Tesla Auto Pilot Within Three Years

[surfside]

Having been interested in driverless cars for a while now (my interest began about the same time that I started learning about Tesla), I've been intrigued to hear Elon talk in the past about Tesla and the potential for driverless cars.

Click here for a new interview with the Financial Times where Elon indicates that he believes Tesla will have Auto Pilot technology capable of autonomously driving the car for 90% of total miles driven within three years. Elon has mentioned before that he believes that Google has it wrong with regard to the technology required to create driverless cars (essentially saying that their technology is too expensive); it will certainly be interesting to see how Elon intends to incorporate this "Auto Pilot" technology into its cars.

Any thoughts on whether this story will have an impact on the stock tomorrow? It certainly feels like a meaningful announcement to me, but I may be biased given my interest in driverless cars. Interested to hear other folks' thoughts.

Surfside

 

[borat99]

In case people hit a paywall, here is the article.

Tesla moves ahead from Google in race to build self-driving cars


The Tesla Model S, Motor Trend Car of the Year is introduced at the 2013 North American International Auto Show in Detroit, Michigan©AFP
Robot cars that can take over most of the driving from their human handlers will be ready for the road within three years, according to Elon Musk, the US electric cars and space entrepreneur whose bold predictions have come to embody an ambitious new era in tech industry thinking.


Tesla Motors , which startled traditional automotive giants such as General Motors and Renault -Nissan with its electric cars, is now joining the race to build cars that can drive themselves, Mr Musk, the chief executive, said.


The attempt to build a driverless car would see Tesla overtake Google , which three years ago fired the starting gun in this technological race but has since struggled to find a partner to build the cars.


It also marks the latest attempt by Mr Musk to gain a technological jump on the rest of the industry after his company’s luxury sedan, the Model S, became the first profitable electric vehicle this year.


“We should be able to do 90 per cent of miles driven within three years,” he said. Mr Musk would not reveal further details of Tesla’s autonomy project, but said it was “internal development” rather than technology being supplied by another company. “It’s not speculation,” he said.


The company is currently advertising a new job for an engineer “responsible for developing vehicle-level decision-making and lateral and longitudinal control strategies for Tesla’s effort to pioneer fully automated driving” on its website.


A number of companies including Mercedes-Benz, Volvo and Continental have experimented with self-driving car technology.


Japanese carmaker Nissan said last month that it would release a fully autonomous car by 2020, though Mr Musk said he believed that the idea of creating a car that would control itself under all circumstances was too ambitious.


“My opinion is it’s a bridge too far to go to fully autonomous cars,” Mr Musk said in an interview with the Financial Times. “It’s incredibly hard to get the last few per cent.”


He said, however, that Tesla was working on a plan that would allow drivers to turn on a form of “auto-pilot” in most situations that would allow the vehicle to take over control.


Tesla, which expects to sell 21,000 of its Model S sedans this year, has seen excitement over its industry-leading battery technology and plans to build a more mass-market electric car send its share price up more than 400 per cent so far in 2013, to a market capitalisation of more than $20bn.


Tesla, formed in 2003, had been expected to be among the companies to consider a tie-up with Google to use the search company’s autonomous driving technology.


Mr Musk’s rejection of the idea of a fully autonomous car, however, was the latest sign that Google has had trouble finding partners among established carmakers to bring its technology to the road.


One person familiar with Google’s efforts said carmakers had been hesitant about adopting the Google technology because of the potential liabilities from accidents involving robot cars. Google would not comment.

 

[Cameron]

Very interesting! To me this just says that Tesla is working on even bigger projects then most people realize.
Unfortunately, I don't know if the world is quite ready for driverless cars, and in 3 years time is especially shocking. I wouldn't be surprised if the stock reacts negatively at first, but once it's discussed and maybe more details come out about what exactly Elon is planning, we could see it rally.

 

[borat99]

It'll probably a shock for me at first, but I'll be ready for it if they can show me that's safe. On the bright side, Google has already proven that it can be safe. Google's Self-Driving Cars: 300,000 Miles Logged, Not a Single Accident Under Computer Control - Rebecca J. Rosen - The Atlantic

 

[Convert2013]

Very interesting! To me this just says that Tesla is working on even bigger projects then most people realize.
Unfortunately, I don't know if the world is quite ready for driverless cars, and in 3 years time is especially shocking. I wouldn't be surprised if the stock reacts negatively at first, but once it's discussed and maybe more details come out about what exactly Elon is planning, we could see it rally.

I do hope Tesla is doing this in close coordination with the NHTSA from the get-go, to avoid safety related compliance surprises too late in the game.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Not driverless. It's simply never going to happen except in closed systems. Auto-pilot, yes.

