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Tesla causing drop in gas prices

Discussion in 'Electric Vehicles' started by 4sevens.com, May 30, 2013.

  1. drees

    drees Active Member

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    True - most people don't realize that most retail products are marked up 100-500% over their manufacturing cost. And public charging is a retail product, while charging at home is not. The best analogy is the cost of buying a soda at a restaurant ($2) compared to drinking a glass of it at home from a 2l bottle ($0.25).
     
  2. cwerdna

    cwerdna Member

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    I agree. The effect of Teslas is nowhere near enough to move the needle.

    Just look at US figures at 2012 Year End United States Auto Sales Brand Rankings - GOOD CAR BAD CAR, for example. IIRC, Tesla's goal was 20K units/year and they did reach the production rate to achieve that.

    Also look at December 2012 Top 30 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - GOOD CAR BAD CAR and 2012 Year End Top 30 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - GOOD CAR BAD CAR.

    OP should also look at plug-in vehicle take rate at April 2013 Dashboard - HybridCars.com and January 2013 Dashboard - HybridCars.com. (Tesla's #s are estimates since they don't release monthly sales numbers, unlike all the other major (and many not-so-major) automakers.

    BTW, I've heard arguments that in terms of oil, the US would be better off strategically using up everyone else's oil first before significantly tapping into our own.
     
  3. Adm

    Adm Active Member

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    I also agree that Tesla won't be able to move gas prices, but there will be a trend for less gas consumption. Apart from a 20k/yr Model S'ses, the competition is reacting as well. In Europe you can buy a 4!!!! cylinder MB S-class, a hybrid S-class and a plug-in S-class will follow soon. Porsche, BMW and Audi have hybrides for their top models as well. Fuel consumption is going down for ICE's as well to prevent the gap between EV's and ICE driven cars to be big enough for people to make the switch.
    Gas stations in heavy EV concentrated areas may feel the pain already. Dropping sales will force some gas stations out of business and will make the trip to the gas station an even bigger pain at the rear end as they will be further apart. This will be some time in the future, but I don't think it's a trend that can be stopped.
     
  4. Zythryn

    Zythryn MS 70D, MX 90D

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    I agree that Tesla is helping to accelerate the trend. Frankly, I give them 80% credit for restarting the EV trend.
    As they showed, and are showing what incredible things EVs can be!

    But the tend is nowhere near affecting gas stations yet. The recession had a much bigger impact.

    Two reasons...
    First, the plugin market has not grown faster than the overall growth in the car market (it will, but hasn't yet).

    Second, gas stations make almost no money, or even loose money on gasoline sales. At least in the USA.
     
  5. montgom626

    montgom626 Active Member

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    Tesla has no effect on gas prices.
     
  6. tdelta1000

    tdelta1000 Active Member

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    We will never $2.95/gallon again much less $1.50/gallon.
     
  7. bollar

    bollar Disgruntled Member

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    Come join us here in Texas!

    2.93 in Pharr.

    Now, the downside is that you need to be in Pharr. It's 3.20 in more urban parts of Texas.
     
  8. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    This metric isn't very useful IMO. Delivery, sales force, dealing with returns, taxes, regulations, etc. can dwarf the manufacturing cost anyway.
     
  9. cwerdna

    cwerdna Member

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    I wouldn't be so sure of that... Even though we're in/near "the summer driving season", AAA Fuel Gauge Report, shows some states averaging $3.2n/gallon.

    It's nowhere near that low in California though. Seeing $2.95/gal again in California is less likely...
     
  10. ggies07

    ggies07 Active Member

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    3.33 in the metroplex
     
  11. cwerdna

    cwerdna Member

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    Heh. On this I confirmed it via Rio Grande Valley Gas Prices - Find Cheap Gas Prices in Texas
    . And there are two Sam's Clubs that have it for $2.98 and $2.99/gal. That is so cheap compared to the SF Bay Area.

    Minimum at see at San Jose Gas Prices - Find Cheap Gas Prices in California
    is $3.69 (and it's not worth it for me to journey out there to fill my Prius).
     
  12. bollar

    bollar Disgruntled Member

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    Not to derail the OP's point, but on this side of the Metroplex, there are at least a couple places (Sam's Club, QuikTrip) advertising $3.20. Maybe if the winds blow in the right direction, we'll see some sub $3.00 gas in a few months.
     
  13. Zapped

    Zapped Model S - PURE EV

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  14. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    China is already the biggest car market in the world - has been for 5 years. China will overtake the US in oil consumption in about 7 years.
    The growth in oil consumption outside the US will have a far bigger effect on prices than anything that happens in the US.
    And Tesla is about 100x too small to really affect oil prices in the US.
     
