ZenMan
Member
I believe the analyst's estimates are too conservative. In this article from Monday, Elon claims that they will be capable of producing a 1,000 km (621 mi) range car by 2017, and a 1,200 km (746 mi) range car by 2020. This would imply a 217% and 261% range increase (as well as battery density) over Tesla's current top range of 286 miles for the Model S 90D. Assuming that Tesla's current pack cost is $200/kWh (not $250/kWh as the analyst suggests), the pack cost would be $92/kWh in 2017 and $77/kWh in 2020, not the $126/kWh ($88 cells + $38 pack components) that the analyst suggests. Based on these calculations, the 50 kWh battery for the Model 3 would cost $4,600 in 2017 and $3,850 in 2020.
This is consistent with Elon's claim that battery densisty will improve at 5 - 10% per year if you assume that they will double in 2016 once the Gigafactory starts producing packs. If you take today's range, 286 miles, double it for 2016, then increase that by 7.5% (average of 5 to 10% claim) for 2017, you get 615 miles, pretty spot on with Elon's claim of a 621 mile range by 2017. If you continue to increase the range by 7.5% per year, you get 764 miles by 2020, again, pretty close to Elon's claim of a 746 mile range by 2020.
Elon's quote was taken out of context. He did not claim that "everyday" range would be 1,000km by 2017 and 1,200km by 2020. They were referencing a Tesla Model S owner that set the range record by only going 24mph on a fairly flat rd. So they were speaking about a very specific not real world range example. Elon's extrapolations were based on this one example, and should not be interpreted to apply to normal driving and rated range.