Tesla Model S demand by population

[PeterW]

Reservations taken from gross reservation tally as of 01-01-13

US population 315 million/ 19983 reservations = 1 reservation for every 15763 people.

Even adjusting for downgrades (yes, I know not all are from the US)
315m/ (19983-3787)= 19449

Country(region)... Population(million)... Reservations... POP/Reservations
US...........................315.......................19983..........................15763
US (adjusted)............315.......................16196..........................19449
Canada......................35..........................824...........................42475
Hong Kong...................7.1........................130...........................54615
Europe..................800 (approx).................2914........................274536
Australia/NZ...............27.3..........................86.........................318023
UK............................63.2..........................95.........................665263

 

[Cattledog]

I think if we could isolate Norway we'd have a winner.

 

[Oyvind.H]

Norway alone has about 1000 reservation holders as of 01-01-13 (based on previously stated numbers by norwegian Tesla reps and reservation pace).
With about 5 mill inhabitants that`s 1 reservation for every 5000 people. And the pace is increasing. Tesla expects about 1500-2000 Model S sold in Norway in 2013, but I believe that`s too low and solely a result of lack of deliveries .

In 2014 Tesla would be able to sell at least 4-5000 cars in Norway if they`re able to deliver.....

 

[AustinPowers]

Norway alone has about 1000 reservation holders as of 01-01-13 (based on previously stated numbers by norwegian Tesla reps and reservation pace).
With about 5 mill inhabitants that`s 1 reservation for every 5000 people. And the pace is increasing. Tesla expects about 1500-2000 Model S sold in Norway in 2013, but I believe that`s too low and solely a result of lack of deliveries .

In 2014 Tesla would be able to sell at least 4-5000 cars in Norway if they`re able to deliver.....

Would also be interesting to see the quota for an isolated Benelux region.

 

[ohh]

Norway alone has about 1000 reservation holders as of 01-01-13 (based on previously stated numbers by norwegian Tesla reps and reservation pace).
With about 5 mill inhabitants that`s 1 reservation for every 5000 people. And the pace is increasing. Tesla expects about 1500-2000 Model S sold in Norway in 2013, but I believe that`s too low and solely a result of lack of deliveries .

In 2014 Tesla would be able to sell at least 4-5000 cars in Norway if they`re able to deliver.....

I believe 4-5000 is only possible in Norway by adding AWD to the feature list.

 

[PeterW]

I believe 4-5000 is only possible in Norway by adding AWD to the feature list.

I believe that AWD will be an available option by 2014, or at the same time as the Model X release.

- - - Updated - - -

Norway alone has about 1000 reservation holders as of 01-01-13 (based on previously stated numbers by norwegian Tesla reps and reservation pace).
With about 5 mill inhabitants that`s 1 reservation for every 5000 people. And the pace is increasing. Tesla expects about 1500-2000 Model S sold in Norway in 2013, but I believe that`s too low and solely a result of lack of deliveries .

In 2014 Tesla would be able to sell at least 4-5000 cars in Norway if they`re able to deliver.....

Looking further ahead; by the time Tesla releases its Gen III vehicles in Europe (say 2017-18), EVs will dominate the new car market in Norway. Norway will be the first country to see the real econonic benefits of EVs and the impact lower transport cost can have on an economy.

 

[derekt75]

How do incentives compare across the regions? For instance, in the US, there's that $7500 tax credit. What do other regions have?
I think in some Scandinavian countries (Denmark?) there's a harsh tax (> 100%) imposed on some cars. Does the Model S escape that? Also, I think some Scandinavian countries have very high gasoline taxes, right?

 

[AustinPowers]

How do incentives compare across the regions? For instance, in the US, there's that $7500 tax credit. What do other regions have?
I think in some Scandinavian countries (Denmark?) there's a harsh tax (> 100%) imposed on some cars. Does the Model S escape that? Also, I think some Scandinavian countries have very high gasoline taxes, right?

AFAIK, the Model S is exempt from all taxes in Norway and therfore an incredible bargain in that country, compared to premium ICE cars.

