Tesla Master Plan Part 2 & 3

[andrerodpt]

Quick story? Mercedes Benz had never made a station wagon until 1960 or so (not sure the year) An older wealthy lady goes into the MB dealer in NYC and demands a station wagon. She was so insistent (and did I say rich) MB made her one. There were only 2 built with one on display in California MB HQ. Story was on Wheeler Dealers recently

Never made one in US, right?

Because here I bet they are on par with the saloon on the C-Class model.

 

[1208]

He's missing out on the construction industry vehicles. Volvo makes them...

 

[ggies07]

As far as the Tesla/Solarcity/Powerwall merging: Tesla can become so huge eventually they will be looked at as the evil corp. like Exxon/Mobil is today. IDK if anything can be done about that but it will happen.

WTF are you talking about? They are evil because they are profiting from destroying the planet.....Tesla is the exact OPPOSITE of that.

 

[SageBrush]

EM always reminds people to read his plans in the context of first principle thinking, and the part of him that is an engineer does not take well to inefficiency. The desire for a sustainable society we know about.

Once one realizes that a private car today sits idle most of it's life and accumulates opportunity cost, the rest follows as implementation details. Implementation #1: taxi drivers are going extinct. Soon

Go Elon!

 

[Blackout]

Now I'm wondering is it better to get a Model 3 or wait for the Model Y...

but the best part of the Master Plan part Deux is this: I was thinking about it 3 months ago, and I am happy to know that he is already working on it...

Sharing When true self-driving is approved by regulators, it will mean that you will be able to summon your Tesla from pretty much anywhere. Once it picks you up, you will be able to sleep, read or do anything else enroute to your destination.

You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you’re at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost. This dramatically lowers the true cost of ownership to the point where almost anyone could own a Tesla. Since most cars are only in use by their owner for 5% to 10% of the day, the fundamental economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a car which is not.

In cities where demand exceeds the supply of customer-owned cars, Tesla will operate its own fleet, ensuring you can always hail a ride from us no matter where you are.

 

[Daliman]

Although I think that the larger use for autonomous electric vehicles will be fleets like Uber or Transit systems deploying them as a more flexible alternative to large buses. Even before autonomy just organizing a fleet with a sufficiently subtle app and sharing vehicles could have an impact on emissions. Imagine a fleet picking up 4-5 people in a suburb who have hit an app asking for a ride at their homes and taking them to their offices downtown. There is enough flexibility in such a system to take massive numbers of cars off our roads and cut emissions. The "bus" proposed in the plan seems to be a larger ( perhaps 10 passenger?) version of this idea, perhaps divided into individual pods each with their own access. Do they divide from the vehicle, drop you at your door and come back to the vehicle, time will tell.

I do see potential for using perhaps 50% of the idle time of an autonomous vehicle for earning income. Up until a few years ago I didn't rent our cottage, now we earn an income through Airbnb that covers all of the expenses and makes some profit. Just like a property rental, where believe me there are people who abuse your trust and leave a mess, there are ways to mitigate the risk. I certainly would not let anyone in my property or vehicle without identity and credit information. When people know you can collect for the damage they cause it makes a significant difference in how they behave. An app can accumulate such information and reviews over time and allow you to reject unwanted customers, not accept calls from unwanted areas etc. A camera system to record damage or illicit activity, a central cleaning contract, a central type of insurance all could be helpful in making this productive and minimizing the risk. After it was set up I can easily see leasing a second Model 3 and using it primarily to generate income with only occasional personal use.

 

[Daliman]

There are a few big things missing from the plan. There is no mention of an updated Roadster. I think that this has been mentioned enough by senior management that it is likely to occur and probably within a couple of years of Model III production starting. They can simply design a body to put on the model III platform, make ludicrous mode standard and stamp out 10,000 bodies at 125,000 each. Once they have an established manufacturing process this doesn't seem like it would take long. I think that this just fell bellow the radar of a list of important new plans.

