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Super Bull Future TSLA Valuations
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
Krugerrand
Meow
No idea if that’s even a thing, but SpaceX did send up Starlinks yesterday (4/6/24). Six of the 21 were the new Sat to Cell ones.
While I do think RT's will become a very profitable business for Tesla, my opinion is Ark (and many other bulls) assume revenues & profits which are unreasonably too high. We've seen how Tesla is willing to cut margins on auto sales to very low levels while only a year or two ago practically no one was forecasting this. My hunch is Tesla will keep margins on RT rides very low as well as a means to push RT rides into the mainstream as an incredible value proposition.
Tesla's mission is NOT to make huge profits, it's to improve the world via green energy and robotics. I believe they'll cut margins to levels most bulls today aren't expecting.
Elon has stated 30% margin target. He is only going lower because he can produce more vehicles than there is demand at 30% margins. That won't be the case for many decades with robotaxis.
We don't know that for a fact. RT's will be something most people have never seen before, and most won't trust it initially. Most people who own cars will keep driving their cars, most people who use trains and buses will keep doing so, most people who like using Uber will stay with what they know.
Tesla will need to break into all of those sectors with this new tech, they will have to convince people to make the switch and try it out. The fastest way to persuade them is to make RT's incredibly affordable, and that might mean dropping RT margins to thin levels, not the large margins many bulls are forecasting today.
I'm just saying we can't assume 30% profit margins on RT's. Tesla has shown us they are willing to lower margins to razor thin levels purposefully to increase adoption rates, so IMHO there is a decent chance RT margins go the same route.
7 billion people in the world. If 1% will try it, that is 70 million customers that could potentially use it on day one. Demand just won't be an issue.
And if pigs can fly.... I get the excitement of FSD, that will eventually lead to RT. And, now we know that Elon will have an unveiling of RT on August 8th...forced on him due to the Reuter’s Misinformed story. I do not think it was a coincidence that both happened on the same day. Also, I have the trial, finally, of FSD on my Model S, and it worked just fine the few times we used it over this weekend With only a couple of interventions. However, we are a long way off on RT. Too many edge cases that will take 2-5 years, even with the exponential learning of the system, to get to 99.999%. And, as @Mengy mentioned above, few people outside our circle are not familiar with Tesla let alone RT, and if they will even use it? Let’s not worry about profit margins (which will be substantial) till we even have the opportunity to have actual RT available...and I think it will still be at least a few years away.
Let’s see if we can get the next gen Tesla out in the next couple of years (now having my doubts) to help with Tesla’s margins and next growth phase.
Education is even more necessary now, with most legacy going to hybrids and delaying EV’s. Tesla will have to do this alone and price cuts is not the answer to help with demand if people don’t know the benefits of EV’s and that range anxiety is not real, if you drive a tesla.
The results are in:
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
You know what demographic has low car ownership rate, high tolerance for risk and novelty, is more urbanized, uses ridesharing the most, and tends to get intoxicated frequently? Young adults. I think that's the clear first target market if adoption is an issue.
Elon just advised that Tesla will own a portion of the fleet outright!
Y'all are looking at this the wrong way. You are looking at what the usage and impact of robotaxis will be without actually looking at the bare reality. Robotaxi (full level 5 autonomy) will *never* be a reality with Teslas tech stack. Elon is just selling hope at this point without any basis in reality.
Up to 4 Quadrillion industry valuation based on low revenue input.
jeewee3000
Active Member
The industry value Optimus can disrupt is huge indeed...
but not the entire value will flow to $TSLA. This all depends on the price point/margins they sell them at.
So I hope Tesla provides the bot to customers at an OK price (say $25k to $50k) and then offers SaaS subscription plans to use your bot.
If Tesla doesn't work with the SaaS model, the actual profits Tesla will make from selling Optimi is miniscule compared to the value received by the users (companies and private individuals). It would be a financially insane move.
But I'm quite sure Tesla will handle this properly since they're already charging $99/month for non-working FSD, let alone a bot with some proper functions and ability to update capabilites OTA.
The inputs on my $375T 2030 valuation continue to look pessimistic. I have 200m Optimus total in fleet by 2030, this is a billion per annum!
Already done it for you although might be a bit sporty for 2030:
Later in the thread I updated to add Optimus.