Tesla owner configurations begin

[ploon94]

Atlanta, GA. S owner x2. Reservation online within a minute. Estimator said Nov-Jan the whole time. I didn't believe it when December went by and nothing...then 4 Jan at 1:26pm ET I got the email to configure with 4 week delivery. Ordered yesterday 5 Jan. Visited local sales center and they said their phone rang off the hook on the 4th with people getting reservation emails wanting to schedule test drives. (lol) Not sure any of this helps with any patterns, just to say they are sending invites. My next thing is to find a decent price for one of these S's in the next few weeks.

 

[azred]

His example date should have been 01/01/18 not 12/31/17

As to how it would be in effect until 6/30/18, that is because the full credit lasts 2 quarters aka 6 months from the beginning of the quarter it was triggered in. Of course his example was off by one day in addition to the year you noticed.

If the 200,000th happens on the last day of the year that starts the clock the same as if it was on Oct 1st (91 days prior in a 92 day quarter). Anything between Oct 1 and Dec 31 inclusive is the same for the purpose of the phase out trigger. So .

If it had actually triggered on Dec 2017 (which it didn't see quote below), it would have ended the full credit on March 31st not June 30th.



Since 2017 ended on 161,357 Teslas in the US we have either Q1 2018 or Q2 2018 as likely trigger quarters. See the quote above for full details.

161,357. That's sounds very precise, yet I don't recall Tesla has ever announced US sales separate from total sales, have they? I know Electrek makes estimates but so have several people for Model 3 deliveries by region and those estimates have proven worthless.

 

[dhanson865]

161,357. That's sounds very precise, yet I don't recall Tesla has ever announced US sales separate from total sales, have they? I know Electrek makes estimates but so have several people for Model 3 deliveries by region and those estimates have proven worthless.

My totals are from insideevs.com Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

You may take them as worthless if you like, afaik they are the closest thing to accurate this side of Tesla's internal database. You know, the one that Tesla hasn't shared with the rest of us.

I'm sure any source you find other than Tesla is off by a bit. In this case I'd say the margin for error is something like +- 0.5%? Maybe a few hundred cars plus or minus vs 161,357.

I also expect Tesla to schedule US vs Canada and Rest of the World near the 200,000 mark to try and put the 200,000th US car as near the beginning of a quarter as they can. As in:

* If the 200,000 is estimated to fall within the last 20 days of a quarter delay, reroute cars to Canda
* If the 200,000 would fall within the first 70 days of a quarter accelerate production as much as possible, delay sending cars outside the US or just carry on whatever the plan would be otherwise as a long delay isn't worth the cost.

Assuming Tesla adjusts schedule at all to address this then any minor inaccuracy in the scorecard will be moot. It's not a linear ramp anyway so even if the scorecard is accurate down to the last car it doesn't predict the future.

 

[Shygar]

161,357. That's sounds very precise, yet I don't recall Tesla has ever announced US sales separate from total sales, have they? I know Electrek makes estimates but so have several people for Model 3 deliveries by region and those estimates have proven worthless.

Tesla should know exactly how many they delivered in the US so they can plan to cross the line at the beginning of a quarter

 

[des16]

His example date should have been 01/01/18 not 12/31/17

As to how it would be in effect until 6/30/18, that is because the full credit lasts 2 quarters aka 6 months from the beginning of the quarter it was triggered in. Of course his example was off by one day in addition to the year you noticed.

If the 200,000th happens on the last day of the year that starts the clock the same as if it was on Oct 1st (91 days prior in a 92 day quarter). Anything between Oct 1 and Dec 31 inclusive is the same for the purpose of the phase out trigger. So .

If it had actually triggered on Dec 2017 (which it didn't see quote below), it would have ended the full credit on March 31st not June 30th.



Since 2017 ended on 161,357 Teslas in the US we have either Q1 2018 or Q2 2018 as likely trigger quarters. See the quote above for full details.

Thanks very much for the clarification. It's very useful since I was considering waiting for the dual motor, but, it's pretty clear that this would be a very high risk strategy in terms of not getting the full tax credit given that delivery would not be until the 4th quarter of 2018. I am a line waiter, but not an owner.

 

[azred]

Tesla should know exactly how many they delivered in the US so they can plan to cross the line at the beginning of a quarter

Of course they know but no one else knows, including the writers at the EV website that posts the numbers. That's why I questioned the precise number 161,537 posted above. It could be somewhat accurate but also could be off by many thousands.

 

[tomas]

Tesla should know exactly how many they delivered in the US so they can plan to cross the line at the beginning of a quarter

Sure they know exactly what they delivered. What they DON’T know is going forward run rates. So still hard to project. I’m sure tax credit factors in their plans, but not the only factor.

 

[pdxgibby]

Not sure if this has been pointed out yet, but it appears that batches of invites are sent out on Thursday/Friday.

12/7
12/14
12/21 (some people received invites on 12/22)
1/4

 

[mcghee33]

Not sure if this has been pointed out yet, but it appears that batches of invites are sent out on Thursday/Friday.

12/7
12/14
12/21 (some people received invites on 12/22)
1/4

I do NOT think that this has been pointed out yet. Well done! and thank you!

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

I do NOT think that this has been pointed out yet. Well done! and thank you!

You're missing 12/28. Get your list ready for 1/11

 

[pdxgibby]

I didn't miss 12/28. There were no invitations sent out on 12/28. I did miss 11/21, though, which is a Wednesday.

Model 3 Invites

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

I didn't miss 12/28. There were no invitations sent out on 12/28. I did miss 11/21, though, which is a Wednesday.

Model 3 Invites

i remember someone definitely said they got invited on 12/28 on tmc. may be a one off that didn't enter info into spreadsheet.

 

[Shygar]

I didn't miss 12/28. There were no invitations sent out on 12/28. I did miss 11/21, though, which is a Wednesday.

Model 3 Invites

11/21 was almost the end of that week. 2 days later was Thanksgiving

 

[weccman]

Not sure if this has been pointed out yet, but it appears that batches of invites are sent out on Thursday/Friday.

12/7
12/14
12/21 (some people received invites on 12/22)
1/4

Mine arrived on Friday 12/15.

 

[pdxgibby]

This is all very interesting. I wonder if it's a Thursday/Friday thing. If so, then tomorrow we may see some more invites going out. My hunch is that they will be west coast only.

 

[VIKING26]

I noticed the Thursday / Friday trend as well. Maybe a batch goes out on Thursday and all of the delays get sent back out the following day. Just a guess.

 

[pdxgibby]

Zero reported invites sent out yesterday, 1/11. Next expected invite day will be Thursday, 1/18.

 

[HumanGenome]

Today is delivery day! Vin 3454 in Silver/19" woohoo!

 

[AZatul]

Zero reported invites sent out yesterday, 1/11. Next expected invite day will be Thursday, 1/18.

It’s disappointing. Was expecting to see notices of new invites yesterday or today but haven’t seen anything on TMC or Twitter.

You would think if they are really producing 1000 per week, invites would need to go out.

 

[SpiceWare]

You would think if they are really producing 1000 per week, invites would need to go out.

I've worked at manufacturing companies in the past, seems likely it's due to all the days people get off over Xmas & New Years.