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#362
https://twitter.com/x/status/1613717069446643713
Tesla working on these:
RT will disrupt Doordash & Uber.
People will work in their Tesla AV Van rather than WeWork.
People will live in their Tesla Vans whilst at home or vacation thus disrupting AirBnB.

You only need to get 20% of each of these markets to significantly pull down the price of the other 80%.
 
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#363
MikeC said:
Pretty quiet around here these days. Here’s my super bull thesis for 2023:

Q4 deliveries 430k+ and macro recovery sets off rally to 150 for the ER. Margins on the ER are still high and guidance of 50% is reaffirmed. Inflation recedes and feds don’t hike in Feb and TSLA runs to 300 by March. No recession and cybertruck debuts to massive success and we get back to 400 by end of year.
Click to expand...

Deliveries were not 430k+ but share price is at 150 after the ER today. Onward to 300?
 
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#364
Artful Dodger said:
Projections for TSLA future growth from conventional Wall St. analysts like Gary Blank are useless; they are trying to estimate* Elon based on Wall St. history. Elon does not fit inside their little boxes.

The simplest estimate is to listen to what Elon says: 50% annual growth for the foreseeable future. Now, can Elon forsee Tesla in 2030? Oh yeah, clearly:
  • Tesla Megapacks on the Grid,
  • Tesla Semis on the Road,
  • Tesla Autos in every Segment,
  • Tesla Insurance, Autonomy, and Ride Hailing,
  • Tesla Robotics in the Factory,
  • Tesla Robotics and the Home, and
  • Tesla Robotics in Space.
Believe it. Elon will make it happen. That's what he does. The peanut gallery is not a factor.

#Predict 1,970,777 Tesla cars *delivered in 2023.
Click to expand...
 
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#365
Papafox said:
Both 2023 and 2024 are looking positive for TSLA. Here's a brief rundown.
2023 catalysts:
* IRA $7500 incentives now apply to all Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, subject to minerals component that could affect half the incentive but which Tesla is in better position to achieve than other manufacturers. On top of these incentives, Tesla's costs have dropped since the 2022 supply chain issues and Tesla was able to profitably lower prices. Add these two price decreasers together and you have a larger addressable market, particularly in the U.S.
* March 1: Tesla will show off advanced manufacturing processes and perhaps even reveal future vehicles (a commercial van, perhaps?). New vehicles expand Tesla's addressable market and better manufacturing processes improve margins
* Model 3 project Highland is coming and is likely a redesign that will make Model 3 cheaper to manufacture (and capable of higher margins). Lower costs will allow Tesla to keep increasing production and deliveries while waiting for the sub-$30K vehicle to come to the market. Tick, tick, tick.
* Cybertruck production begins
* Likely 4680 breakthroughs announced
* Tesla megapack production will show a 10X increase and profitability
* GigaBerlin and GigaTexas should reach their 5K/wk production rates and perhaps pass beyond, which will increase total deliveries and will nicely improve margins on each of those vehicles sold

2024 catalysts:
* 4680 cell production increases substantially
* Volume production of Cybertruck allows this new vehicle to add to Tesla's bottom line
* Tesla will have sorted out battery materials so that battery production is way up and IRA incentives for battery assembly is maximized by Tesla. Cha-ching!
Click to expand...
 
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#368
Reflecting things which move, the stock, these are things that may happen in the next 2 years, before April 2025.
For each entry I assign a percentage probability.
It is important to reflect on them individually, as well as collectively.

Feel free to add to the list, or post your own percentages:.

  • Giga Monterrey ground breaking - 100%
  • Two Gen3 models revealed - 100%
  • Giga Monterrey production starts - 98%
  • Second Gen3 factory starts construction - 95%
  • Second Gen3 factory starts production - 50%
  • Giga Monterrey production ramps to 1,000 per week - 75%
  • Cybertruck production starts - 100%
  • Cybertruck has awesome specs, well ahead of the competition - 90%
  • Cybertruck wins car of the year - 75%
  • Cybertruck production ramps to 1,000 per week - 75%
  • Semi production ramps to 200 per week - 95%
  • Semi production ramps to 800 per week - 75%
  • Semi production ramps to 1,000 per week - 60%
  • 4680 production (all sites) ramps to 60 GWh per year - 70%
  • All Austin Model Y production 4680 - 75%
  • Berlin starts 4680 production - 55%
  • Second Megapack factory starts construction - 95%
  • Second Megapack factory begins production - 70%
  • Improved Powerwall product launched - 65%
  • Home HVAC product revealed - 60%
  • US Supercharger stalls double January 2023 number - 50%
  • Optimus helps build Optimus (Geofenced) - 85%
  • Optimus helps build Gen3 cars (Geofenced) - 75%
  • Optimus Production 100 per week - 65%
  • Optimus Production 1,000 per week - 25%
  • FSD ready for regulatory approval - 65%
  • FSD gets regulatory approval - 25%
IMO FSD is the harder problem Optimus can still do very useful work in a constrained geofenced environment with minimal unexpected variation.
 
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#371
cab said:
As I watched a few FSD 11 videos this week I casually realized "These are getting boring." Then I realized "why": FSD is getting so darn good the videos are turning into "a car drives around town and makes a few mistakes" videos. Sure, there are still any number of opportunities for improvement and legit "that could have caused an accident" moments, but sheesh it's impressive already. Bored Watching FSD Videos = Bullish!
Click to expand...
 
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#373
Buckminster said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1613794836272021504
Click to expand...
Maybe. I think, in the end, the Gigafactory revolution is the true driving force. Affordability, especially with higher interest rates, is the primary driver of adoption of Tesla and bankruptcy of most OEM's. They are barely 'competing' while taking a loss right now. How can anyone compete when Tesla drops an additional 40% in manufacturing costs? Especially while maintaining (or increasing due to less complexity) industry leading QC (for mass production). And once a couple more Gigas are pumping out gen3, Tesla can lower margins even more.

I didn't consider myself a Super Bull (just an 'average-cautious long-term Bull) before ID, but the more I reflect on their plan, the more it seems inevitably successful on a scale no one has seen before.
 
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#374
KBF said:
Affordability, especially with higher interest rates, is the primary driver of adoption of Tesla and bankruptcy of most OEM's.
Click to expand...
Correction: I meant to say "will be the primary driver of ubiquitous adoption..." - originally Tesla's adoption rate came from being the first 'high performance' BEV that was actually available to whomever wanted to buy (my local Ford dealer refused to sell me a hybrid 10+ years ago, and Toyota also said they weren't going to stock any - those were only suitable for 'other markets' apparently)
 
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#380
https://twitter.com/x/status/1651130868075991040
Crazy bear trap theory:
  1. CT (plus Cyberquad) reveal in September
  2. Alongside handsfree autopilot in US (or even FSD?? - Elon did say again this year)
  3. Could roughly correlate to first interest rate reduction
  4. October - prices increase across the range as demand improves
  5. Buyback has got to come some time
 
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