Tesla Gigafactory

[ScepticMatt]

OXIS just tweeted and here is quotes from press release:

I have followed them for a while. Nice that they are progressing along.
I still have some issues with them. First, they way undersell the market (NCA, LiPo) to make themselves look better,
for example stating that Tesla batters are "prone to catch fire".
And so far they only posted superficial performance metrics.
What charge/discharge rates did they use for their 300 Wh/kg, 2000 cycles number?
Many recent papers on Li-S show that cells can retain much less charge and last a lot less long at higher C rates.

 

[evme]

OXIS just tweeted and here is quotes from press release:

"battery technology offers energy density greater than 300Wh/kg" <--they claiming it is available today.
"product, which will be launched in two to three years, is expected to successfully achieve 2,000 cycles before the capacity reduces to 80 per cent of its beginning of life (BoL)"

link

But I agree it wount be ready for mass production even in 3 years from now. OXIS aiming availability of 400Wh/kg cells by 2016 btw.

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I think a lot of people get too distracted with energy density by weight when in reality for mobile applications, energy density by volume is far more important as you run out of space to place enough batteries. Their claim is at 450wh/l in 2016. Panasonic's 4ah cells are at 800wh/l and I am sure panasonic already has something better.

Panasonic Develops High-Capacity Lithium-Ion Battery Cells That Can Power Laptops and Electric Vehicles | Headquarters News | Panasonic Global

On top of that their graphic is really confusing, in the chart they put lithium ion safety as "poor reputation". Which means they are not saying it is poor, they are saying that it is stereotyped negatively rather than comparing it. Then they go on to label their environmental as "Bengin". I know what the word means but where does that go on the scale? Usually you have Poor, fair, good, very good, excellent. That makes up a rating scale.

Then there is the temperature tolerance which theirs "operates at 80C". While for lithium ion it degrades at 45C. But what they are not saying is if lithium ion operates at 80C or if theirs degrades at all.

It is just way too shady.

 

[ggr]

I think a lot of people get too distracted with energy density by weight when in reality for mobile applications, energy density by volume is far more important as you run out of space to place enough batteries. Their claim is at 450wh/l in 2016. Panasonic's 4ah cells are at 800wh/l and I am sure panasonic already has something better.

Panasonic Develops High-Capacity Lithium-Ion Battery Cells That Can Power Laptops and Electric Vehicles | Headquarters News | Panasonic Global

On top of that their graphic is really confusing, in the chart they put lithium ion safety as "poor reputation". Which means they are not saying it is poor, they are saying that it is stereotyped negatively rather than comparing it. Then they go on to label their environmental as "Bengin". I know what the word means but where does that go on the scale? Usually you have Poor, fair, good, very good, excellent. That makes up a rating scale.

Then there is the temperature tolerance which theirs "operates at 80C". While for lithium ion it degrades at 45C. But what they are not saying is if lithium ion operates at 80C or if theirs degrades at all.

It is just way too shady.

And they don't mention at all the charge/discharge rates, which are extremely important for pushing cars around.

 

[Ohm Alone]

here is the original timeline as published in the blog entry on the GF:

I start from a few assumptions
- first building part is 20% (see Elon's tweet)
- the project is done in 5 parts
- the "construction" phase of the following parts is shortened because grading and supply lines are already done
- after the first "equipment installation" and "production launch" phases, these will be shortened too (learning effect)

So I arrive at this timeline up to 2020 for full production:

+ the teams for every phase will hop to the same work on the next part

what do you think?

I have seen some speculation to the effect that what is being contemplated is very similar to your chart, so that there are in effect 5 (identical?) side by side start to finish production lines than can all be finished off and producing on different time scales. Done that way, the date in production for each production cell might be different ie that production cell #1 is producing by end of 2015/early 2016, #2 is six or so months after, and #5 reaches full production 'by 2020' (could be Jan 2020, could be before 2020, but will be "by 2020") . The beauty of this is that the capital cost of building is (more) neatly tied to expected expansion of vehicle production, and production would actually start sooner than commonly believed/postulated by Wall Street. Another benefit would be a smaller construction team, with adjust on the fly techniques as things become real life obvious, with the same teams getting lots of long-term experience and proficiency/employment. Therefore, an experienced production team or a nucleus could easily be gathered (willingly) to start another Gigafactory before this one is even complete. As well, changes in manufacturing/production could be done on one line without affecting the other 4/5ths. an example would be scaling up production of a different battery chemistry/production technique. Not sure how accurate those rumours and speculations might be, but it makes a solid sort of sense rather than building a 'complete' Gigafactory at a high capital cost before production starts and attains speed. Maybe production will be starting in cell #1 just as the exterior walls of #5 are being completed. My take on it anyway.

 

[AUSinator]

Hopefully they consider making the last part of construction a bit earlier as I think they will have a lot of model 3 orders. Not sure about you guys however I think they will have more than half a million orders before even the 1st car delivered.

