Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

[Blurry_Eyed]

I haven't seen much discussion yet related to Japan's vested interest in moving off foreign oil. They are highly dependent on imported oil and it seems to me that both Japanese companies as well as the Japanese government might be very attracted to buying an interest in a Giga factory (Thus mitigating some of the cash drain on Tesla). As the world moves more towards electric vehicles, I would think that Panasonic would want to be in a position to free up their domestic production of cells for local use as well as export use to buyers who might be willing to pay premiums due to constrained supplies and would want to have an ownership stake in a production facility that would be based in the U.S. and/or Europe and/or China.

Seems like any concerns the market might express over the cost of the factory and the cash drain and potential dilution that might occur would be a buying opportunity as I personally believe that there will be plenty of funding available to Tesla to build a factory and that such a factory will be another nail in the coffin for the big automakers which would help Tesla take market cap from the other automakers.

Additionally from a bull/bear standpoint, the bears always point out that once the big automakers decide to 'get serious' about electric vehicles that Tesla will be doomed. If the bears are also going to argue that battery constraints will limit the ability of Tesla to ever ramp up their vehicle production, then the big automakers will face even more of a constraint if they don't build battery factories. Tesla again is widening it's future lead by getting the Giga factory under way and under Tesla control.

I don't know enough about how the other big automakers secure their battery supplies and if they manufacture them in-house or outsource for them. But I would suspect they will not be able to ramp up battery production beyond a few hundred thousand vehicles because of such constraints with out a facility that they control. Tesla, being the biggest consumer (or at least on track to be - I haven't confirmed this fact myself) of laptop form factor cells now holds the clout to get first crack at the best battery tech and supply deals.

 

[jkeyser14]

I think everyone is missing a big player in the gigafactory... Musk has stated that it would be solar powered. This is a shoe in for SCTY as a partner providing the infrastructure for a 1 GW installation. I bought my shares this morning before posting this.

 

[Cattledog]

More Giga Factory Info/Rumo(u)rs

Report: Tesla eyes NM for factory | Electric Power News | Energy Central

 

[Discoducky]

Could be onto something...

Contacted about Chowdhry's report, Tesla emailed a response to the Journal
saying: "Thanks for reaching out. We do not have a comment."

 

[hobbes]

Interesting! However, therer is one thing I don´t quite understand:

[The factory] may also manufacture a hybrid battery pack that could increase the driving range on Model S cars by 10 percent to 15 percent.

Does anyone know what they are talking about? Hope it doesn´t mean they are building a small ICE into the pack .

For 85 kWh, +15% comes close to 100 KWh. Would be interesting for the X to do the same range as the S.

 

[Discoducky]

Interesting! However, therer is one thing I don´t quite understand:



Does anyone know what they are talking about? Hope it doesn´t mean they are building a small ICE into the pack .

For 85 kWh, +15% comes close to 100 KWh. Would be interesting for the X to do the same range as the S.

The whole article is speculation as TM did not comment so I wouldn't read anything into that.

 

[physicsfita]

Tesla does have a patent for a hybrid battery: Tesla Vehicle Extended Range Hybrid Battery Pack System

 

[Adm]

Tesla has been talking to many cities and states before buying the Nummi factory, I imagine they would be shopping around for the best conditions on the Giga factory too. Maybe NM, maybe TX, who knows?

 

[jkirkebo]

Interesting! However, therer is one thing I don´t quite understand:



Does anyone know what they are talking about? Hope it doesn´t mean they are building a small ICE into the pack .

A hybrid pack could be pack consisting of mostly high energy density cells and some high power density cells. The high power part could help supply 400kW to the motors even with a smaller battery and be recharged by the high energy density cells when possible.

 

[pz1975]

Maybe this is what they are referring to (article from Sept. 2013): New Tesla Patent: 400-Mile Battery Pack Using Metal-Air Lithium-Ion Batteries | CleanTechnica

Basically a hybrid battery pack with combination lithium-ion and metal-air where the Li-ion side would be used most of the time and metal-air only when needed on longer trips. This article is reporting the patent filing for this technology.

 

[TD1]

As far as I know Elon they will select an area for the Gigafactory that is big enough to House a second Car production Factory in the future.
In addition to that it should have enough space to house a concentrated solar plant to power both factories.
So Gigafactory + Recycling facility + Solar plant + 2nd Production Factory, that will be a massiv industrial complex

 

[hobbes]

Maybe this is what they are referring to (article from Sept. 2013): New Tesla Patent: 400-Mile Battery Pack Using Metal-Air Lithium-Ion Batteries | CleanTechnica

Basically a hybrid battery pack with combination lithium-ion and metal-air where the Li-ion side would be used most of the time and metal-air only when needed on longer trips. This article is reporting the patent filing for this technology.

