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Tesla Auto Pilot Within Three Years

Discussion in 'Tesla Motors' started by surfside, Sep 17, 2013.

  1. surfside

    surfside Member

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    Having been interested in driverless cars for a while now (my interest began about the same time that I started learning about Tesla), I've been intrigued to hear Elon talk in the past about Tesla and the potential for driverless cars.

    Click here for a new interview with the Financial Times where Elon indicates that he believes Tesla will have Auto Pilot technology capable of autonomously driving the car for 90% of total miles driven within three years. Elon has mentioned before that he believes that Google has it wrong with regard to the technology required to create driverless cars (essentially saying that their technology is too expensive); it will certainly be interesting to see how Elon intends to incorporate this "Auto Pilot" technology into its cars.

    Any thoughts on whether this story will have an impact on the stock tomorrow? It certainly feels like a meaningful announcement to me, but I may be biased given my interest in driverless cars. Interested to hear other folks' thoughts.

    Surfside
     
  2. borat99

    borat99 Member

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    In case people hit a paywall, here is the article.

     
  3. Cameron

    Cameron Member

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    Very interesting! To me this just says that Tesla is working on even bigger projects then most people realize.
    Unfortunately, I don't know if the world is quite ready for driverless cars, and in 3 years time is especially shocking. I wouldn't be surprised if the stock reacts negatively at first, but once it's discussed and maybe more details come out about what exactly Elon is planning, we could see it rally.
     
  4. borat99

    borat99 Member

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  5. Convert2013

    Convert2013 Member

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    I do hope Tesla is doing this in close coordination with the NHTSA from the get-go, to avoid safety related compliance surprises too late in the game.
     
  6. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    Not driverless. It's simply never going to happen except in closed systems. Auto-pilot, yes.
     
  7. surfside

    surfside Member

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    For some additional context, here is a link to a series of Forbes articles about driverless cars that is pretty interesting and provides insights into just how far reaching driverless cars could eventually be.

    Surfside
     
  8. blakegallagher

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    Elon had mentioned before that the tech might be ready for Gen 3. I guess now that he declared 3 years he is shooting to get it on the Model E. I think it is safe to say the Model S and X will get many more safety features relatively soon.
     
  9. callmesam

    callmesam Member

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    Chunka Mui has been incredibly prescient when it comes to autopilot.

    Elon once called his system a Super Smart Active Safety System.

    Wonder if he'll call it SSASSYS or sassies.
     
  10. Causalien

    Causalien Reaper of Trolls

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    If you look at the job posting for driverless. It seems to tatget Sebastien Thrun of Google. A doctorate level candidate.
     
  11. T B

    T B President, Tesla Club Sweden

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    I'm a bit concerned about having about one second warning time when the autopilot decides the traffic situation is too complex for it (the remaining 10%) and I have to take over. In a split second I have to (put away the phone I was tinkering with) reach for the wheel, examine the traffic situation around the car, and react correctly to it.
    But somehow I trust Mr Musk and his engineers they will solve it.
     
  12. marvinat0rz

    marvinat0rz Member

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    You won't be allowed to play with your phone when your car is on autopilot - I'm certain you'll have liability even when the autopilot is active. So you have to pay attention at all times, but you won't have to actively drive the car. Given that you do this, it will only be a question of grabbing the wheel and taking over. Until we get to a situation of driverless cars sometime in the semi-distant future, the driver will always have the legal responsibility and always have the attention on the road.

    Airline pilots sometimes land the aircraft on autopilot, but you can be damn sure they're not playing Angry Birds on short final. Angry Birds might be played in cruise, when the weather is nice and there are no expected problems. If things gradually start to look more challenging, the iPad has to go. This is in fact a flawed analogy; traffic is a lot more hectic than the cruise portion of an airline flight. On an airplane, conditions will almost never change in less than 20 seconds. In a car, things can really change on a second-to-second basis.
     
  13. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    Autopilot cars on roadways full of non-Autopilot cars seems dangerous. I think autopilot works when all cars are working concurrently under autopilot.
     
  14. Mario Kadastik

    Mario Kadastik Active Member

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    Yeah, but that has the chicken and egg problem :)
     
  15. RationalOptimist

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    I've taken a ride in one of Google's driverless cars. It's a truly mindshifting experience. It hurled itself around a track, wheels squealing, pinpoint accuracy. Far, far, far better driver than I could ever be. People are going to be truly shocked by this technology. Marketing it as 'autopilot' rather than driverless is genius, and will get acceptance much earlier. If Elon can get a version of this done to include in Gen3, look out world.
     
  16. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    How does it work in a dust-storm or heavy fog? What if James Bond throws out an oil slick and smoke bomb? :)
     
  17. LASpark

    LASpark Member

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    I think for 2016 they are probably referring to active cruise control combined with lane keeping, giving you hands free freeway driving.
     
  18. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    Tesla enters race to build self-driving car - Yahoo Finance

    Elon talking about Tesla having 90% self-driving cars in 3 years: I think implied is the intention to stay cutting edge also in car technology, not just electric drive trains, and that Tesla is a tech company. That may also be, partly, a response to recent marketing talk by the older auto companies about their electric car plans.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Trader (technicals) bullish about Tesla:

    Trader: "Tesla is Apple, pre-iPhone"￾ | Talking Numbers - Yahoo Finance
     
  19. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    I don't think the situations they are talking about are the emergency situations. The car should always be able to avoid hitting another car and can react better and faster than a human ever could. I would imagine something like merging traffic when there is a lane closure would be difficult, but you would have plenty of time to take over.

    Anything too complicated for the computer is also going to require human drivers to slow down.
     
  20. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    I find it wryly amusing that Elon is talking about auto-pilot when the Model S doesn't even have parking sensors!
     

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