anything about Snowden's leaks and PRISM:
Secret program gives NSA, FBI backdoor access to Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft data

Guess my operation is not big enough for them to come and ask me for access. I'll work harder.

 

[NakedLong]

Starlink satellites last for about 5 years, so replacement rate is 8000/year. Starship can launch about 300 at a time for about $2M so launch costs are about $60M. The satellites are going to cost much more than that, maybe $2-5 B/year but it is hard to tell this far out as the next few generations of satellite will be more capable and therefore cost more (or perhaps less due to better technology). Costs also include ground terminals, both customer (maybe $500) and gateways. Customer acquisition and retention costs could be high.

Revenue and earnings are hard to guess, maybe $300/customer/year and 20 million customers (but it might be 200 million customers). But it seems to me that the majority of the revenue is likely to come from commercial customers. There is also the question of whether Starlink can sell added services on top of basic data connectivity.

One interesting possibility is combining 5G base station functionality with a Starlink terminal for backhaul.

Taking all these factors into account it is impossible to give a valuation at present, it could be anywhere from zero to several trillion.

Once Starship comes online in a few years, the cost of launch will come down dramatically, and there will be no-one that can compete with that rocket. Starlink will be relatively cheap to maintain, depending on how much SpaceX chooses to charge Starlink.

 

[NakedLong]

Guess my operation is not big enough for them to come and ask me for access. I'll work harder.

They don't come and ask a random engineer to install a backdoor. They go in at the top level, with complete secrecy and with the threat of jail time for disclosure, and get their own NSA engineers to install the backdoor. Almost everyone at the companies targeted by PRISM were totally unaware until Snowden leaked it.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Given the high interest for this IPO the shares will probably not be cheap. And if you don't get any shares assigned, you will have to pay a hefty premium to get some on the open market. Will there be much upside left after that? It doesn't sound like a guaranteed 10-bagger. Hopefully TSLA shareholders can get some shares assigned.

 

[Remus]

Successful Soyuz launch deploys 34 satellites for OneWeb network – Spaceflight Now

Some interesting quotes in the latter half of this article from the CEO of OneWeb about Starlink:

As far as I know there's some people in China showing interest in starlink to get around the great firewall. Of course you have to somehow smuggle a land station in.

 

[Remus]

Considering that these countries have satellite killer technology, that would not be wise.

That means war. A real one.

 

[Remus]

I wonder if Starlink can offer a "stealth mode" pizza box.

Maybe just publish the ground station attenna design and only sell the chip and subscription key.

Or heck open source that whole ground station design and only sell subscription key.

 

[Remus]

I’m not trying to defend china, but I just want to point out, that to my understanding, U.S. has the same kind of practice. Government can order that companies must create back doors in their software and at the same time order, that it is forbidden to tell anyone about those back doors.

I’m pretty sure, NSA can access all the information, which goes trough U.S. companies.

You're wrong. They can't

 

[traxila]

Don’t even know why this would be discussed or why SpaceX would even mention it if the IPO were several years away. That means nothing.

Shotwell brought this up to get a feel for reaction and if good to IPO within two years max. They need the cash to build out the network. If response is good I would not be surprised to see an IPO by the end of the year.

 

[bkp_duke]

They don't come and ask a random engineer to install a backdoor. They go in at the top level, with complete secrecy and with the threat of jail time for disclosure, and get their own NSA engineers to install the backdoor. Almost everyone at the companies targeted by PRISM were totally unaware until Snowden leaked it.

Great, then being the C-level exec in charge of all operations, I expect I would be in the know if they asked MY company to install a backdoor on our operations. But my operation is probably too small to fall onto their radar.

 

[Cosmacelf]

With regard to people trying to use Starlink in China, either through SpaceX's help or via open source or whatever, you do realize that Tesla has a giant factory in China, right?

It'll be the other way 'round. If China realizes that their citizens are using Starlink to evade the great firewall of China, China will ask (demand) that Starlink stop it. And Elon will comply. The "or else" will never have to be uttered.

 

[Cosmacelf]

How does a single retail investor like me actually get in on one of these IPOs? I thought, generally, IPO shares were basically all snarfed up by major investors before anyone else had a shot.

For big IPOs like this, you would have to be a good customer of one of the underwriters. Basically, 3-4 investment banks will underwrite the IPO, meaning they will find investors who will buy the IPO at the offering price. While everyone here would buy Starlink shares, the reality is that it will have to be sold to investors. The upshot of which, on a popular offering like this, is that only the best customers of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley or whoever the underwriters are will get shares at the IPO price.

Everyone here likely uses some discount broker, right? Well, that's one of the differences between a discount broker and one of the big brokerage houses, access to goodies like IPOs (and of course, their research).

For the rest of us, we would be able to buy when the shares trade on the open market. For a popular IPO, that usually means a 10-30% premium to the offering price. Some IPOs which aren't particularly popular, or are smaller, you can buy at offering and/or at pretty much the same price (or even lower) on the open market.