Forgive this rather long post, but this plan is wrought with risk.
The beauty of the Model S is that it was not a new style of automobile. It is a beautiful sedan that could pass for a Maserati, but happens to be electric. Any pickup truck that doesn’t look like an F150 (think futuristic El Camino) is a new product. Convincing the public to buy a new product is always risky. Pickup trucks are utilitarian and can’t be priced so high that you wouldn’t want to bang it up some. I’m concerned about long-term demand for this type of vehicle.
Regarding Semi’s, that’s literally the last type of vehicle transportation that will be electric. Long haul, steady-state, high-horsepower loads are ideal for a diesel engine. They are generally driven by people that don’t give a rat’s ass about how it’s powered, as long as it’s quick to fill up and profitable. My hope is that Tesla doesn’t spend millions to produce a Semi (not to mention the charging infrastructure to support it) before practically all other projects.
Finally, I believe autonomous transport (i.e. a Tesla bus) is much further off than most. When we have a blend of autonomous and manual drivers on the road, it’s going to be awkward for the autonomous cars. Think about how much your personality determines how you drive….the way you nudge your nose into stopped traffic, with a friendly wave, in order to make that left turn. Does anyone seriously think that the majority of people will ‘let in’ an autonomous car into traffic? Take a trip down to Lima, Peru and tell me how well an autonomous vehicle would do in that kind of traffic. There are thousands of situations that if you aren’t a little assertive, you’re stuck for a long time. So who wants to sit in a new product that sucks at driving? Or rather, who wants assertive autonomous vehicles cutting you off in traffic?
Having used autopilot for over 25 years in aircraft, I can tell you that pilots use autopilot for over 90% of the flight. But practically all pilots will tell you that there are situations when it’s just easier to hand-fly the plane; and driving is far, far more situationally challenging than flying.
Thanks to anyone still reading.