Here in Germany there is hardly any incentive to buy EV's. No tax credit, no tax exemption to speak of (ok, ten years no vehicle tax, but for many people that will amount to no more than 1.500 Euro - over a span of ten years that is). And electricity is very expensive here already (about 0.25 Euro per kW) and is said to rise even more drastically in the next few years.

 

[ChrisgG]

Reservations taken from gross reservation tally as of 01-01-13

US population 315 million/ 19983 reservations = 1 reservation for every 15763 people.

Even adjusting for downgrades (yes, I know not all are from the US)
315m/ (19983-3787)= 19449

Country(region)... Population(million)... Reservations... POP/Reservations
US...........................315.......................19983..........................15763
US (adjusted)............315.......................16196..........................19449
Canada......................35..........................824...........................42475
Hong Kong...................7.1........................130...........................54615
Europe..................800 (approx).................2914........................274536
Australia/NZ...............27.3..........................86.........................318023
UK............................63.2..........................95.........................665263

Looking at the map of tesla reservations Liechtenstein has 2
so that's

Liechtenstein 36500 2 18250

YAY we are at least 2nd. I there is one wich is not on that map we beat everyone haha

 

[sp4rk]

I don't see the UK faring well. Simply because the car is too big to fit the average size car park space.
Or am I being short sighted?

 

[Robert.Boston]

I did some country-specific analyses of reservations posted on the Wiki map I maintain. Results are posted HERE. The top ten countries (highest reservations per person) were (in order):

Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland, Netherlands, US, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, and Sweden.

Remember there are those 100 reservations in Iceland by one gentleman, who is planning on starting some car service with them. There could easily be all sorts of biases in this self-reported data, particularly regarding language.

 

[sp4rk]

Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland, Netherlands, US, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, and Sweden.

Remember there are those 100 reservations in Iceland by one gentleman, who is planning on starting some car service with them. There could easily be all sorts of biases in this self-reported data, particularly regarding language.

Very interested in this story ... do you have a link to it? Taxis? Limo service? Krona 12,900,000 gamble. Wow.

- - - Updated - - -

This just in ... the bloke from Iceland is trying to change his mind.

http://www.cnn.com/video/?hpt=hp_c1#/video/world/2013/01/04/tsr-endo-duct-taped-passenger.cnn

:cursing: :cursing: :crying:

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I did some country-specific analyses of reservations posted on the Wiki map I maintain. Results are posted HERE. The top ten countries (highest reservations per person) were (in order):

Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland, Netherlands, US, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, and Sweden.

Remember there are those 100 reservations in Iceland by one gentleman, who is planning on starting some car service with them. There could easily be all sorts of biases in this self-reported data, particularly regarding language.

Athlon Lease in The Netherlands has 150 cars on order!

Although I would hope environmental reasons are the main reason for buying a Model S (it is mine!), the strong performance in several small countries is partly caused by fiscal policies. Norway is the best example, where green tax laws make it the cheapest luxury sedan. It amazes me that a country which produces so much oil still supports EVs in such a big way.

In The Netherlands a Model S will be exempt from road taxes for several years, which saves about €80-100 per month. But the most important reason for the high number of reservations is that someone driving a Model S as company cars will not have to add a percentage to his income, avoiding higher taxes. If you drive a Mercedes E-class as a company car you have to add 25% of the value of the car to your income. The highest tax rate is 52%, so that means you could end up paying 52% of 25% of €50,000-€90,000 = €6,500 to €11,700 in extra taxes. Every year!

For a Toyota Prius you only have to add 14%, which already makes this a popular car. For a Chevy Volt/Opel Ampera it's 0%. And for a Model S too. That more than compensates for the high price of the car. I predict that at least 90% of all sales here will be company cars.

In 2014 the 0% rate for EVs will go to 7%. That's still a low tariff, but ofcourse a lot of people would like to get their car in 2013. So the Dutch are anxiously following the ramp-up in production and predicted start of deliveries in Europe. Reserving a Model S now is cutting it close, as it could take more than a year before the car gets delivered. Receiving the car after January 1st, 2014 means paying an extra €12,000 in taxes for a typical lease period of 4 years.

 

[Phil Spain]

Would you have some numbers for Spain ? You know this little country with Flamenco and Paella ? Thanks in advance