Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla to make "exciting announcement on Thursday" (correction Tuesday)

What will Elon's "exciting announcement" be?


  • Total voters
    257
  • Poll closed .
This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
You should leave the tax talk to the pros.
Easy cowboy. Nobody is dispensing tax advice here. We're all just speculating. Whether Elon would owe tax or not on this hypothetical transaction is between him and his accountant.

The important aspect in regards to this thread is actually just whether or not he will put money into Tesla via an option exercise. Clearly by your last sentence, you don't think that's the case, and that's fine, but we can surely agree to disagree. IANAL, but I don't see why the SEC (or whoever) would care if all he's doing is buying stock. If they implied he would be buying, then made a sale after the price went up, then sure, I think they'd be upset (rightfully so), but what we're talking about here (again, only hypothetically) is a transaction whose price is unrelated to the current market price of the stock.

P.S. If I've read too much into your tone/comment, and gotten unnecessarily defensive, I apologize. I do appreciate your insight into the different types of options, and how they do/don't relate to AMT and/or other tax rules.
 
WSJ / MarketWatch Article on Elon's "Really exciting" Tweet.

Wall Street Journal / MarketWatch tesla-stock-jumps-after-elon-musk-tweets-big-plans/

Care to restore balance to comments like these?

Randy Merrell 6 hours ago
Tesla's will now come standard with a pair of gloves in the glove box,for cold days when you can't use the heater.

richard conner 4 hours ago
@Randy Merrell How about including along with those gloves a gun to shoot yourself after the last- straw freeway breakdown during rush hour? Might be better than life with a Tesla.
 
You should leave the tax talk to the pros. Some points of clarification on ISOs, NQSOs, and AMT: Elon is almost certainly not going to be in AMT with his income level. Besides, an exec cannot receive more than $100K in ISO value at the date of grant so an ISO exercise would likely be a small number for him. Non-qualified options (NQSOs), which are unlimited in the amount that can be received, don't carry an AMT preference like ISOs do. The difference between a NQSO's exercise price and FMV on the exercise date is taxable as compensation in the year of exercise and goes on the W-2.

An option exercise is not the subject of the announcement. Tweeting about a NQSO exercise of a public company would probably get him in hot water.

Beavis, I don't recall claiming I was a tax expert. jvonbokel asked a question about how one could exercise options and still have a tax liability and I gave an explanation and example. Since the question was around buy and hold, I gave an ISO example. My only mistake was using Elon's numbers as the example, since I certainly don't know his personal finances, and you are correct his options are most likely NQSOs.

Regardless, I still stand by my theory, as the type of option and tax liability are not relevant. He has a very large option grant that is fully vested or will be very soon (after 10k vehicles are produced). Exercising those options is a straight-forward way for him to put a large amount of money into the company, without a secondary offering, etc.

Producing 10k cars ahead of schedule is significant and worthy of an announcement. Adding $45M to Tesla Motor's cash reserves via an option exercise is significant (a 25% increase in cash) and certainly worthy of an announcement as well.
 
Last edited:
I wasn't being serious with that first sentence. I was trying to point out the confusing complexity and was clumsy with it. Anyway, the SEC wouldn't like him tweeting about something like that. So my vote is that he is paying off his bet and contributing the $ to the charity of his choice, as someone else guessed.
 
Sorry, IANAL = I Am Not A Lawyer.

Ohh, Ok. Excuse my English, ESL here

- - - Updated - - -

Call me gullible. But what is this box you show? An accessory or just a box!?

This is reserve batteries for small businesses distributed by SolarCity. For each they sell they fill out applications for government grants, that is how it is known that they sell those. Let me find a link.

- - - Updated - - -

Remember this link from a year ago, they probably sold many many hundreds, if not thousands units:)
http://gigaom.com/2012/04/17/tesla-solarcity-quietly-selling-building-battery-projects/
 
That would be above the target rate of 400/week. They produced 3,100 vehicles in 2012. Assuming 400 vehicles/week and 14 weeks in the quarter that would be 5,600 vehicles so far in 2013 at their projected rate for a total of 8,700 vehicles produced.

Given 52 weeks in a year, it's safer to assume 13 weeks in a quarter ;-) However your point is even more true. 3100 in 2012 + 5200 in Q1 = 8300 cars produced.
 
