Tesla battery swap: Post announcement discussion

[deonb]

I'm done transcribing all of the reporter Q/A's. Post #88 on this thread. (Page 9).

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...uncement-discussion/page9?p=368519#post368519

 

[RDoc]

I'm done transcribing all of the reporter Q/A's. Post #88 on this thread. (Page 9).

You definitely deserve a couple of ataboys for that effort, thanks.

 

[fengshui]

The other answer to "Why announce this now?" is that Tesla is probably going to have to get permits, do construction, etc. for these stations starting in the next few months. Once they start building, they can't keep the technology under wraps anymore. Might as well do a big announcement rather than have a bunch of people on this forum speculating what Tesla is doing at their big hole in the ground at Tejon Ranch.

 

[SFOTurtle]

I am happy that the car is designed to make it easy to swap the battery. If only for later on in the next decade when people will want to buy a used Tesla but might want a new battery, specially if the battery tech in 5 or 7 years allows batteries to be cheaper or better.

(BTW, I hope supercharging will become a standard option on all Tesla's.)

But this being said, given that most commutes (afaik) dont even require supercharging, and that the range of Model S is good, and that supercharging is going to be available for those times you go far without taking a plane instead and also need to stop for a bite to eat on your way anyway, I dont understand how the need for battery swapping is that big as to justify all this? And, maybe I am overly optimistic, but in 10 years, the range of cars, the charging speed, may be even greater, making a battery swapping infrastructure even less needed for the purpose of driving around (as opposed to service or replacement for new battery with more range/new tech/faster recharge capacity). Is it just me?

No, not just you. I'm guessing your point of view is the majority, if not vast majority. I just don't understand the investment in this at this stage with so much else on the agenda. Every dollar spent on this and not spent on building out the SCs is a waste in my opinion.

 

[brianman]

But you didn't buy your car believing you'd have swap capabilities ... so this is a new option.

Disagree on this one. I believed we'd have the option, but I didn't think I'd use it. About the same spot I am after last night.

 

[deonb]

No, not just you. I'm guessing your point of view is the majority, if not vast majority. I just don't understand the investment in this at this stage with so much else on the agenda. Every dollar spent on this and not spent on building out the SCs is a waste in my opinion.

Why spend any money on developing the Model X? Why spend money developing the Gen III? Why spend money for having ranger service? Why spend money to have sales offices in malls when they have a web site?

Every dollar spent on research, service and sales, and not spent on building out the SCs is a waste.

 

[SFOTurtle]

You are forgetting that the 60s do not come with supercharging. I chose not to pay the $2000 for it, since when I travel, I fly. I did ask about using the supercharger once for a road trip and paying for it, and the answer is no. This would allow me to take the rare road trip, and at $99, I could take 2000 swaps before it cost the same as buying the supercharger option. If it cost less, even better.

I think you mean 200 swaps and not 2000. You're analysis also assumes that your road trip is only 300 miles or so one way, so that you would not make any other stops at SCs. If you're traveling farther than than, you're not going to be able to use other SCs. In short, your road trip is a very short road trip with this car unless you have access to SCs or you are content with stopping for long periods of time to charge your swapped battery, and so then you're spending a lot less time? I plan to take advantage of the SCs at least ten times a year with my 60 even for just short day trips to Monterey or perhaps Napa/Sonoma if one is outfitted up there eventually. That alone made it worthwhile to purchase the option since it's free for life. But on the one or possibly two longer road trips to SoCal or now even possibly the Northwest, this swapping thing doesn't made one bit of sense unless Tesla is going to give me the option to upgrade to an 85.

 

[deonb]

I think you mean 200 swaps and not 2000.

Still not. It's 20.

 

[brianman]

Nor do I regard battery pack swap as a particularly novel concept

I'm glad he's finally using the word 'novel' here instead of 'brilliant'. It's the "patentable, clever" aspect of the word "brilliant" that he originally intended. More specifically "not novel" vs. "not brilliant" mean somewhat different things, and I believe he always meant the former.

- - - Updated - - -

Now that's interesting. It implies that mobile in-the-field pack swaps will be possible.

I don't think he really means mobile swaps. I think he means something more like "we'll ship it to the nearest TS (Tesla Station) or TSC (Tesla Service Center) and leverage ranger service to get your vehicle to/from that location if necessary."

 

[Wattson]

I want to preface my comments with I'm an avid Tesla advocate, a Model S owner, an excited Supercharger user (come on Normal, IL), and a detailed process analyzer (not by trade, just personally).

