They were clearly measuring based on time from CAR STOP to CAR GO. (and with the bill later, credit on file payment method, any argument about "What about having to spend time paying for it before driving off" is a moot point)
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Tesla battery swap: Post announcement discussion
- Thread starter dsm363
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They were clearly measuring based on time from CAR STOP to CAR GO. (and with the bill later, credit on file payment method, any argument about "What about having to spend time paying for it before driving off" is a moot point)
deonb
Active Member
I don't think anybody is missing that. This is a marketing tool. It quiets the naysayers. It gets the feet in the store.
You can't really tell someone exactly what it's like to live with an EV. I thought I knew, but I didn't.
Would I care if battery swap never makes it over here? No.
Is Elon's (very good) description below an important concern for me now? No.
Elon: "I think it's important for us to address the concerns that people have. We need to address the reasons that people are not buying electric cars. In order to have mainstream adoption, people need to feel that they have the same level of freedom that they have with gasoline cars. And I think that's really at the heart of it. If you buy a gasoline car you have this feeling: you can drive anywhere you want, any time you want, and we want to give people that same sense of freedom with an electric car. So that they can feel that if they need to get somewhere in a hurry that they can do that. In fact they can get their faster with an electric car than they can with a gasoline car. It's just really important for us to address those objections, since they fundamentally affects people's willingness to buy electric cars."
HOWEVER, was that an important concern for me at the time I bought the car? Absolutely.
I just figured I'll still drive my Highlander Hybrid about half the time. NOT. It still has the same tank of gas in there it had in February (and I used to stop at the gas station once per week).
Now I can't stand the act of paying for gas. And the thought of paying for something else that costs the same is definitely not appealing.
But if you gave me a survey a year ago about whether I would need battery swap - absolutely, for sure, where do I sign up?
BriansTesla
Old school meets new tech
As a Model S 60 owner, this is a great solution for me! 99% of the time my battery is perfect for my daily and weekend driving. Once in a while, I will choose to borrow an 85 or larger battery pack for a trip and would probably use the Superchargers in route.
Had I known about this earlier, I might have bought a 40!
Had I known about this earlier, I might have bought a 40!
mitch672
Active Member
+1 deonb, pack swapping isn't really for current owners, it's purpose is to attract future owners, if it does that, it generates more Model S sales, and additional profits towards developing Gen 3... The fact that it might not get used much doesn't really matter, as the 50 packs co-located with it will be used to lower grid demand charges from the utilites during SuperCharger sessions. It's just part of the S.C. Ecosystem, if they didn't have the swapper, they'd still need the packs at busy Supercharger locations anyway.
I think some here are forgetting that Tesla has a WHOLE other group of customers that are NOT from TMC. "Impatient" people (quoting a descriptor earlier used by someone else) generally don't lurk on forums. I would see this group include artistes, actors, actresses, high ranking politicians, etc.
Also, let's not forget about the ones who don't WANT to be seen waiting at a supercharger (or be seen at all). Get in, swap, get out. Chauffeured owners will also want this. New/Inexperienced drivers may also want this - If I've never driven a Tesla or any EV and I know nothing about supercharging or charging at all and I rent a Model S from Hertz for example, that means I have ZERO experience with that free option. I'd probably be perfectly comfortable with paying for that swap and just go as I'm used to in my ICE which I had probably been driving up to less than 24 hours before renting the Tesla.
When you say "nobody" wants this option, perhaps you mean "nobody HERE" wants this option.
Also, let's not forget about the ones who don't WANT to be seen waiting at a supercharger (or be seen at all). Get in, swap, get out. Chauffeured owners will also want this. New/Inexperienced drivers may also want this - If I've never driven a Tesla or any EV and I know nothing about supercharging or charging at all and I rent a Model S from Hertz for example, that means I have ZERO experience with that free option. I'd probably be perfectly comfortable with paying for that swap and just go as I'm used to in my ICE which I had probably been driving up to less than 24 hours before renting the Tesla.
When you say "nobody" wants this option, perhaps you mean "nobody HERE" wants this option.
Elon has stated repeatedly his goal is to make EVs more accessible. The folks you're listing aren't really pushing down into that mass adoption market. If anything, they're even less so. I don't think his goal is to capture portion of that tiny market that was hesitant.
And if swaps are the solution to gaining mass market, why build out super chargers? Tesla's message on the swapping is shooting holes in its message about Superchargers.
This is not the Gen 3 mass market car.
As for that tiny upper class market that was hesitant:
Elon: "We will not stop until every car on the roads is electric".
This is a luxury premium (heck they even used an Audi A8 to compare refuelling vs swapping - who buys an Audi A8 with features such as retractable complete privacy screens? - The people who DONT WANT TO BE SEEN.) car for the upper class (Previously the upper 1%, now the upper 10% in his words).
So yes I stand by my analysis.
EDIT: On top of that, he's a fan of optionality - even if the option is not used. It's there for the sake of being there which is what several articles have indicated is the "problem" with EVs. The "option" of freely being able to easily travel from one end of the USA to the other with 5 minute refuelling stops anywhere along the way is what is holding people back from switching to EV....... EVEN THOUGH NOBODY DOES THIS. It is an OPTION.)
Today: Great for 40/60kWh folks who want to take a trip. As an 85kWh owner, I would be a little irk'd (not a lot since TM has mentioned swapping in the past). All things being equal, this is huge for TM and their ability to innovate. The financials for swap stations do make sense in the long run *IF* they are used. Need to do some math on this...