  15. VirtualE

    VirtualE Member

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    There is not enough gasoline for the demand...if USA moves to EV, we will see less consumption in the USA, though the GAS consumption will be in other countries, that don't have the EV infrastructure. Though the positive note is that we will stop paying and worrying about GAS producing nations changing the political landscape.
     
  16. cwerdna

    cwerdna Member

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    Yep. That's the scary part. China has growing middle class (I'd heard 300 million people many times before) w/more and more able to afford cars. 300 million is almost the population of the entire US. China has ~1.3 billion people and India ~1.2 billion (also w/a growing middle class).

    I don't have an EV yet but at least drive an efficient ICEV (a Prius). I just wish that more folks in the US would look at the big picture instead of buying guzzler battering ram of death class SUVs, almost always driven solo or w/minimal passengers and cargo. (If you come to my part of the Bay Area, you see it all the time. :()
     
  17. PhilBa

    PhilBa Active Member

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    +1 on Tesla having zero impact on gas prices.

    As to general trends of lower gas consumption. Fleet economy targets mean low unit volume of gas consumption. You can see this effect kicking in as states grapple with falling gas tax revenues. At least in non-forward thinking states like mine that levy tax on volume of gas sold, not on cost of gas sold.

    However, decreasing volume will not result in lower costs as refiners will simply move production to other areas to maintain an approximate balance between consumption and production. Conspiracists say they keep consumption ahead of production but I'm not up for that argument (it could be true, I just don't care). In addition, the US is becoming a next exporter of petroleum products so as the domestic prices drop, they will export more and maintain the approximate balance of domestic production and comsumption. That will keep the pricing about where it is now, +/- 20%.

    - - - Updated - - -

    You see that in suburban Seattle all the time. I have a Prius, too, and love to exclaim loudly at the gas station when a GBRoDSUV is nearby "$21?!!" in a disgusted voice. Frequently elicits a glare. Sigh, gather your small pleasures while you may...
     
  18. cwerdna

    cwerdna Member

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    I lived in the Seattle area for awhile, mostly in the Eastside. I last was there from late 09 until mid-2011. IMHO, the battering ram of death % SUV is a lot worse in my part of the Bay Area than in the Eastside.
     
  19. Robert1969

    Robert1969 Member

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    There could be huge fall out from the EV. This could be as disruptive as the industrial revolution to national and global politics. If Elon Musk is right that in ten years half the cars on the road will be EVs, then oil prices will drop significantly. Would Dubai of 2023 be Detroit of 2013? If Twitter can help along the Arab Spring, what happens to the OPEC nations that's been living it up and keeping the masses at bay with oil sales? What happens to Iran's ability to keep the "Green Revolution" at bay? How many more people will challenge the status quo and willing to risk their lives to do so?

    What happens to the energy states of Texas, North Dakota, and Louisiana, Alaska? Will reactionary politics finally fail in these areas?

    And while a plummet in gas prices may temporarily keep the ICE vehicle in demand a bit longer, once you reach that critical mass with the EV, there's no turning back. I think in 20 years from now the ICE vehicle will look like the horse and buggy and compared to the EV.

    There will be good, bad, amazing, and frightening things that will occur as a result of EV adoption by the public. This is the most disruptive technology EVER when you think about the economic and political fall out it will have. Some things will get much better, some will get worse. Those societies able to adapt will thrive. Those who cling to hope of oil's return will look like Detroit of 2013 -- or worse. Oil is HUGE in the economy and in global politics. Retracting from oil will bring a lot of rapid and scary change, great turmoil, and a new social revolution. Every such disruptive technology has done so, and this will make the computer/internet revolution look like a mild speed bump by comparison. It's exhilarating to think of it.
     
  20. Merrill

    Merrill Active Member

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    I would like to get input from everyone on the various states thinking about a tax on EV's due to less gas being sold and not enough gas tax for road repair. I think it's a crock of you know what. First of all in California the road are in the worst state of repair, so where is all that money going, everyone and there brother gets a piece of the pie. If you truly want to get off fossil fuel and lower your carbon footprint why would you not be promoting EV's. The use of the gas tax for road repair is like having a CD player in your car. If you want to tax all EV's for lack of buying gas, then you should give a carbon tax rebate to those same cars. I hate to break the news to you, but even if the demand for gas goes down, which it has, gas prices will not because we are selling the gas out of this country for more money. So we know that we are producing more gas than we ever have and the prices stay artificially high because the more we have the more we sell overseas. So now the powers that have the money want to find a way to make up for there loss of revenue to repair the roads.
     

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