Tesla autopilot HW3

[S100D]

Elon put out a bunch of now infamous tweets about when FSD would happen but the FSD order page on the website never promised that FSD would be available by the end of 2017.

@diplomat33, I Googled Elon's broken promises and here is what I found:

Full Self Driving

• Ahhh, Elon's favorite phrase: "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely."
• Elon "definitely" promised FSD six months from January 23rd, 2017."

This may have been in a tweet, but it was promised by Elon so my statement of it being promised by the end of 2017 is true. If did not happen by the end of 2018 and I doubt we will see Full Self Driving by the end of 2019.

Self-Driven Cross-Country Trip

• Was promised in 2017. It's now 2019. What gives, Elon?

Elon had to have FSD working to meet his promise of driving from California to New York by the end of 2017.

The Full Self Driving webpage always has:

Please note that Full Self Driving functionality is dependent on extensive validation and regulatory approval. This is Elon's get out of jail card that he can always blame FSD not being available now.

He cannot use this excuse because the coast to coast FSD drive by 2017 never happened so FSD was not working and is still not completely working.

 

[diplomat33]

@Diplomat, I Googled Elon's broken promises and here is what I found:

Full Self Driving

• Ahhh, Elon's favorite phrase: "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely."
• Elon "definitely" promised FSD six months from January 23rd, 2017."

This may have been in a tweet, but it was promised by Elon so my statement of it being promised by the end of 2017 is true. If did not happen by the end of 2018 and I doubt we will see Full Self Driving by the end of 2019.

Self-Driven Cross-Country Trip

• Was promised in 2017. It's now 2019. What gives, Elon?

Elon had to have FSD working to meet his promise of driving from California to New York by the end of 2017.

The Full Self Driving webpage always has:

Please note that Full Self Driving functionality is dependent on extensive validation and regulatory approval. This is Elon's get out of jail card that he can always blame FSD not being available now.

He cannot use this excuse because the coast to coast FSD drive by 2017 never happened so FSD was not working and is still not completely working.

I don't disagree. Like I said in my post, Elon did make a bunch of predictions about FSD (that it would happen in 2017). But the Tesla website did not.

 

[S100D]

I don't disagree. Like I said in my post, Elon did make a bunch of predictions about FSD (that it would happen in 2017). But the Tesla website did not.

You need to stop quoting what is on Tesla's website because they change it constantly. What is there today is not there tomorrow. Blog posts about promising Early FSD Adopters invitations to join the Early Access Program was removed.

You make predictions about what is coming without any inside information. Please stop drinking Tesla's Cool-Aid and being a Fan Boy. Your posts will be a lot more creditable if you do this.

I love my Tesla Model S so I am not a Tesla or Elon hater. What bothers me is when Elon's makes promises and then breaks them,

 

[diplomat33]

You need to stop quoting what is on Tesla's website because they change it constantly. What is there today is not there tomorrow. Blog posts about promising Early FSD Adopters invitations to join the Early Access Program was removed.

You make predictions about what is coming without any inside information. Please stop drinking Tesla's Cool-Aid and being a Fan Boy. Your posts will be a lot more creditable if you do this.

I love my Tesla Model S so I am not a Tesla or Elon hater. What bothers me is when Elon's makes promises and then breaks them,

I think you misunderstand. I am not predicting that Tesla will deliver FSD this year because the website says so. I was merely trying to be factual about what the website says. In fact, I specifically predict that Tesla will miss their deadline and NOT deliver FSD this year. How is merely quoting the website but predicting that Tesla will not deliver their promises on time being a "Tesla fanboy"?

Here is my post from the "prediction automatic city driving" thread:

Maybe you are rubbing off on me but Elon's "a few months" kinda makes me think that "automatic city driving" might get pushed back to say early 2020, I would say around Jan-March 2020. I mean, somehow I doubt "a few months" means in the next 2 months. And Elon's tweets sounds like Tesla wants to coordinate the release of the software to happen at the same time as the hardware upgrades. So my interpretation of Elon's tweet is that Tesla is planning to do the FSD computer upgrades en masse and release the FSD software at the same time around Jan-March 2020 if I had to guess.

And the Tesla website promoted Enhanced Summon as available now... really for months before it actually came out. So there is precedent for Tesla not issuing any retraction. Just sayin'.

Does that post sound like I am drinking the Tesla kool-aid? I don't think so.

 

[timewasted]

I don't disagree. Like I said in my post, Elon did make a bunch of predictions about FSD (that it would happen in 2017). But the Tesla website did not.

