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Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread
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The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Right. Unless Elon wants to put some of his personal wealth toward a penthouse on top of the magical second floor.
As usual, Mr. Santos almost has it all, but misses in the conclusion because he has to figure out how to turn positive into negative.
Look at the actual statements....
"Sales to Tesla didn't grow as much as expected … Model X number was not sufficient in terms of production. Rather difficult situation"
Yeah, we all already know this.
"Over the longer term, Tesla's Model 3 orders should be larger than we were originally expecting... To the extent that we can supply them ahead of schedule, we are coordinating our efforts with Tesla to see what things we can do to make it happen."
Positive.
wrt FY2018, "Investments into that Gigafactory, we don't know at what timing we'll make that payment…" Panasonic says it expects the payment to be made earlier than expected, but it doesn't yet know when.
More positive.
Mr. Santos still seems to try to perpetuate the idea that the entire Gigafactory is necessary for the 30% cost savings. That's not what Tesla says. Instead, a single phase is enough.
Heard at conference over the weekend from construction supplier, Gigafactory will be 8.5M SF and complete 2020. The 8.5M is new to me, original projections were 10M SF.
Over the last month, gigafactory hiring seems to have continued at a good clip -- a ~17% increase in gigafactory employment. According to LinkedIn, Tesla is employing at least 122. Compare to official Nevada state number of 317 as of March 31.
Panasonic has not increased its headcount. Currently, according to LinkedIn, Panasonic has 25 employees in the area (not all of whom work at the gigafactory). Compare to official Nevada state number of 52 as of March 31.
Panasonic has not increased its headcount. Currently, according to LinkedIn, Panasonic has 25 employees in the area (not all of whom work at the gigafactory). Compare to official Nevada state number of 52 as of March 31.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Could it be that they're talking ground footprint area? It seems they changed the building design underway by adding a second level which might mean the same, or even higher total floor area, but a somewhat reduced footprint on the ground level?
Santos is so wrong it's not funny. I went and listened to the linked (English translation) of the Panasonic meeting, and they say "We are also building capacity for rectangular cells at D______" (a location name I couldn't identify) to sell into the storage market and also other markets. This makes it clear that this is a separate project totally unrelated to Tesla (it's at a location which has nothing to do with Tesla) but the idiot Santos thinks, and claims to his readers, that this has something to do with Tesla.
He really is misleading people by gross dishonesty to the point of selectively omitting words from quotes, and I kind of expect someone to sue him and Seeking Alpha over it eventualy.
There are interesting implications in the Pansonic conference call. They are shy of investing on Tesla's behalf preemptively, so they are probably shy of speculative factory investment in general But they are building rectangular cells for the storage market. I am suspicious they are building them for an undisclosed client who is trying to compete in the storage market -- I wonder who it is?
I would be worth doing a rundown of potential storage-battery competitors again to see who might be ordering custom rectangular cells from Panasonic, but I can't be bothered at the moment.
He really is misleading people by gross dishonesty to the point of selectively omitting words from quotes, and I kind of expect someone to sue him and Seeking Alpha over it eventualy.
There are interesting implications in the Pansonic conference call. They are shy of investing on Tesla's behalf preemptively, so they are probably shy of speculative factory investment in general But they are building rectangular cells for the storage market. I am suspicious they are building them for an undisclosed client who is trying to compete in the storage market -- I wonder who it is?
I would be worth doing a rundown of potential storage-battery competitors again to see who might be ordering custom rectangular cells from Panasonic, but I can't be bothered at the moment.
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Sudre
Active Member
I would expect battery manufacturers in Asian countries to build battery packs for Tesla's built in Asian countries.
I would expect battery factories in North America to build battery packs for cars in North America.
I would even hazard to guess the battery factories in the EU will make batteries for electric car sold in the EU.
I don't think Lithium battery manufacturing is has pollution intensives like refining oil into gas so there is no need to keep the battery factories far away like refineries.
Seems logical that the Tesla Gigafactory in the US and expanded factories from Panosonic are going to be required to produce the 1 million world wide Tesla vehicles which Elon hopes to create. I think there is a much bigger picture than some are seeing.
Tesla would be foolish not to talk to all suppliers just in case demand is really heavy like.... well you know... The Model S when it first hit the streets. If I recall there was a battery shortage for a short bit.
I would expect battery factories in North America to build battery packs for cars in North America.
I would even hazard to guess the battery factories in the EU will make batteries for electric car sold in the EU.
I don't think Lithium battery manufacturing is has pollution intensives like refining oil into gas so there is no need to keep the battery factories far away like refineries.
Seems logical that the Tesla Gigafactory in the US and expanded factories from Panosonic are going to be required to produce the 1 million world wide Tesla vehicles which Elon hopes to create. I think there is a much bigger picture than some are seeing.
Tesla would be foolish not to talk to all suppliers just in case demand is really heavy like.... well you know... The Model S when it first hit the streets. If I recall there was a battery shortage for a short bit.
Possibly no, but the premise of the Gigafactory is that there is a huge scaling benefit in battery factories which makes the case for one huge centralized production instead.
I think the gigafactory has turned into an interesting mystery. Tesla may not tell us the basics until the model 3 is released. Obviously something changed, and they are not just duplicating an existing panasonic cell factory.
I think I missed something. What makes you question the initial plan? What seem to have changed, why not a mere cell+pack factory with recycling capabities?
Reeler
Decade of Pure EV Driving
They altered plans to build a pilot plant, including removing a section of steel. Clearly they did not pursue their initial plan.
Panasonic doesn't need a pilot plant to build cylinder cells at the gigafactory. My guess is that that Tesla is working on pack building processes that are as cell agnostic as possible. This is an area where Tesla can make new IP. Panasonic could also be producing a unique/modified cell type that is less expensive but still can be cooled adequately to allow a low C rate.
There is a Tesla space and a Panasonic space in the gigafactory. It seems somewhat unlikely to me that Tesla is adding processes engineering to front end the panasonic cell building process. It seems more likely that the Tesla is only on the back end, building stuff from cells.
Tesla needed less expensive cells, so they formed the gigafactory. Since that time, cell prices have dropped significantly faster than expected. Is Tesla still pursuing even cheaper cells, or have they altered their strategy? With cheaper than expected cells available, Tesla's primary need is probably to de-risk cells.
Edit: Also, by plan they need about 25 gwh of packs for the M3 in 2018. That is half the original capacity of the GF. One way to do 25 gwh in the space they will have built is to eliminate the raw material processing on site.
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It's not just about space (but even on the floor space level, Tesla is at just 14% of the planned size), but also total investments to achieve the needed GWh.
Equipment costs are the same worldwide. As we know: So far (end of Q1 2016), Panasonic and Tesla combined only invested $500 million - even if they add another $500 million after the "grand opening" of the pilot plant within the existing structure that amounts to only 20% of the initial projection of $5 billion.
In comparison:
- Daimler is investing around $600 million for a mere battery pack factory expansion in Germany (importing all the finished cells from Asia, therefore this plant much simpler/cheaper in terms of machinery/tooling). See my older posts in this thread for details.
- VW is rumored to invest up to 10 billion EUR if they go ahead with a fully integrated battery plant in Germany. German source via dpa:
Zehn-Milliarden-Euro-Investition für Elektroautos: Volkswagen erwägt Bau gigantischer Batteriefabrik in Salzgitter
Tesla and Panasonic will have to invest billions more over the coming years to make the current pilot plant into a Gigafactory at the projected output levels.
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