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Tesla BEV Competition Developments
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Yes that is an article from January 2014 and has been discussed. Search TMC for "Pajun" and you will find this thread Porsche pajun / 717 EV (rumor)
The Porsche Pajun is still just a rumor.
A few tidbits from Cook about Apple-Car plans-
asked in a new Forbes interview
Exclusive Q&A: Apple CEO Tim Cook - Fortune
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Q- Indeed. You’ve talked generally about autos, but you haven’t commented on Apple’s widely reported car project. Wikipedia has a long list of prominent auto industry people who have joined Apple. Why not take this opportunity to say, “You know what? It’s basically all there, and this is why we’re doing it”?
A- Yeah, I’m probably not going to do that. The great thing about being here is we’re curious people. We explore technologies, and we explore products. And we’re always thinking about ways that Apple can make great products that people love, that help them in some way. And we don’t go into very many categories, as you know. We edit very much. We talk about a lot of things and do fewer. We debate many things and do a lot fewer.
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....
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Q- Do you foresee a day when a manufacturer would make an automobile on a contract basis for someone else?
A- I think it does exist today, but I don’t think it’s the model for the [auto] industry. It’s not how it was born. That industry was born much like the industry that we’re in, the electronics industry: People began doing their own manufacturing, and then over time it became clear that specializing would probably be a better way to go from the supply-chain point of view. And so most companies begin to go in that way, at different levels and maybe in different ways.
Q- And so can you envision it for automobiles?
A- Yeah, I could. Sure. I don’t think that there’s a fundamental reason why that couldn’t be done.
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asked in a new Forbes interview
Exclusive Q&A: Apple CEO Tim Cook - Fortune
-----"
Q- Indeed. You’ve talked generally about autos, but you haven’t commented on Apple’s widely reported car project. Wikipedia has a long list of prominent auto industry people who have joined Apple. Why not take this opportunity to say, “You know what? It’s basically all there, and this is why we’re doing it”?
A- Yeah, I’m probably not going to do that. The great thing about being here is we’re curious people. We explore technologies, and we explore products. And we’re always thinking about ways that Apple can make great products that people love, that help them in some way. And we don’t go into very many categories, as you know. We edit very much. We talk about a lot of things and do fewer. We debate many things and do a lot fewer.
------"
....
-----"
Q- Do you foresee a day when a manufacturer would make an automobile on a contract basis for someone else?
A- I think it does exist today, but I don’t think it’s the model for the [auto] industry. It’s not how it was born. That industry was born much like the industry that we’re in, the electronics industry: People began doing their own manufacturing, and then over time it became clear that specializing would probably be a better way to go from the supply-chain point of view. And so most companies begin to go in that way, at different levels and maybe in different ways.
Q- And so can you envision it for automobiles?
A- Yeah, I could. Sure. I don’t think that there’s a fundamental reason why that couldn’t be done.
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Thanks, interesting. But he is doing a good job at not revealing anything! Makes it sound as if it was business as usual hiring a few hundred engineers to try something out and then drop it. But I guess Apple is just big enough and has enough cash to do just that if they´re not convinced.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Daimler declines to invest in battery cell production
FRANKFURT -- Burned by past experience, Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche ruled out investing in battery cell production for electric cars with other German premium brands for at least another few years citing a massive overcapacity in the market that has turned cells into a commodity.
"The dumbest thing we could do is to add to that overcapacity," Zetsche said earlier this month in Stuttgart.
"Contrary to the expectation four or six years ago when everyone thought that the cells would be a rarity that could even be used as a tool of industrial policy, there is de facto a massive overcapacity in the market today and cells have become a commodity," he said.
The idea of joint production became politically sensitive in Germany after Economics Minister Sigmar Gabriel said in November that Tesla founder Elon Musk had approached the government to discuss state subsidies for building a battery plant in the country.
Supporters, including domestic labor unions, have argued that a "German Battery, Inc." could achieve the necessary scale effects in cell production to make electric cars more affordable while simultaneously ensuring that strategically important expertise remains in the country’s vaunted automotive cluster.
http://www.autonews.com/article/201...declines-to-invest-in-battery-cell-production
Classic innovators dilemma response from an incumbent.
Daimler Benz wants to wait til Tesla has a stranglehold on a significant and growing BEV market before getting serious about a new technology.
You don't need many batteries for short range Smart Cars.
If Daimler Benz decided to sell 300 mile range S Class and E Class cars then it would need a lot more batteries.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
So Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche prefers to be burned by future experience instead. Too bad; it's going to be at a higher temperature.
colettimj
Member
The legacy automakers sound just like bricks-and-mortar retailers during Amazon's ascendance.
