Tesla Compact Hatch Coming?

[T3SLAROD]

Hmmmmmmm

A new Tesla model or a prank? New prototype spotted is confusing us

A new prototype vehicle has been spotted over the last few days, and it clearly has some Tesla design features....

electrek.co

 

[Buckminster]

Thread above and below:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630010486371524617

 

[MC3OZ]

I am a bit sceptical about this.

I think Pierre's calculations are probably pretty accurate but they are not a 50% cost reduction on the current Model 3.

I do think a 37% cost reduction on Model 3 Highland is probably 50% of the build cost of a current Model 3.

A dedicated Robotaxi doesn't need to be in this compact form factor.

So I think as Gen3 as "Robotaxi and others", multiple vehicles.

If a single new car is revealed on Investor Day, IMO that is most likely to be the Robotaxi.

Seems to me like there are multiple possibilities:-

1. Testa outlines the Gen3 architecture, but does not detail specific vehicle designs.
2. In addition to 1, Tesla sketches out the number of Gen3 vehicles that will be built and the purpose of each vehicle.
3. In addition to 2, Tesla reveals a single Gen3 vehicle.
4. In addition to 2, Tesla reveals multiple Gen3 vehicles

I think 4. is very unlikely but we haven't been given a strong indication from Tesla that a Gen3 vehicle will be revealed.

IMO the compact hatch will be built ASAP, I'm just not sure it will be revealed on Investor Day.

Model 3 Highland will be revealed, and we might get more information on Cybertruck and the 4680 ramp in addition to Master plan part 3.

Already that is a lot of information to pack into one event.

There is nothing wrong with Tesla having a dedicated reveal event for one or more Gen3 vehicles later this year. if Tesla are doing that, then they may provide and indication that reveal is coming on Investor Day.

When a car is shipping in volume has very little to do with when it is revealed, ideally Tesla will want to compress that time gap down to the shortest timeframe possible. It is very likely that these Gen3 car require new factories, but there is an outside chance that Model 3/Y Highland frees up enough space for one Gen3 model at some existing factories.

 

[MC3OZ]

The other speculation I have seen is that not revealing a compact car will drive down the share price.

Why would anyone doubt the ability of Tesla to make a compact car?

It is true that if the car isn't revealed it is perhaps a bit more opportunity for competitors like BYD to tap the entry level market.

Very few remember that the GM Bolt beat the Model 3 to market. so getting the product right is just as important as being first to ship a car in that price range.

Gen3 should give us confidence that Tesla can design and ramp production of new models faster, in less space with less capex,
So perhaps a more traditional 2-3 years from "pencils down" to volume production, is now more like 18 months?
If cars are easier to build with fewer parts and fewer steps, that also means they are easier to design and the production ramp can be faster.

If simplicity can be achieved, it has many virtues.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It is true that if the car isn't revealed it is perhaps a bit more opportunity for competitors like BYD to tap the entry level market.

Model 2 isn't aimed at BYD, it's aimed at Corolla, which currently sells for U$20K. If Tesla can get the BOM/COGS down to $17.5 (half of the current cost to build Model 3), then they sell it for $27.5K USD. That's $10K profit per vehicle (same as the S3XY average gross margin), but it goes to the U.S. consumer for $20K after the IRA instant rebate starting Jan 1, 2024. That's the same purchase price as a Corolla, but w. half the operating expense, and twice the servive life. Who even buys a Corolla in such a scenario?

Each million deliveries of Model 2 in the U.S. adds about $10B to Tesla's domestic gross margins. I think U.S. demand for Model 2 (and it's 'Crossover' cousin) will be over 2 million per year, so call it $20B extra profit. And that's BEFORE any SAAS/subscription revenue such as FSD, infotainment and connectivity, and paid charging. Tesla needs to spool this up, and quick!

 

[khyros]

Model 2 isn't aimed at BYD, it's aimed at Corolla, which currently sells for U$20K. If Tesla can get the BOM/COGS down to $17.5 (half of the current cost to build Model 3), then they sell it for $27.5K USD. That's $10K profit per vehicle (same as the S3XY average gross margin), but it goes to the U.S. consumer for $20K after the IRA instant rebate starting Jan 1, 2024. That's the same purchase price as a Corolla, but w. half the operating expense, and twice the servive life. Who even buys a Corolla in such a scenario?

Each million deliveries of Model 2 in the U.S. adds about $10B to Tesla's domestic gross margins. I think U.S. demand for Model 2 (and it's 'Crossover' cousin) will be over 2 million per year, so call it $20B extra profit. And that's BEFORE any SAAS/subscription revenue such as FSD, infotainment and connectivity, and paid charging. Tesla needs to spool this up, and quick!