 

[surfside]

For some additional context, here is a link to a series of Forbes articles about driverless cars that is pretty interesting and provides insights into just how far reaching driverless cars could eventually be.

Surfside

 

[blakegallagher]

Elon had mentioned before that the tech might be ready for Gen 3. I guess now that he declared 3 years he is shooting to get it on the Model E. I think it is safe to say the Model S and X will get many more safety features relatively soon.

 

[callmesam]

For some additional context, here is a link to a series of Forbes articles about driverless cars that is pretty interesting and provides insights into just how far reaching driverless cars could eventually be.

Surfside

Chunka Mui has been incredibly prescient when it comes to autopilot.

Elon once called his system a Super Smart Active Safety System.

Wonder if he'll call it SSASSYS or sassies.

 

[Causalien]

Chunka Mui has been incredibly prescient when it comes to autopilot. Elon once called his system a Super Smart Active Safety System. Wonder if he'll call it SSASSYS or sassies.

If you look at the job posting for driverless. It seems to tatget Sebastien Thrun of Google. A doctorate level candidate.

 

[T B]

I'm a bit concerned about having about one second warning time when the autopilot decides the traffic situation is too complex for it (the remaining 10%) and I have to take over. In a split second I have to (put away the phone I was tinkering with) reach for the wheel, examine the traffic situation around the car, and react correctly to it.
But somehow I trust Mr Musk and his engineers they will solve it.

 

[marvinat0rz]

I'm a bit concerned about having about one second warning time when the autopilot decides the traffic situation is too complex for it (the remaining 10%) and I have to take over. In a split second I have to (put away the phone I was tinkering with) reach for the wheel, examine the traffic situation around the car, and react correctly to it.
But somehow I trust Mr Musk and his engineers they will solve it.

You won't be allowed to play with your phone when your car is on autopilot - I'm certain you'll have liability even when the autopilot is active. So you have to pay attention at all times, but you won't have to actively drive the car. Given that you do this, it will only be a question of grabbing the wheel and taking over. Until we get to a situation of driverless cars sometime in the semi-distant future, the driver will always have the legal responsibility and always have the attention on the road.

Airline pilots sometimes land the aircraft on autopilot, but you can be damn sure they're not playing Angry Birds on short final. Angry Birds might be played in cruise, when the weather is nice and there are no expected problems. If things gradually start to look more challenging, the iPad has to go. This is in fact a flawed analogy; traffic is a lot more hectic than the cruise portion of an airline flight. On an airplane, conditions will almost never change in less than 20 seconds. In a car, things can really change on a second-to-second basis.

 

[bonaire]

Autopilot cars on roadways full of non-Autopilot cars seems dangerous. I think autopilot works when all cars are working concurrently under autopilot.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Autopilot cars on roadways full of non-Autopilot cars seems dangerous. I think autopilot works when all cars are working concurrently under autopilot.

Yeah, but that has the chicken and egg problem

 

[RationalOptimist]

I've taken a ride in one of Google's driverless cars. It's a truly mindshifting experience. It hurled itself around a track, wheels squealing, pinpoint accuracy. Far, far, far better driver than I could ever be. People are going to be truly shocked by this technology. Marketing it as 'autopilot' rather than driverless is genius, and will get acceptance much earlier. If Elon can get a version of this done to include in Gen3, look out world.

 

[bonaire]

How does it work in a dust-storm or heavy fog? What if James Bond throws out an oil slick and smoke bomb?

 

[LASpark]

I think for 2016 they are probably referring to active cruise control combined with lane keeping, giving you hands free freeway driving.

 

[Norbert]

Tesla enters race to build self-driving car - Yahoo Finance

Elon talking about Tesla having 90% self-driving cars in 3 years: I think implied is the intention to stay cutting edge also in car technology, not just electric drive trains, and that Tesla is a tech company. That may also be, partly, a response to recent marketing talk by the older auto companies about their electric car plans.

- - - Updated - - -

Trader (technicals) bullish about Tesla:

Trader: "Tesla is Apple, pre-iPhone"￾ | Talking Numbers - Yahoo Finance

 

[gregincal]

I'm a bit concerned about having about one second warning time when the autopilot decides the traffic situation is too complex for it (the remaining 10%) and I have to take over. In a split second I have to (put away the phone I was tinkering with) reach for the wheel, examine the traffic situation around the car, and react correctly to it.
But somehow I trust Mr Musk and his engineers they will solve it.

I don't think the situations they are talking about are the emergency situations. The car should always be able to avoid hitting another car and can react better and faster than a human ever could. I would imagine something like merging traffic when there is a lane closure would be difficult, but you would have plenty of time to take over.

Anything too complicated for the computer is also going to require human drivers to slow down.

 

[Robert.Boston]

I find it wryly amusing that Elon is talking about auto-pilot when the Model S doesn't even have parking sensors!