The Hyperloop is important in making medium range transport fast and sustainable. However it is progressing and being worked on by a variety of companies and university teams. A lot of progress has been made and the money to build working loops seems to exist in several countries. I think Tesla is not taking it on, at least for now, as it is likely to be built with only minor help from Tesla, and we wouldn't want Elon's head to explode.

The VTOL electric jet is the largest piece of the transportation/CO2 emissions puzzle left out of the plan. If Elon ever takes this on I think it is more likely to be done as a division of SpaceX. Expertise in aeronautical engineering and manufacturing is concentrated there. I also suspect that Elon and Larry Page have a gentlemen's agreement that Mr. Page and his companies can try to develop this first.

 

[Chopr147]

WTF are you talking about? They are evil because they are profiting from destroying the planet.....Tesla is the exact OPPOSITE of that.

Sensitive any? Chill dude, success in this country brings criticism and downright disparaging vitriol. Even a legitimate , usually fair minded magazine CR will jump on that bandwagon.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

Gotta be honest.... I found it more troubling than just a sales pitch. My takeaway was that Tesla has pivoted and is deviating from a plan to grow into a mainstream automobile manufacturer. Here's how I got to that conclusion:

Elon said, "A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below." then goes on to describe a public transportation model. This is a departure from previous statements that said of Tesla's plans "there will be future cars that are even more affordable down the road." Takeaway: The Model 3 will be as inexpensive as Tesla goes, and any fourth generation Tesla vehicles are unlikely to be more affordable to consumers.

From this we can start framing Tesla's market potential: If you assume the $35K base level entry cost of the M3 and follow the 20/4/10 Rule (Google it if you don't know what it is.) and limit payment periods to warranty duration (currently 4 years), then monthly payments come in at $762.07/Month for a Model 3. (Assuming a current average interest rate of 3.13% and a 20% down payment.) This data set puts the income level required to purchase a Model 3 (while being 20/4/10 compliant) at a little over $76K/year.

In the US, about 85-87% of the population makes less than $76K for median income. (I know Elon likes to say 50% but he's using average not median income which is statistically flawed.)

This means that the Model 3 market size is limited to a max of potentially 15% of the population, so even a 20% saturation of that potential market would represent a viable market of perhaps 3% of the population.

It seems to me that if this plan is codified, it relegates Tesla (motors) to continuing to being a niche vendor, never growing into an automobile manufacturer of significant market share.

Finally there is this simple, if disturbing, economic truth: The middle class is shrinking, not growing in this country. In the future less, not more, people are going to be able to afford a Tesla.

But they may ride in a Tesla-branded bus (or Uber) someday...

Your analysis may vary.

Perhaps if you parse it as a sales pitch ---Buy My Model 3 now, because it won't be cheaper....will get him to capture the 300,000 sales in the wings. If he said "By my Model 3.5 for 1/2 off in two years" there are sales he would lose to those who decide to wait. Perhaps he is not going to offer a cheaper car for sale, but why is he pushing to make the M3 cheaper to build? Only for profit? I think he understands buyer-mentality better than most.

 

[Adm]

I don't think this was posted yet, but here's George Blankenship sharing his thoughts on the Masterplan

http://www.bnn.ca/video/how-tesla-is-going-to-sell-you-a-car-so-you-can-stop-driving~915435

 

[RubberToe]

Gotta be honest....

This means that the Model 3 market size is limited to a max of potentially 15% of the population, so even a 20% saturation of that potential market would represent a viable market of perhaps 3% of the population. It seems to me that if this plan is codified, it relegates Tesla (motors) to continuing to being a niche vendor, never growing into an automobile manufacturer of significant market share.

Finally there is this simple, if disturbing, economic truth: The middle class is shrinking, not growing in this country. In the future less, not more, people are going to be able to afford a Tesla.

Ah yes, the old "The U.S.A. is the center of the Universe theory", all relevant numbers included.Well, ever hear about this place called China? Google it up. Turns out they sell cars now there too. I know, I was probably as shocked to hear about it as you! A bunch of other places also have a growing middle class, perhaps at the expense of some here.