Once again, you’re wrong. This is what the design studio looked like on November 29th, 2016:



It very plainly says that these features, which are still only in the process of rolling out, would be released in December of 2016.

But by all means, let’s not let pesky little things like facts get in the way of some good white knighting.

 

[am_dmd]

It's amazing how they BS deadlines regarding features for the product they are selling and if it does not happen they change the content of those said features. Is there no legal obligation or consequences here?
I guess there plan is to go find new customers with every new product release and rest of us read between the lines ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[diplomat33]

Once again, you’re wrong. This is what the design studio looked like on November 29th, 2016:

View attachment 465464

It very plainly says that these features, which are still only in the process of rolling out, would be released in December of 2016.

But by all means, let’s not let pesky little things like facts get in the way of some good white knighting.

It is clearly talking about Enhanced Autopilot features rolling out in Dec 2016, not FSD features! I was talking about FSD.

So my statement that the FSD page did not promise a specific date was correct.

I want to be clear that I am NOT defending Tesla here. I fully acknowledge the facts that Tesla promised EAP by Dec 2016 and failed to deliver on time and Elon promised FSD and coast to coast demos in 2017 and it turned out to be total BS. I think we agree on more than we disagree.

 

[am_dmd]

It is clearly talking about Enhanced Autopilot features rolling out in Dec 2016, not FSD features! I was talking about FSD.

So my statement that the FSD page did not promise a specific date was correct.

I want to be clear that I am NOT defending Tesla here. I fully acknowledge the facts that Tesla promised EAP by Dec 2016 and failed to deliver on time and Elon promised FSD and coast to coast demos in 2017 and it turned out to be total BS. I think we agree on more than we disagree.

So basically we should not have listened the CEO? Why the hell Tesla did not refute CEO claims? I guess this is the new excuse Tesla did not make any claims it was just the CEO

 

[ahkahn]

So basically we should not have listened the CEO? Why the hell Tesla did not refute CEO claims? I guess this is the new excuse Tesla did not make any claims it was just the CEO

I don't get the arguing. Are we just arguing to say "Tesla sucks"?

The reality is that this is pioneer-level engineering of both software and hardware, and if it were that easy, I suspect there would be many others by now that would have already accomplished it (along with Tesla, who grossly overestimated their abilities to surmount this task). I don't for a minute believe that Tesla willfully mislead people in order to sell cars. I think Tesla grossly underestimated the time and engineering know-how it would take to accomplish this. Evidence of this is that Autopilot has been rewritten from the ground up at least three times that we know of (Original AP2 stack, Chris Lattner's attempts, then Andrej Karpathy's total rewrite and institution of NN's) which set them back at least a year. Not to mention the hardware 3.0 undertaking replacing the hardware 2.0/2.5 which was supposed to be able to handle the FSD.

If it were that easy, Waymo, Google, Apple, GM, Ford, and so many others would have beat Tesla... but the reality is that nobody else has, and Tesla is still the leader by far, albeit late/delayed on their successes.

I don't fault Elon for being grossly optimistic (hell, he still is). We all know Rome wasn't built in a day, and you can look back to 2016 and watch the evolution of Autopilot as it sits today and realize that it's come a very long way.

Back to the original question - What would you expect Elon to say? Dude has no more idea about when it's going to be done than you or me. They're blazing a trail, not building something that exists today. Take all of it with a grain of salt - he only knows what they're working on, how close they seem to be to the goal (assuming they don't hit a brick wall and have to start over), and is trying to be as transparent as possible (obviously to his and Tesla's own detriment).

 

[Watts_Up]

May be wait getting FSD until a real cross country on autopilot will be performed.

 

[diplomat33]

So basically we should not have listened the CEO? Why the hell Tesla did not refute CEO claims? I guess this is the new excuse Tesla did not make any claims it was just the CEO

No. I think we should pay attention to all communications that come from a company. We should listen to what the CEO says and what is on the website, press releases, blogs. We should pay attention to all of it. We should not dismiss what Elon says just because the website says something different. But we should also not dismiss what the website says just because Elon says something different.

And by the way, the reason I am constantly posting Elon's tweets, is not because I endorse them or believe them. I am merely trying to be informative because I think posters might want to know what Elon has said. Whether you believe him or not, it is good to know what he is saying. That's why I post them.

 

[ChrML]

I don't get the arguing. Are we just arguing to say "Tesla sucks"?