They also fail to realize that designing a car to match the 3 misses on at least two counts:
1. Where do I (an owner) charge it when I want to drive beyond its range?
2. Where do I (the manufacturer) get batteries if I actually want to sell it in volume?
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
They think a breakthrough leading to a cheap battery with double the energy density is around the corner, and they don't want to bet the farm on the current state of the art. They think Tesla will be left holding the bag, while they (the incumbents) will rush to convert all their manufacturing in short order to electrics once that mythical technology is available. They think they will be able to scale fast because they have the money to invest in a sure thing (but it must really be a sure thing).
They think that is the only way for them to switch to electrics: in a sudden, sweeping transformation (a few years at the most). They are afraid to invest in the meantime because they can't get to profitable volume quickly with today's electric tech. Any serious push into EVs now, without the guaranteed ability to swim all the way to the other side, would cannibalize their ICE money-makers, killing the company.
And I think they are right. They are screwed, unless that miracle breakthrough battery materializes.
Actually BMW is seriously investing in battery development. (And I think the others do too.)
BMW Pursues Battery Research at MIT - YouTube
They haven't got building an own battery plant yet, since it wouldn't be worth the money for them (yet). They're making only a "few" EVs, and all of them are just small range BEVs and PHEV. They only need roughly 1/10 as much battery than Tesla needs. For them it's like buying a cow for a glass of milk at the moment.
BMW Pursues Battery Research at MIT - YouTube
They haven't got building an own battery plant yet, since it wouldn't be worth the money for them (yet). They're making only a "few" EVs, and all of them are just small range BEVs and PHEV. They only need roughly 1/10 as much battery than Tesla needs. For them it's like buying a cow for a glass of milk at the moment.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I am talking about investment in battery production at scale, not research or small-scale production. That's what the article is about.
Krugerrand
Meow
Right. So not serious yet. Let us know when they buy/breed the herd of cows. :wink:
I recently saw this thing somewhere, probably on TMC? - Here’s How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis - What I do not understand about this whole thing is why the growth will continue like in the chart in the article. If lets say by 2022 ICE and EV reach cost parity, beyond road warriors, the only people who would buy an ICE would be morons. If anything car sales would crater to nothing as everyone waits for EVs to be built in volume. Why would people still continue to buy gas cars?
I know, it wasn't addressed to you. Just reading the comments it feels many people here think the other major automakers are just sitting on their ass and not doing anything in the EV segment. And this article is suggesting the same.
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The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I don't think they're sitting on their ass, I think they are in a real bind. If all their current research doesn't produce a battery significantly better than Tesla's, one which they can deploy quickly at scale, it will be very difficult for them to transition away from ICE. I am one of those believing there are bankruptcies in the future of some car manufacturers, and it won't be Tesla.
Electric cars aren't the biggest threat today to the oil industry. It's CAFE in the USA and similar programs in other countries. New cars are using less oil each year. This is already having a big effect on gasoline sales, and will progressively get worse for the oil companies way before EV's hit 5% of the sales. Gasoline use will drop by mandate roughly 30% by the time EV's hit 5% of the market.
I think EVs will accelerate their sales not for economic reasons, but functional reasons. They are technologically superior drivetrains. Quieter, smoother, better throttle response, refilling while you sleep, all factor into making the EV a premium driver's car. As the EV prices fall, more people will be able to afford the "luxury" of a superior EV drivetrain.
The wild card in the deck is government intervention though. That can change EV sales more than technology can.
I think EVs will accelerate their sales not for economic reasons, but functional reasons. They are technologically superior drivetrains. Quieter, smoother, better throttle response, refilling while you sleep, all factor into making the EV a premium driver's car. As the EV prices fall, more people will be able to afford the "luxury" of a superior EV drivetrain.
The wild card in the deck is government intervention though. That can change EV sales more than technology can.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Tesla is behaving like one of the biggest corporations in the world by grinding out small annual gains in the supplier network for battery production.
The legacy automakers are behaving like startups investing in moonshot battery designs hoping one of them actually works.
Smart money goes to the people that are working at making consistent gains not the ones buying lottery tickets.
The legacy automakers are behaving like startups investing in moonshot battery designs hoping one of them actually works.
Smart money goes to the people that are working at making consistent gains not the ones buying lottery tickets.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I thought we were talking about the threats to the traditional car manufacturers, not the oil industry.
It was a response to the posted article that claims EV's will someday create an oil crisis.
They are serious about EVs (well... some of them at least), but they are not in the same shoes like Tesla. They cannot stop making ICE cars one day and get making EVs on the other. They have built a reputation in the recent decades, they have a strong customer base (millions of people), and these people are not like us. Most of the people still have doubts about EVs. So these manufacturers have an other mission: to convince these skeptics (it's Tesla's mission too, but the others have a greater role in it, IMO). And e.g. the PHEVs can serve this transition very well. With their full EV mode they can show bright side of electric driving without the fear of giving up the familiar things.
And answering your question:
They will "breed a herd" when they can sell hundreds of thousands of EVs yearly.
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