The world standard of living (GDP) is higher than it ever has been at any point in history, and the middle class in China is larger than the entire population of the center of the Universe (U.S.A). Dat be da fact, Jack!

Your analysis may vary.

I'm in complete agreement with you on this point. The rest, not so much

 

[HankLloydRight]

There are a few big things missing from the plan. There is no mention of an updated Roadster.

I don't think we'll ever see the "updated" roadster anytime in the foreseeable future as you outline. I think it's 99% wishful thinking. It just doesn't fit into the grand scheme. Roadsters like that are low-volume, low demand vehicles. Doesn't really fit the plan. I think Elon would rather make the profit from 500,000 Model 3/Y cars than 100,000 new roadsters.

 

[Daliman]

I totally agree if they do a new Roadster it will be a sideline to please their base, not something that is now a part of the plan to accelerate sustainable transport. It has been mentioned often enough and recently enough that I don't think it can be discounted, it just isn't a priority

Tesla official describes the next generation Roadster as “different, faster and bigger”

New Tesla Roadster Due In 2019: Official

 

[M0DEL³]

Ah yes, the old "ever hear about this place called China? .... Dat be da fact, Jack!

So.... let me help you out by taking the time to add a little reality to your response:

China Median Income (2014): $7590 (US $)

As for your claim about the "the middle class in China is larger than the entire population of the center of the Universe (U.S.A)", What you failed to mention is that in China the definition of being Middle class is not the same as the "middle class" in the United States. In China the "Middle Class" is defined as having an income level between 60,000 to 229,000 renminbi, which translates to $9,000 to $34,000 USD.

In short, almost none of the Chinese "Middle Class" can afford a Model 3, only the wealthy class can. (And in fact not all of what is termed the wealthy class in China can afford a Model 3.)

With the economic changes now occurring in China, that should eventually change, time will tell. Clearly the China market is of interest to Tesla.

Next time you decide to refer to "facts", I'd suggest you might consider actually using some, as drivel like "Dat be da fact, Jack!" clearly fails to promote meaningful dialogue. Should you decide that you are interested in "real" facts, I agree that Google is your friend, but only if you actually bother to use it.

 

[Saghost]

As far as the Tesla/Solarcity/Powerwall merging: Tesla can become so huge eventually they will be looked at as the evil corp. like Exxon/Mobil is today. IDK if anything can be done about that but it will happen.

Google might be a better example - a company central to a lot of recent innovation, with direct influence on many folks daily lives, and grown so huge an byzantine that folks start to worry what they could do...

 

[ggies07]

I don't think this was posted yet, but here's George Blankenship sharing his thoughts on the Masterplan

Video

Great to hear from him, thanks for sharing!

 

[jerry33]

I agree. There's no big vision here, unlike the first version. In particular, the solarcity purchase does not provide an important benefit. There is no "solar installation problem" to be solved by Tesla. Even the software side is only of interest to most buyers for a few months after installation..

If you tried to get Solar City to install in Texas, you might think differently

 

[JeffK]

I have to admit, I was getting close to pulling the trigger on rooftop solar. I even found an installer I like. But I'm concerned about the future of net metering, and I'm very curious about what kind of package Tesla might offer (load balancing storage mitigates the risk of depending on net metering) and whether or not it will be available in my area (SolarCity seemed to have no interest at all at servicing my state, but Tesla might). Now I'm torn between committing to a build with the installer I already found or waiting to see what Tesla can offer.

You don't have terribly long before the significant federal tax credits for these start tapering off...

 

[weak_pig]

How do we deal with thieves, vandalism in car while its rented out? Several passengers could be fetched per day. Not possible to identify who did what unless cabin video cam is installed. Even then it might not catch sneaky/subversive vandalism attempts

 

[JeffK]

How do we deal with thieves, vandalism in car while its rented out? Several passengers could be fetched per day. Not possible to identify who did what unless cabin video cam is installed. Even then it might not catch sneaky/subversive vandalism attempts

I'd imagine you'd need a credit card to rent it out in the first place.