I think you might be right but the big winner for Model 2 will be Europe. It will sell like hot cakes in the EU if they make a smaller hatch version of a model 3. Something between a Mini Cooper and a VW Golf

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think you might be right but the big winner for Model 2 will be Europe. It will sell like hot cakes in the EU if they make a smaller hatch version of a model 3. Something between a Mini Cooper and a VW Golf

I know, right? My family owned a Golf GTI in the mid-seventies. That's the car I learned to drive on. It's always been my favorite type of car, like an arrogant mutt lifting it's leg to pee! Luv the Hot Hatch!

Cheers!

 

[T3SLAROD]

Never mind Tesla, maybe try a full wagon. The Hatchback is VW’s

 

[Buckminster]

Tesla teases its next car with new image, says it's already being built

 

[T3SLAROD]

I hope this is it. It’s most likely a Model 3 with a Hatch/SR Battery and I’m ok with that.

 

[Buckminster]

Breaking News!

Isaacson leaks that the next gen Teslas will have Cyber styling (both $25k car and Robotaxi)!

Scoop: Inside Tesla's decision to build a $25,000 "global car" — Axios

Elon Musk was so obsessed with robotaxis that he repeatedly vetoed his own plan to build a $25,000 electric car in favor of them — until skeptical Tesla executives persuaded him to hedge his bet, Musk biographer Walter Isaacson tells Axios.

apple.news

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1700402624191725803

 

[Katic1972]

I’m in if the M2 ever gets launched in the UK. That said if USS are not included I’d maybe have to consider that issue some more.

Will be moving on my M3LR as I plan to retire next year the M2 would be perfect. I reckon though if it does happen we won’t see it until 26 at the earliest.

 

[MD-2000]

Hey everyone,

here is my recent render of the Tesla Q, a $25k compact hatchback-styled car inspired by M3 / MY design.

What do you think?

Not bad, but I wonder how you get in the back doors?
I would prefer the same configuaration as my 1990 Civic hatchback, 2-door; but then, they'd have to make a different driver seat that folds forward.
I don't like the tease pic linked, either the vehicle is too long or there's no back seat headroom. (Hence the squarer hatchback as my preferred look)
I agree with previous post, the front is too high - I imagine them using the same design/slope as the 3 and Y. (Unless they're going for a lot more frunk).

Apparently latest news is that a mini-Y is the next thing they'll build.

FSD is probably not a bad idea - after all, what hardware do they drop to eliminate FSD? How much does it save them? You still need the cameras, presumably you'd still have a form of autopilot or adaptive cruise so you'd need steering control and braking (which are automated anyway), so does it make sense (i.e. save that much money) to put in a smaller, simpler computer - you'll still have the controls - screen and app - that users want, so you still need decent coputing power. That is, it would still be a Tesla in all senses of the vehicle's abilities. So install the big-enough computer and make FSD an option (buy or monthly lease). Not everyone who buys a smaller car wants the bare minimum. the base price woul simply be "without FSD".

 

[Katic1972]

Wish this was due out now I’d swap over.

 

[T3SLAROD]

I’m really hoping this Model 2 is a proper hatchback, with the Performance being roughly $40k equivalent to a Model 3 DM.

 

[xxxotic]

I hate that the parcel tray behind the rear seats in the model 3 only lets you put items in that are about 2 ft tall. Bought a microwave and I could barely get it in the back seats to get it home. And it's a pain trying to get my bike in the back. I don't like the model 3 because it's a SUV and is too big.
Would love a small two-door hatchback. Hate having to borrow my neighbor's truck every time I need to buy something large like a pressure washer, lawn mower, tv or other item that comes in a large box.

 

[Earl]

I hate that the parcel tray behind the rear seats in the model 3 only lets you put items in that are about 2 ft tall. Bought a microwave and I could barely get it in the back seats to get it home. And it's a pain trying to get my bike in the back. I don't like the model 3 because it's a SUV and is too big.
Would love a small two-door hatchback. Hate having to borrow my neighbor's truck every time I need to buy something large like a pressure washer, lawn mower, tv or other item that comes in a large box.

Unfortunately, the boxy shape of most compact hatchback cars that makes them good for throwing stuff in them is not very aerodynamic. The only reason they get reasonably good gas mileage is because they are lightweight and have small cross sectional area. The light weight doesn't benefit an EV as much as it does the inefficient ICE.
I hope whatever Tesla (or anyone else) comes out with meets your needs.

 

[SVMike]

I hate that the parcel tray behind the rear seats in the model 3 only lets you put items in that are about 2 ft tall. Bought a microwave and I could barely get it in the back seats to get it home. And it's a pain trying to get my bike in the back. I don't like the model 3 because it's a SUV and is too big.
Would love a small two-door hatchback. Hate having to borrow my neighbor's truck every time I need to buy something large like a pressure washer, lawn mower, tv or other item that comes in a large box.

I think you mean a model Y. I have a model 3 and there is no parcel tray and its not an SUV

 

[xxxotic]

Oops I sorry I meant I don't like the model Y because it's a SUV. A model 3 has the fixed rear parcel shelf that goes across behind the rear seats which prevents you from putting anything large in the trunk