The reality is that this is pioneer-level engineering of both software and hardware, and if it were that easy, I suspect there would be many others by now that would have already accomplished it (along with Tesla, who grossly overestimated their abilities to surmount this task). I don't for a minute believe that Tesla willfully mislead people in order to sell cars. I think Tesla grossly underestimated the time and engineering know-how it would take to accomplish this. Evidence of this is that Autopilot has been rewritten from the ground up at least three times that we know of (Original AP2 stack, Chris Lattner's attempts, then Andrej Karpathy's total rewrite and institution of NN's) which set them back at least a year. Not to mention the hardware 3.0 undertaking replacing the hardware 2.0/2.5 which was supposed to be able to handle the FSD.

If it were that easy, Waymo, Google, Apple, GM, Ford, and so many others would have beat Tesla... but the reality is that nobody else has, and Tesla is still the leader by far, albeit late/delayed on their successes.

I don't fault Elon for being grossly optimistic (hell, he still is). We all know Rome wasn't built in a day, and you can look back to 2016 and watch the evolution of Autopilot as it sits today and realize that it's come a very long way.

Back to the original question - What would you expect Elon to say? Dude has no more idea about when it's going to be done than you or me. They're blazing a trail, not building something that exists today. Take all of it with a grain of salt - he only knows what they're working on, how close they seem to be to the goal (assuming they don't hit a brick wall and have to start over), and is trying to be as transparent as possible (obviously to his and Tesla's own detriment).

Yes, that's the truth. All we ask is that Tesla has that amount of transparency on the FSD Order page, so the customer knows there's a risk buying that feature. Instead of making claims nobody knows they will be able to fulfill.

 

[ahkahn]

Yes, that's the truth. All we ask is that Tesla has that amount of transparency on the FSD Order page, so the customer knows there's a risk buying that feature. Instead of making claims nobody knows they will be able to fulfill.

I think the point that @diplomat33 has been trying to make is that the claims aren't on the ordering page other than it says it will work "some time in the future". Elon's tweet's are a different story, but are not official Tesla communications. FSD from 2016 through today is vaporware, and Tesla has been very forthright in saying so. Anyone who purchased it (and I did end up purchasing it back during the March, 2019 sale) is buying it sight-unseen and on pure speculation. There is nothing wrong with that, short of people getting chapped because it hasn't materialized in the timeframe that they [and Tesla] would have wanted it to materialize. That's not anybody's fault, nor is it malicious, or willful misleading like many on here seem to think.

 

[Bladerskb]

If it were that easy, Waymo, Google, Apple, GM, Ford, and so many others would have beat Tesla... but the reality is that nobody else has, and Tesla is still the leader by far, albeit late/delayed on their successes.

Leader in what? Do you have any shred of evidence to back this up or is this the usual I love believing and spreading lies and myths that Tesla fans do?

 

[am_dmd]

I don't get the arguing. Are we just arguing to say "Tesla sucks"?

The reality is that this is pioneer-level engineering of both software and hardware, and if it were that easy, I suspect there would be many others by now that would have already accomplished it (along with Tesla, who grossly overestimated their abilities to surmount this task). I don't for a minute believe that Tesla willfully mislead people in order to sell cars. I think Tesla grossly underestimated the time and engineering know-how it would take to accomplish this. Evidence of this is that Autopilot has been rewritten from the ground up at least three times that we know of (Original AP2 stack, Chris Lattner's attempts, then Andrej Karpathy's total rewrite and institution of NN's) which set them back at least a year. Not to mention the hardware 3.0 undertaking replacing the hardware 2.0/2.5 which was supposed to be able to handle the FSD.

If it were that easy, Waymo, Google, Apple, GM, Ford, and so many others would have beat Tesla... but the reality is that nobody else has, and Tesla is still the leader by far, albeit late/delayed on their successes.

I don't fault Elon for being grossly optimistic (hell, he still is). We all know Rome wasn't built in a day, and you can look back to 2016 and watch the evolution of Autopilot as it sits today and realize that it's come a very long way.

Back to the original question - What would you expect Elon to say? Dude has no more idea about when it's going to be done than you or me. They're blazing a trail, not building something that exists today. Take all of it with a grain of salt - he only knows what they're working on, how close they seem to be to the goal (assuming they don't hit a brick wall and have to start over), and is trying to be as transparent as possible (obviously to his and Tesla's own detriment).

I would have expected Elon to say "I am sorry but we are not even close to EAP/FSD and we will be issuing refund to all those who paid". I wish we had similar to SEC for his BS claims.