Knowing Elon's past tweets, he described the model x as not being blah... If that says something! Very much exciting is a BIG DEAL. Also without a peep from Tesla I'm now assuming this is not a cooperate thing, this is some big personal investment, he is very much excited about gen3 perhaps he has funded a rogue part of Teslas engineers and has designed it with franz and funded the secret program.... Ok this is getting out of hand, but my point is that this is not superchargers or anything anticipated. This a personallyElon tesla related fund. Maybe an ad campaign- seems not very exciting,
Then again my opinion is worth nothing
 
Thanks for catching my rather obvious error. :redface: I knew I shouldn't have been doing MS excel right before bed time...

I modified an existing sheet that had some of this data in it. Turns out weeknum(3/31/13) is 14, because it is the start of week 14. :)

Also, the first week in January was a week off for the factory. The per-quarter goal, mentioned in the last conference call, was 4,500.

If they produced 12 * 400, this would be 4,800, still more than 4,500.

If not only the delivery rate, but also the production rate increased to 500, 3 weeks ago, it would be 8 * 400 + 4 * 500 = 5,200.

(Elon recently tweeted "Yep" in response to a question whether Tesla is *producing* 500/week, but not 100% sure whether he was paying attention to the exact wording.)
 
Last edited:
Not sure what the rules are relative to self-dealing in the corporate world, but here is what seems obvious to me. His "mouth" has been used on many occasions to tout the national Supercharger network. And that same "mouth" has tried to justify the infrastructure as being cost neutral due to it's solar panel contributions to the grid. My general sense is that there has been a cynical reaction to both of these ideas. But what if Elon personally, along with Solar City corporately, underwrote some grouping of Superchargers on a for-profit basis. A joint venture with Tesla licensing the technology. Perhaps even creating a blueprint for future joint ventures with others. Would seem to be a lot of winners and no losers. Well maybe Exxon.
 
3100 in 2012 + 5200 in Q1 = 8300 cars produced.

According to this post, VIN P08900 is coming up soon. Not sure how close to sequentially VINs come off the line, but I'd bet VIN P09000 will be produced by end of quarter. Whether they'll be delivered (or direct-shipped on trucks) by Easter Sunday is another good question. I'd easily take the under on Elon getting his options vested by April 15th.
 
I think it could just be the revealing of a bunch of new superchargers.

"Am going to put my money where my mouth is in v major way."

Elon representing Tesla, is saying he is putting Tesla money to do what he promised - build superchargers across the US within 2 years.
 
Sorry, IANAL = I Am Not A Lawyer.

Pity. I was hoping it was suppositories made by Apple.

We know that Elon has commented that he doesn't want to die in an impact crater on Mars but if he's serious about living out his last years there, he probably doesn't want to die from hypothermia either. If he's going to colonise other planets with more than just a few habitat capsules then a new energy source is vital. Long term colonisation can't happen with solar panels or batteries.

Plus, Fusion would be kinda handy down here too.

IronMan_Arc_Reactor_Heart_by_TimDrakeRobin.jpg
 
Last edited:
Pity. I was hoping it was suppositories made by Apple.

We know that Elon has commented that he doesn't want to die in an impact crater on Mars but if he's serious about living out his last years there, he probably doesn't want to die from hypothermia either. If he's going to colonise other planets with more than just a few habitat capsules then a new energy source is vital. Long term colonisation can't happen with solar panels or batteries.

Plus, Fusion would be kinda handy down here too.

Actually, I believe the plan is to terraform and the process of changing the atmosphere would raise the temperature.

You can just use solar panels and batteries. After all, it's been estimated that just by putting solar panels on all residential roofs it'd meet 2/3 of USA electricity demand and that current demand includes a lot of inefficiency. Now consider that a colony would be starting from scratch and that means you'd be able to use best practice and you'd dramatically cut energy demand.

Plus, Mars has much lower gravity which would make getting around a lot easier. ;)
 
Last edited:
Anyone know how much money he has? I mean, in liquid funds? I imagine it isn't a lot considering the salary he makes at his companies. I wonder what the number is, $50 million? $100 million? That would help us figure out how much he is likely to risk on whatever this announcement is. And it could possibly eliminate some of these theories (he certainly isn't privately funding Gen III on $5 million).