My two cents:
The comparison to an Audi A8 is not as advertised. The Audi took in about 23.2 gallons of gasoline. It is capable of an average of 25 MPG. That means the car took on 580 miles of range in 4 minutes. That means it took in 145 miles of range a minute.
-It took Model S 1.5 minutes to get 265 miles of range or 176 miles of range per minute.
-So, the video would have you believe the Model S battery swap is 160% faster than an Audi A8 (1.5 minutes versus 4 minutes) based on time to fill one "tank". But the tanks aren't equivalent. When you compare miles of range added per minute Model S is only 21% faster.
-With the need for the Model S to stop 2.19 times to make an Audi A8's range in one fill up, we can say that any speed gains made by battery swap being faster than gasoline fill ups are lost by the extra time it takes you to get on and off the freeway for extra fill ups. Timing is probably all equal when you add the human factor to pull off the highway in either car for rest breaks.

In summary, I think expectations of battery swapping being definitely faster than gasoline fill ups needs to be tempered. I believe they're equivalent at this point. Without a doubt, I think battery swapping from Tesla helps answer doubters questions about Model S being a viable product just like Elon hoped.

Cheers,
David

 

[Stoneymonster]

-So, the video would have you believe the Model S battery swap is 160% faster than an Audi A8 (1.5 minutes versus 4 minutes) based on time to fill one "tank". But the tanks aren't equivalent. When you compare miles of range added per minute Model S is only 21% faster.

Agreed, but keep in mind: as battery capacity increases, the swap time is fixed. A bigger gas tank always takes longer. Though one could argue, as MPG increases, fill time is fixed.

 

[deonb]

I want to preface my comments with I'm an avid Tesla advocate, a Model S owner, an excited Supercharger user (come on Normal, IL), and a detailed process analyzer (not by trade, just personally).

My two cents:
The comparison to an Audi A8 is not as advertised. The Audi took in about 23.2 gallons of gasoline. It is capable of an average of 25 MPG. That means the car took on 580 miles of range in 4 minutes. That means it took in 145 miles of range a minute.
-It took Model S 1.5 minutes to get 265 miles of range or 176 miles of range per minute.
-So, the video would have you believe the Model S battery swap is 160% faster than an Audi A8 (1.5 minutes versus 4 minutes) based on time to fill one "tank". But the tanks aren't equivalent. When you compare miles of range added per minute Model S is only 21% faster.
-With the need for the Model S to stop 2.19 times to make an Audi A8's range in one fill up, we can say that any speed gains made by battery swap being faster than gasoline fill ups are lost by the extra time it takes you to get on and off the freeway for extra fill ups. Timing is probably all equal when you add the human factor to pull off the highway in either car for rest breaks.

In summary, I think expectations of battery swapping being definitely faster than gasoline fill ups needs to be tempered. I believe they're equivalent at this point. Without a doubt, I think battery swapping from Tesla helps answer doubters questions about Model S being a viable product just like Elon hoped.

Cheers,
David

Elon did kind'a address it:

Q: In the video, how many gallons was that tank? Seems like that was larger than the 15 gallon reference that you're using.
Elon: Yeah, in that case it was a 20 gallon tank. So we could have done (I think it was around 20 gallons, not sure the exact number but somewhere in that order). But for the pricing, we were going to do the pricing at 20 gallons, but I thought let's knock it down a bit and be conservative in that regard, and we knocked it down 25% and we'll set the pricing at 15.


So looks like when they shot the video they were doing it on a per-cost basis and based it on how long it will take to fill 20 gallons, since they were going to charge for 20 gallons.

Either way, the first swap was almost done by the time the gasoline started flowing. I think you could have filled 2 gallons and the swap would have been faster due to the act of having to exit/enter the car and dealing with the pump.

 

[scriptacus]

Correct me if my math is wrong, but this means the Model S gets ~17.5 miles per gallon (or worse) when it comes to the price of "gas"? (265 / 15, and it was going to be ~13MPG originally at 265 / 20). That doesn't make a particularly compelling argument when talking to a current ICE owner. Yes, it could be free if you Supercharge, but I think a lot of people have trouble wrapping their heads around the idea of waiting around for 20-60 minutes to fill up.

I like the tech and what it enables, but I was definitely underwhelmed when he said (at the event) that it would cost "the same as the price of gas". Considering the price premium on electric cars right now statements like this make it easy for ICE drivers, the majority of which are ignorant to the many benefits of EVs, to dismiss them as an overpriced fad that is no better than what they have. I know that isn't the reality, but perception matters more. It seems that for people to "get" EVs they need entirely to much education on the subject.

