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Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

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I believe the analyst's estimates are too conservative. In this article from Monday, Elon claims that they will be capable of producing a 1,000 km (621 mi) range car by 2017, and a 1,200 km (746 mi) range car by 2020. This would imply a 217% and 261% range increase (as well as battery density) over Tesla's current top range of 286 miles for the Model S 90D. Assuming that Tesla's current pack cost is $200/kWh (not $250/kWh as the analyst suggests), the pack cost would be $92/kWh in 2017 and $77/kWh in 2020, not the $126/kWh ($88 cells + $38 pack components) that the analyst suggests. Based on these calculations, the 50 kWh battery for the Model 3 would cost $4,600 in 2017 and $3,850 in 2020.

This is consistent with Elon's claim that battery densisty will improve at 5 - 10% per year if you assume that they will double in 2016 once the Gigafactory starts producing packs. If you take today's range, 286 miles, double it for 2016, then increase that by 7.5% (average of 5 to 10% claim) for 2017, you get 615 miles, pretty spot on with Elon's claim of a 621 mile range by 2017. If you continue to increase the range by 7.5% per year, you get 764 miles by 2020, again, pretty close to Elon's claim of a 746 mile range by 2020.

Elon's quote was taken out of context. He did not claim that "everyday" range would be 1,000km by 2017 and 1,200km by 2020. They were referencing a Tesla Model S owner that set the range record by only going 24mph on a fairly flat rd. So they were speaking about a very specific not real world range example. Elon's extrapolations were based on this one example, and should not be interpreted to apply to normal driving and rated range.
 
Please don't take his estimates out of context. That range was quoted relative to current hypermilers. i.e. the current record for distance on a given charge is 800km.

"A Model S was recently driven 452 miles (723km) on a single charge, but drove at an average speed of just 24mph. Musk says his predictions account for driving at a more realistic speed."

This statement implies that his predictions were based on real world range as opposed to record breaking range.

Edit: I found a link to the original interview, and after watching it, I agree that he was referring to record range, not everyday range. Sorry for the confusion.
 
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The Reno Gazette Journal published a story today about recent gigafactory permits that will enable interior work to commence. Those permits include work for:
  • mechanical piping at $7 million
  • phase one roofing at $4.5 million
  • exterior building walls at $3 million
  • electrical switchyard at $2 million
  • exterior hardscapes at $ 1 million

The story also mentions how a permit for a data center on the Tesla site has been issued.
 
Quadcopter flight in early October. Can anyone decode what we are seeing on the roof? Tesla Gigafactory - Drone fly over - October- 2015 - YouTube

Very cool video, thanks for posting. Looks much more finished now, not only the completed walls, but also all the infrastructure surrounding the factory, most notably the substation. Good to see some progress here while the stock price action is rather depressing. Looking at the pictures, I can now imagine that Tesla will really be able to produce cells in spring.

- - - Updated - - -

Think the white material on the roof is for insulation.
 
Thank you.

With all the many months' discussions of initial footprint versus the absolutely final size of the full-blown factory - there is at least one clue given here. SOME features in any factory are less easily scalable than others: it is relatively easy to knock a factory wall down and make a particular fab-site twice, or thrice as large.

However, it is a very costly pain in the neck to re-locate and expand, for example, an electrical substation. And look at the substation as shown: it has its required guard-fence around slightly more than two times the footprint of the extant towers, transformers, etc. In other words, to me, Tesla is planning eventually on ​at least doubling the final size of the substation. Cool.
 
Quadcopter flight in early October. Can anyone decode what we are seeing on the roof? Tesla Gigafactory - Drone fly over - October- 2015 - YouTube

4th floor.jpg



Did Tesla just add a 4th floor to the Gigafactory??? See white labels in image above, taken from the latest video. Also, note the placement of the strip of windows to the right which appear to be in line of the 4th floor.
 
Did Tesla just add a 4th floor to the Gigafactory??? See white labels in image above, taken from the latest video. Also, note the placement of the strip of windows to the right which appear to be in line of the 4th floor.

Good eye. I would guess that floors one and two are for production, and that portions of "floor three" will be split into two levels of offices.

Also, it could be that some of that space will house HVAC equipment or other stuff that might normally go on the roof, since it will be covered in solar.
 
View attachment 97182


Did Tesla just add a 4th floor to the Gigafactory??? See white labels in image above, taken from the latest video. Also, note the placement of the strip of windows to the right which appear to be in line of the 4th floor.
I don't think there's a floor where you indicate level two, I think you're seeing level one beyond. The beams at level two are likely there to reduce the unbraced length of the columns, allowing them to be smaller than if they weren't there.
 
I don't think there's a floor where you indicate level two, I think you're seeing level one beyond. The beams at level two are likely there to reduce the unbraced length of the columns, allowing them to be smaller than if they weren't there.

4th floor 2.jpg


As confirmed in this video (skip to 2:25), we know that there is a second floor at 23.5', a third floor at 41', and roof at 71' as labeled in the photo above. The elusive 4th floor appears to be halfway between the third floor and roof, so around 56' above ground.
 
As confirmed in this video (skip to 2:25), we know that there is a second floor at 23.5', a third floor at 41', and roof at 71' as labeled in the photo above.

That is a cool video, and helps explain why Tesla chose Reno, among other interesting details about the Gigafactory (*6* commercial kitchens onsite, including sushi). It also does confirm at least 2 floors above ground, at 23.5' and 41'. 5.5" concrete on each floor, apparently, which sounds impressive to me, but I have no frame of reference.
 

Didn't mean to come across so harshly. No apology necessary. But yeah, it will get bigger. I would also note that the building looks smaller than it is because there isn't a lot to reference against. But if you look closely there are cars that look like little ants in the footage. While it may look like a two story building the height is actually 71ft tall! That's over the height of a standard seven story building!