 

[Runarbt]

Hopefully they consider making the last part of construction a bit earlier as I think they will have a lot of model 3 orders. Not sure about you guys however I think they will have more than half a million orders before even the 1st car delivered.

Even with a lot of orders, they will have to ramp up production of model 3 gradually. Cant start at 500k right away.

I think ramp up of batteries will follow the ramp up of model 3 production. I think Ohm Alone is on to something here.

 

[AUSinator]

The first part of the giga factory will be producing batteries 3 years before the last part so plenty of time to ramp up and as far as I understand the main reason is the battery supply for not being able to increase production.

 

[RobStark]

Panasonic agreed to invest only over 5 installments.

As Tesla increases sales they will increase investment.

Panasonic made massive investments in cell phones and plasma tvs that lost money hand over fist.

So they are not willing to invest in capacity then hope sales materialize.

If Tesla had a better option, say LG Chem or Samsung SDI, they would have taken it.

 

[Car4CivilizedAge]

here is the original timeline as published in the blog entry on the GF:

I start from a few assumptions
- first building part is 20% (see Elon's tweet)
- the project is done in 5 parts
- the "construction" phase of the following parts is shortened because grading and supply lines are already done
- after the first "equipment installation" and "production launch" phases, these will be shortened too (learning effect)

So I arrive at this timeline up to 2020 for full production:

+ the teams for every phase will hop to the same work on the next part

what do you think?

i think you have to move the timeframe according to the Gigafactory being ahead of schedule. Reports have mentioned the factory finishing first part of construction in fall of 2015, with installment of equipment into early 2016. Production of first cells 2016.

 

[MassModel3]

So Elon went on record in January or February saying that there would be an announcement in the next 5 or 6 months about batteries for home storage. My Solar City rep went to a convention in Vegas recently and they told him that they would start selling home storage to current Solar City customers in the next six months or so, but that's all the information he had. Now, I've been going on the assumption that home storage batteries would come from the GF, and I'd be amazed if that's not the case, but maybe I'm wrong. Perhaps my rep was just confused between an announcement of intent to sell and actual availability.

 

[techmaven]

So Elon went on record in January or February saying that there would be an announcement in the next 5 or 6 months about batteries for home storage. My Solar City rep went to a convention in Vegas recently and they told him that they would start selling home storage to current Solar City customers in the next six months or so, but that's all the information he had. Now, I've been going on the assumption that home storage batteries would come from the GF, and I'd be amazed if that's not the case, but maybe I'm wrong. Perhaps my rep was just confused between an announcement of intent to sell and actual availability.

The Gigafactory's first cells are not expected until late 2016, so any battery product coming from Tesla would have to use cells made elsewhere.

 

[Fanatic]

Is there some new photos on the Gigafactory progress somewhere? Many days without new info now.

 

[hockeythug]

Is that crane operator that was complaining back to work yet?

 

[doctoxics]

Last photo that I have seen was posted on the Tesla Forum. Gigafactory as of 3/21/2015 (88 megapixel panoramic) via Reddit | Forums | Tesla Motors

 

[Fanatic]

anyone has some progress reports?

Anyone has some progress reports? Has the interest for the GF cooled down that much?

 

[Gerasimental]

 

[doggusfluffy]

The Big Lebowski opening scene - YouTube

 

[TEG]

2nd floor going up ?

TESLA e la Gigafactory - Progetto straordinario - MotorAge New Generation

Taurus Projects on Twitter:

 

[ScepticMatt]

2nd floor going up ?

Those are both old images and were posted in this thread or the Investor version. The first one was posted in early January.
The steel construction now is 4 times as big.

Tesla Gigafactory - Page 18

 

[Andex23]

I was out there the first week in March (the day before the electrical union hubbub in the press). I am in construction and development and my first question when I stood on the hill looking down on the work was "where are all the people?" I saw one welder and two cranes that were operational with limited manpower in support (i.e. riggers). From my perspective, Tesla is not setting any records for construction. I would have more footings being dug right now for the next phases. IME, you want to keep a subcontractor flowing across a site. Granted, this is a huge site but they really have no trades outside of the steel sub in any measureable force and even they are not really working fast. It seems like a bad use of project float to let the project drag along even if they are waiting for infrastructure or machines that are the critical path. The new photos did nothing but help reinforce my opinion (look at the parking lot, where are the cars?). The metal deck has been spread and nelson studs installed on the first quadrant for almost 3 months and yet there is still no rebar being spread to even prep for concrete, baffles me. Just because the next phase doesn't need to be completed for a duration doesn't mean they should start it in case anything happens.

And before anyone gets on me about embeds for equipment just remember, this whole plant is supposed to be designed for replacing machines when new technology occurs, that would imply a more modular system of design that doesn't require the equipment be complete to coordinate. As a huge Tesla fan and large stock holder, I think they can do better, they are holding the reins for something (my best guess is quarterly capex, few other reasons to slow play a huge factory).