Without knowing the terms of the deal we can't really read the meaning. Is it just fixing the price of the next nkWh of capacity or is BMW promising to buy that amount?
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Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread
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Without knowing the terms of the deal we can't really read the meaning. Is it just fixing the price of the next nkWh of capacity or is BMW promising to buy that amount?
I have always felt that the BMWs and MBs of the world would not try to compete with TM. The question is will the public be satisfied with hybrids? BMW and MB would as it will allow their dealers to still have the ICE part of the vehicle to service so they will be very willing to sell hybrids versus EVs. Many in the public will be happy with 40-80 mile battery ranges for short trips and having the convenience of being able to gas up anywhere for long trips. No range anxiety.
TM, and other EVs will 'win' when they can charge a battery to give it 200+ miles of range in the time it takes to fill a gas tank.
GM == Epic Fail
RT
Sounds more like the battery researchers weren't able to deliver the required performance. A better battery would be great news, just as long as it doesn't give GM an advantage over Tesla :wink:
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
a total win perhaps- but I think the might win the war on a different mantra: 'plug in at home- always a full tank' even better -
couple that with the SC free for long trips- done deal, 'we're home free' (all puns intended)
Great find. Thanks for posting this.
I corresponded with the author a little bit, asking for some clarity about various NMC chemistries and the like, because he seems to put the Nissan Leaf chemistry with the Samsung SDI/BMW chemistry into the same category. Paraphrasing, he's saying that the NMC issue with fade has to do with trying to increase the operating voltage above 4.2 volts which is what they were hoping to achieve to gain the specific energy levels above NCA and hopefully not suffer from the relative instability of NCA. He also said that the price levels he quoted are from "Burrell's presentation at the Annual Merit Review in Washington last month." Does anyone have access to that? It looks like energy.gov will publish it in October.
The implications of this are pretty startling. That means that there is little hope that the improvements in NMC chemistry that various non-Tesla automakers are banking on will pan out. Which means that Tesla's approach by using relatively volatile NCA chemistry but designing a battery pack to mitigate the issues with the volatility is going to be, in the short term, the winning solution. The existing NMC based cells as shipped by BMW and others have had far lower specific energy than Tesla's cells, and even given the cooling jackets and spacing, the overall specific energy at the pack level Tesla's solution is still superior.
That means that the next generation of BEVs will be locked behind Tesla's battery solution due to the inability to achieve higher specific energy density at the cell and pack levels.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
The issue is what specific energy do you get when you do that. There is a big gap to jump - they were originally hoping for 280 Wh/kg, which is only slightly better than Tesla's 250-260 Wh/kg NCA cells. Using a different cathode with lower specific energy and using NMC as a shell is likely to make them miss the 280 Wh/kg target.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Agree, but if it still turns out to be cheaper, safer, and needs less pack support structure it could still be viable.
Gotta keep the grant money rolling in.
I guess this is one of those "good for my portfolio, bad for the future of mankind" news stories.
I wonder if the recent announcements from GM and BMW have something to do with all this. A lot of the manufacturers were hesitant to invest in batteries because they were waiting for their technology to breakthrough. Since they were most likely aware of these recent findings, could it be they decided to invest in it and focus on bringing down the cost on mass production? It might also explain why BMW had that meeting with Tesla.
I mean the timing can't all be a coincidence.
As for Nissan Leaf, I thought they used LMO then transitioned to LMO-NMC, didn't they?
I mean the timing can't all be a coincidence.
As for Nissan Leaf, I thought they used LMO then transitioned to LMO-NMC, didn't they?
A little off topic, but I got into a discussion about the future of BEVs vs FCEVs on Green Car Report. The FCEV proponents were over the top defending FCEVs, making claims there were more charging stations, etc.
So I contacted DoE about that. I was directed to their alternative fueling station lists.
The list includes both public and private refueling/recharging sites. It doesn't differentiate, but was told it included employer refueling/recharging stations as well.
FCEV ALL OPEN (nationally): 53
FCEV ALL PROPOSED (nationally): 49
BEV ALL OPEN (nationally): 1192
BEV ALL PROPOSED (nationally): about 9000
It would seem, ignoring which was the better technology, that BEVs have public mind share, and investor interest for recharging systems.