 

[Stoneymonster]

Correct me if my math is wrong, but this means the Model S gets ~17.5 miles per gallon (or worse) when it comes to the price of "gas"? (265 / 15, and it was going to be ~13MPG originally at 265 / 20). That doesn't make a particularly compelling argument when talking to a current ICE owner. Yes, it could be free if you Supercharge, but I think a lot of people have trouble wrapping their heads around the idea of waiting around for 20-60 minutes to fill up.

I like the tech and what it enables, but I was definitely underwhelmed when he said (at the event) that it would cost "the same as the price of gas". Considering the price premium on electric cars right now statements like this make it easy for ICE drivers, the majority of which are ignorant to the many benefits of EVs, to dismiss them as an overpriced fad that is no better than what they have. I know that isn't the reality, but perception matters more. It seems that for people to "get" EVs they need entirely to much education on the subject.

But realistically, you'd only need to do this a few times a year! The rest you'd be "fueling" off cheap (relatively) home power or free superchargers. Amortized out over the lifetime of the car it's nothing. Compare that to being *required* to pay this much a few times a month for an ICE.

I agree, education is difficult. At some point Tesla is just butting up against innumeracy and there's not much that can be done about that. If people think "gosh, I need to pay $80 dollars every week to pack swap" that's just nuts and the message has been garbled. Tesla doesn't need to reach all of those people though to be a success.

 

[deonb]

Tesla always uses 20mpg when it comes to calculating the equivalent gasoline mileage cost for a Model S:

If you then take the ideal range, with a range charge, you'll get: 300 miles / 20 mpg = 15 gallons.

It's Tesla math, but it's borderline believable math.

If someone is at the level of EV misunderstanding that they think that every "charge" performed is going to be at some battery swapper location 50 miles out of town, they won't know the difference between EPA or Ideal, nor Range vs. Standard charge either.

 

[NigelM]

I'll transcribe it. Thanks!

Great job. Round of applause from everyone! :smile:

 

[IceWendigo]

"the idea of waiting around for 20-60 minutes to fill up"

People compare Tesla Model S exceptional case road-trip-charging with the regular/weekly/common driving filling up at the gas station.

The point many people appear to miss, is that most Tesla Model S owners will almost NEVER use the battery swapping, in fact you dont even waste the weekly "few minutes" it takes to "fill up" at the gas station because for most people the overwhelming majority of the time you have filled up while you were sleeping and get going with what you need without having to go to a gas station or e-station. The range anxiety may have been hyped for the Leaf and other EVs with bare bone commute range but that is not the case with Model S which is (among other reasons) why it changes everything. In my case I might need a supercharging twice a year, for a trip I would not mind stopping for lunch anyway.

 

[Vexar]

Okay, I read through every post so far, and has no one else noticed that the Audi they used consumed over 22 gallons of gasoline? What's up with that? The A6 holds 19.8 gallons of gasoline (2013). Is this the thermal expansion (gas reservoir under black top pavement on a hot, sunny day) issue? Is is really 10% volume difference? Is it a different Audi?

I've had friends and passers-by freak out just with the door handle extension. I have no idea how they could react any more to seeing a robotic parts swap like this.

 

[bollar]

Okay, I read through every post so far, and has no one else noticed that the Audi they used consumed over 22 gallons of gasoline? What's up with that? The A6 holds 19.8 gallons of gasoline (2013). Is this the thermal expansion (gas reservoir under black top pavement on a hot, sunny day) issue? Is is really 10% volume difference? Is it a different Audi?

I've had friends and passers-by freak out just with the door handle extension. I have no idea how they could react any more to seeing a robotic parts swap like this.

It was an A8. 23.8 gallons or so depending on the year.

 

[ckessel]

I was busy last night and didn't see the swap video until this morning. I haven't read all this thread , but I did see the Q&A posted. While it's cool it's so fast on a technical level, I'm really underwhelmed. I went in asking "How does this not compete with the Superchargers? This has to be more than a 'pay for for fast refueling for impatient rich people.'"

Looks like the answer was, yea, this is fast charging for impatient people that put a premium price tag on time. They're directly competing with the super chargers, even placed in the same locations. Long distance trips are already a rarity. Tesla is building out 2 competing solutions for the same rare travel purpose.

I get a lot of mix messages out of this:
- Superchargers are great! The time isn't that far off from the real time spent on a typical gas station visit!
- We've got to address concerns superchargers are slow, so now we have battery swapping.
- Electricity is much cheaper than gas, huge TCO impact, super chargers are free!
- Battery swap is on par with the cost of 15 gallons of gas (near as I can tell from the Q&A posted).

As a customer, I'm disappointed. As an investor, I'd much rather Tesla scrapped swapping and put the money into faster Supercharger build out and G3.