 

[am_dmd]

No. I think we should pay attention to all communications that come from a company. We should listen to what the CEO says and what is on the website, press releases, blogs. We should pay attention to all of it. We should not dismiss what Elon says just because the website says something different. But we should also not dismiss what the website says just because Elon says something different.

And by the way, the reason I am constantly posting Elon's tweets, is not because I endorse them or believe them. I am merely trying to be informative because I think posters might want to know what Elon has said. Whether you believe him or not, it is good to know what he is saying. That's why I post them.

Huh? So do I follow Tesla website or CEO claims? If they both contradict do you know who do I contact and confirm such claims?
For a while I thought you are a Tesla employee or Elon's PA . I need to up my Elon koolaid.

 

[ahkahn]

Leader in what? Do you have any shred of evidence to back this up or is this the usual I love believing and spreading lies and myths that Tesla fans do?

Well, can you refute the claim? Who's system is more advanced and in actual production vehicles?

I would have expected Elon to say "I am sorry but we are not even close to EAP/FSD and we will be issuing refund to all those who paid". I wish we had similar to SEC for his BS claims.

I don't think Elon has any idea whether they're close or not. He sees the progress and probably think they're days away from nailing it. Clearly you've never had to solve a problem that ends up being harder than originally thought?!

 

[diplomat33]

If it were that easy, Waymo, Google, Apple, GM, Ford, and so many others would have beat Tesla... but the reality is that nobody else has, and Tesla is still the leader by far, albeit late/delayed on their successes.

If the goal is autonomous driving, Waymo has definitely beaten Tesla. Waymo has L4 robotaxis on public roads NOW, Tesla does not. See this article: Waymo to customers: ‘Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way’ – TechCrunch

And if Tesla is late or delayed, then by definition, they can't really be the leader, can they? You can't have your cake and eat it too. You can't say that they are the leader even though they are not actually the leader because they got delayed.

What Tesla does have is a good and ever improving driver assist. And maybe Tesla will get to autonomous driving someday (I hope they do) but they are not there yet. I love AP but Tesla is definitely not the leader in autonomous driving right now.

I would have expected Elon to say "I am sorry but we are not even close to EAP/FSD and we will be issuing refund to all those who paid". I wish we had similar to SEC for his BS claims.

Maybe it should have happened. But Elon has tweeted many times about how the company is losing money and can't afford to give away X for free. So it is highly unlikely that Elon would ever authorize a refund like that when the company is already in the red.

Huh? So do I follow Tesla website or CEO claims? If they both contradict do you know who do I contact and confirm such claims? For a while I thought you are a Tesla employee or Elon's PA . I need to up my Elon koolaid.

Everybody should make their own determination who they believe more. Personally, even though the words of a CEO carry a lot of weight, I consider the website a bit more authoritative, only because it is what customers see and click on when they buy the car.

And no, I don't work for Tesla or Elon. Never have and not planning to do either. I am just a regular Tesla owner.

 

[am_dmd]

Well, can you refute the claim? Who's system is more advanced and in actual production vehicles?



I don't think Elon has any idea whether they're close or not. He sees the progress and probably think they're days away from nailing it. Clearly you've never had to solve a problem that ends up being harder than originally thought?!

I am sure guy is not a dumb*** not to learn from past

 

[am_dmd]

If the goal is autonomous driving, Waymo has definitely beaten Tesla. Waymo has L4 robotaxis on public roads NOW, Tesla does not. See this article: Waymo to customers: ‘Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way’ – TechCrunch

And if Tesla is late or delayed, then by definition, they can't really be the leader, can they? You can't have your cake and eat it too. You can't say that they are the leader even though they are not actually the leader because they got delayed.

What Tesla does have is a good and ever improving driver assist. And maybe Tesla will get to autonomous driving someday (I hope they do) but they are not there yet. I love AP but Tesla is definitely not the leader in autonomous driving right now.



Maybe it should have happened. But Elon has tweeted many times about how the company is losing money and can't afford to give away X for free. So it is highly unlikely that Elon would ever authorize a refund like that when the company is already in the red.



Everybody should make their own determination who they believe more. Personally, even though the words of a CEO carry a lot of weight, I consider the website a bit more authoritative, only because it is what customers see and click on when they buy the car.

And no, I don't work for Tesla or Elon. Never have and not planning to do either. I am just a regular Tesla owner.

No body is asking X for free. In fact I am asking what Tesla is holding mine for FREE.