So I contacted DoE about that. I was directed to their alternative fueling station lists.
The list includes both public and private refueling/recharging sites. It doesn't differentiate, but was told it included employer refueling/recharging stations as well.
FCEV ALL OPEN (nationally): 53
FCEV ALL PROPOSED (nationally): 49
BEV ALL OPEN (nationally): 1192
BEV ALL PROPOSED (nationally): about 9000
It would seem, ignoring which was the better technology, that BEVs have public mind share, and investor interest for recharging systems.
Benz
Active Member
For homeowners the answer is NO. For business owners the answer is in their current power consumption, the reason being the amortized cost of the generating equipment.
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With the exception of Tesla and Qualcom, your list is of firms founded before the insanity ensued. I relocated my communications equipment business from San Bernardino, CA to Coeur d'Alene, ID in 1991. The change in governmental attitude was immediate, as was the growth of my firm. The exodus of California firms around that time resulted in several changes in California business work rules/taxes (that have all regressed to starting point).
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The first "McDonald's" was located at 13th and "E" Street in San Bernardino, CA. In 1949, my father, an airman at nearby Norton Air Force Base was an evening manager.
Those numbers seem outdated as I am pretty sure there are over 5000 public charging sites, that said maybe you meant to post this under:
Competing technologies to BEV
Because I don't see what this has to do with the gigafactory or batteries is specific.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Agreed. After all. They waste their time standing at the pump. Then they go in to the restroom, buy a snack, or eat dinner,etc. We can do the rest while we're charging.
Tesla has developed a 'quick change' system whereby the battery is swapped in less time than it takes to gas up. Re-charging is not the issue any longer, it is the availability of recharging stations away from home or work. There are over 9000 stations BEV recharging stations planned (nationally) at this time. Tesla is spearheading the development of these sites with its Supercharger stations. One of these is co-located with a motel. I see motel co-locating as a mutually beneficial development for the BEV industry and the lodging industry.
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The "download" was to another tab in my browser. From there had to I copy it to Excel. Yuck. Everything showed up in the first column (it ignored comma delimitation). The info may be there, but I was not going to try to break it out.
I would suspect in the next 3 - 5 years.
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Thanks, as you can see I am new here, and not that familiar with all the subjects. The email I received
Shannon Brescher Shea
Clean Cities Communications Manager
Vehicle Technologies Office, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
U.S. Department of Energy
(202) 586-8161
[email protected]
said this about timeliness of date
Alternative Fuels Data Center: Alternative Fueling Station Locator
9,739 electric stations
22,757 charging outlets
including private stations, excluding Level 1 stations
vs
2,976 propane stations
1,399 CNG stations
Including Planned:
1,558 CNG stations
3,007 propane stations
9,789 electric stations
22,914 charging outlets
The site will also separate out Hydrogen, bio-diesel, LNG, and ethanol, for what that’s worth.
9,739 electric stations
22,757 charging outlets
including private stations, excluding Level 1 stations
vs
2,976 propane stations
1,399 CNG stations
Including Planned:
1,558 CNG stations
3,007 propane stations
9,789 electric stations
22,914 charging outlets
The site will also separate out Hydrogen, bio-diesel, LNG, and ethanol, for what that’s worth.
Gregg, I am aware that technology exists. How many has TM actually opened? It is my opinion that instead of those stations, over time they will upgrade the software/hardware on the cars and the SCs to allow for very fast charging of the battery (ex: 80% in 10 minutes=close to time it takes to fill a gas tank). When that happens there will be no range anxiety. Until then, many people (not early adopters like we have on this forum) will not embrace EVs. In addition, even if they would adopt them TM will need to bring the Model E out at $35K to open up another market.
This will all happen but it is difficult to predict when that will be.
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California very much in running for Tesla Gigafactory - SFGate
Seems as though Governor Brown is going "all in". I can only imagine Governor Perry is doing the same. Man, what I would have given to be a fly on the wall. I cannot think of another business endeavor where a businessman has leveraged an opportunity to this degree.
Seems as though Governor Brown is going "all in". I can only imagine Governor Perry is doing the same. Man, what I would have given to be a fly on the wall. I cannot think of another business endeavor where a businessman has leveraged an opportunity to this degree.
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