By the end of the year: As a 60kWh owner in WA state I'm still very happy, but let's see how much use the swappers actually get and what the actual business model turns out to be. My big question is how long do you have to get your original (pre-swap) battery back before you effectively own the new (post-swap) battery.
Model X launch: Full support expected and maybe by this time we'll have swapping in WA state, but likely we'll have travelled to CA and try it out. My expectations are that we can travel with a larger size battery while there and that will be cool. Also, the superchargers might be busy when I pull up and the swapping value might be worth it so there's that
Gen III launch: Full support expected and if swapping is spreading like supercharging would assume that the value to swap will go up.
By the end of the year: As a 60kWh owner in WA state I'm still very happy, but let's see how much use the swappers actually get and what the actual business model turns out to be. My big question is how long do you have to get your original (pre-swap) battery back before you effectively own the new (post-swap) battery.
Model X launch: Full support expected and maybe by this time we'll have swapping in WA state, but likely we'll have travelled to CA and try it out. My expectations are that we can travel with a larger size battery while there and that will be cool. Also, the superchargers might be busy when I pull up and the swapping value might be worth it so there's that
Gen III launch: Full support expected and if swapping is spreading like supercharging would assume that the value to swap will go up.
So, your analysis is this is Tesla trying really hard to capture even more of the elite?
If so, as a customer and investor, I'm even more disappointed.
Yep. You'll just have to wait for Gen 3 for your world domination dreams with the other 90% that don't belong to the upper class (10%).
deonb
Active Member
This is my only concern. That the 60's will cut into the 85's sales because of this option. ESPECIALLY since you can just effectively upgrade your 60 to an 85 now at any time.
But does it matter? Gross margins on the 60 is around $17'500. Gross margin on the 85 is $20'000. If the 60 will perform 4 swaps per year for 8 years, it works out the same. (Remember the 60's has other incentives to swap than the 85's, so it IS a more realistic swap scenario).
K5ING
MegaMiler
K5ING, if you buy the farm, you get the cows
In other words, if other manufacturers license Teslas technology, and use their pack form factor, no reason they couldn't also use the swap stations as well.
True, Mitch, but what if you want to raise sheep, not cows? :tongue:
Those were hypothetical questions intending to spur thought rather than anything I was expecting to get hard answers to. My point was that since the car is designed around the battery pack to begin with, the same pack would have to be used in all of Tesla's cars, and anyone else using their packs. Same mounting points, same connection points, etc. be it a large car, small car, truck, and so on. Wouldn't it kind of limit the design possibilities for future Tesla cars and cars from other manufacturers? Even if the same connection points (mechanical, electrical, cooling, etc) could be used on different sized batteries, it would mean having to stock several different sized batteries at the swap stations.
The fringe case, but a very important fringe case, is holiday weekends. Gen III is rolled out. Getting good traction, selling BMW 3 Series or Audi A4 volumes.
Owner: It's Memorial Day weekend, let's go to Grandma's. It's 300 mile but we can stop at the supercharger. Ah, crap, there's a ton of people waiting for the charger
Spouse/Children: Let's get going, we're going to miss dinner.
Owner: Alright, we'll swap rather than wait.
3 minutes later, the family is back on the road for the same price as a tank of gas. Does this fringe case warrant the expense of the build? If it sells enough additional cars then yes, it most certainly does.
Owner: It's Memorial Day weekend, let's go to Grandma's. It's 300 mile but we can stop at the supercharger. Ah, crap, there's a ton of people waiting for the charger
Spouse/Children: Let's get going, we're going to miss dinner.
Owner: Alright, we'll swap rather than wait.
3 minutes later, the family is back on the road for the same price as a tank of gas. Does this fringe case warrant the expense of the build? If it sells enough additional cars then yes, it most certainly does.
^This is it in a nutshell. Naysayers keep setting up straw men about why EV's aren't suitable for the masses, and Tesla keeps knocking them down, one by one. In the end, there will be a nation of happy consumers driving EV's from a dozen different car makers, and Elon will be living out his three score and ten on Mars.
For a 40 owner, do you it will be "unlocked" if you put in an 85 pack to enjoy the full range of the pack?
- - - Updated - - -
Did Tesla misinformed us again?
I thought one of the FAQ states that you can NOT change / swap batteries with different capacities ...
Hey,
Tried to post my video last night but doesn't look like it posted, said it needed mod approval. Perhaps because I'm a long-time lurker but first time poster.
Forgive the quality, it was just an iPhone but it does include a good chunk of the presentation and both swaps.
Tried to post my video last night but doesn't look like it posted, said it needed mod approval. Perhaps because I'm a long-time lurker but first time poster.
Forgive the quality, it was just an iPhone but it does include a good chunk of the presentation and both swaps.
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I don't really see how the economics of this work for Tesla. If the packs cost $25K, a swap costs $60 of which $50 is profit, an individual pack has to be swapped 500 times to break even. If the packs are kept for an average of 2 days and utilized 50% of the time, that's about 2000 days or about 6 years. Pretty slow payback IMHO.
Are packs swapped between customers or are only Tesla owned packs swapped? If customer packs are merely being stored at these stations and not put into the rotation won't many of these stations run out of room?
Most of the value is in the buzz this announcement has created. Maybe part of the cost was built into the price increase?
Most of the value is in the buzz this announcement has created. Maybe part of the cost was built into the price increase?
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