Cool, you and physicsfita beat me - I was searching and found the same info. I have to admit it´s all quite speculative, but hey, thats part of the fun. And why would the analyst make up such a detail out of thin air - he said the info was gathered at a couple of conferences his firm attended?!

 

[EV2BFREE]

As far as I know Elon they will select an area for the Gigafactory that is big enough to House a second Car production Factory in the future.
In addition to that it should have enough space to house a concentrated solar plant to power both factories.
So Gigafactory + Recycling facility + Solar plant + 2nd Production Factory, that will be a massiv industrial complex

Previously Elon mentioned building Tesla Trucks in Texas. That could have just been smoke and mirrors to get anti-Tesla legislation to not pass or he could have really meant it.
Texas is trying to lure SpaceX into the state(The Dallas Morning News | Options) so im sure they would try to compete for a Tesla factory also.

 

[kenliles]

Previously Elon mentioned building Tesla Trucks in Texas. That could have just been smoke and mirrors to get anti-Tesla legislation to not pass or he could have really meant it.
Texas is trying to lure SpaceX into the state(The Dallas Morning News | Options) so im sure they would try to compete for a Tesla factory also.

Of course without dealership law changes the irony would be too much for the mind. You can build 'em here but not sell 'em.

 

[Cattledog]

Perhaps they'll circumvent by calling the whole thing a movable battery rather than a car. Duracell doesn't need dealerships, do they?

Of course without dealership law changes the irony would be too much for the mind. You can build 'em here but not sell 'em.

 

[brianman]

"Let's make something with an additional point of failure and much higher complexity for a 10% improvement."
If that's the sales pitch, I can't imagine who the buyer would be.

 

[tftf]

IIRC Elon mentioned that half the number of cells would be about right. They could do by going from 18650 to 28650 form factor (28mm diameter). This gives factor 2.4 for gross cell volume. The Tesla battery is designed so that every cell can shed heat effectively by small volume, steel casing and direct contact to the coolant loops. If the 28650 form factor can fulfil thermal design limits too, they are good to go this way.
Best would be to have flexible cell producing machinery.

Do you think we already learn such technical details tonight? I hope we get at least the rough numbers (location, timeline for construction, investment size) and (some of the) involved partners during the earnings/conference call.

 

[JRP3]

I doubt we'll learn any such technical details.

 

[uselesslogin]

So, just throwing it out there. They are building a factory to double worldwide battery production and they are doing it with partners and part of this business is obviously grid storage. Doesn't it make sense for Tesla Motors to be a part owner in a new company, perhaps one called Tesla Energy? The other companies would also own part of this new company so the capital cost to Tesla Motors would be significantly reduced at the cost of sharing the earnings. It would sell battery packs to any car maker that wants them although only Tesla Motors would sell complete drivetrains. This is what makes sense to me and it is a much better solution for Tesla Motors than diluting their shares. I think it also speeds the electrification of transport because other car makers might be more comfortable buying only the battery pack and doing their own drivetrain.

Tesla's IP would be purchased by this new company so Tesla Motors wouldn't need to contribute as much capital (if any) to the venture.

This is just wild speculation though. I am very excited to see what we learn today.

 

[TSLAopt]

So, just throwing it out there. They are building a factory to double worldwide battery production and they are doing it with partners and part of this business is obviously grid storage. Doesn't it make sense for Tesla Motors to be a part owner in a new company, perhaps one called Tesla Energy? The other companies would also own part of this new company so the capital cost to Tesla Motors would be significantly reduced at the cost of sharing the earnings. It would sell battery packs to any car maker that wants them although only Tesla Motors would sell complete drivetrains. This is what makes sense to me and it is a much better solution for Tesla Motors than diluting their shares. I think it also speeds the electrification of transport because other car makers might be more comfortable buying only the battery pack and doing their own drivetrain.

Tesla's IP would be purchased by this new company so Tesla Motors wouldn't need to contribute as much capital (if any) to the venture.

This is just wild speculation though. I am very excited to see what we learn today.

this is a great idea...perhaps SCTY would even have a piece of it too for providing the energy to run the factory with solar panels and their future need for energy storage devices from Tesla Energy