Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

Food delivery is another killer app for autonomous cars. Imagine a van pulling up with heated compartments in the side with your McDonalds on a hungover Sunday morning. The success of companies like door dash and Uber eats will be fleeting.

I'll go one further.
Imagine any fast food/pizza/chinese takeout buying a fleet of Cyber chuckwagons.
Take McD's. All the Burgers are cooked at the store... but the fries cook on the way to your house in a little robot fryer..or a semi air fryer. And then drop into your box before the vehicle stops.

 

[mickle]

I'd also like to thank everyone that discussed options over the last week or two, especially the hints that it was a good time to pick up some cheap calls. Only my second time playing them, but I got a few the day before and after the S&P announcement that are doing nicely.

 

[EVortex]

Yes, used it whenever I was looking for a used vehicle (their specialty, and tesla's are available - from used car dealerships). They're a competitor to edmund's service and cars.com. It's a site that pits one dealership against another, exactly the competitive environment that the dealerships tout as the purpose of protecting the dealership model. So I wouldn't care that tesla's new cars aren't available there. The consumers who use truecar.com don't overlap with those who go to tesla.com, so no competitive issue to address.

Thanks for pointing out about used cars through used car dealers. Agree, Tesla does not need them or other similar third party sales approach.

 

[jerry33]

Not hard. The car knows time of day, day of week, or if it’s a national holiday. It even knows what year it is. I know, shocker.

The car can read signs.

Problem solved.

It just has to be able to read the small print with the times. Also most school zones have a blinking light when the school zone is in effect. That should be a no-brainer to accomplish.

 

[GBleck]

The 93605 $20 puts expiring are funny as hell.

 

[mickificki]

Lots of folks buying LEAPS right now. A couple of data points that might help guide some future decisions...

Case-study 1:

September 2019, I bought 10x Jan 21 $650's, total premium $1000. I sold these in two tranches, 5 in January this year for $36 per contract - so 36x profit and $18k cash. The rest I offloaded during the big run-up beginning of February for $220 per contract, 220x and $110k cash.

Total $128k from a $1000 investment - not bad, eh? Well yes, but if I still held them now, $1.8m

Case-study 2:

Towards the bottom of the C19 dip I converted 100 shares to cash - around $45k, and bought 10x June 22 $1400. Sold them two weeks later for $120k - so nearly 3x profit in two weeks, niiiiice!

Value today, $1.4m

Now OK, I was really fresh to LEAPS back then and I've managed to trade this initial $1000 up to $1m during the split and it's still around $900k now, mostly in other LEAPS I acquired in the meantime, but my point is, think carefully about when you sell.

OT: Newbie to options thread...can someone send me a link to it on TMC? I know there's a thread but can't seem to locate? Thanks...

 

[Sudre]

Turning focus to next week for those that want to trade weeklies....

Thursday had next weeks OI looking pretty tame up here in what was the nose bleed section. Kind of devoid on Puts and the 500 strikes for Calls was topping my chart that I cut off at 12,000oi. This was grabbed on Thursday so it was how the OI looked for the action that happened on Wednesday.

Now for the fun to see directions of future prediction. Look at today's screen grab of the action that happened yesterday. Puts for next weeks OI are stepping up and those nose bleed Calls with a strike of $500 are being bought back. My chart is the same size but the whole format had to change since the data was presented on a different scale. 12000 is still the top. $440 and $630 are the bounds.

 

[lafrisbee]

Looking back....
an $85 pop since the close on Monday (SP announcement). Up over twenty bucks a day per share. I could live on that.
My greedy ass is already looking forward to next week.

 

[Toolsmack]

I’ve changed opinion today to think that there was no ‘accumulator’ battling MM earlier this week. I don’t see a reason to let up on Friday if that was the case. Nobody in the market is that friendly with an opposition party.

That leads me to think the battle for price earlier this week was just MM reacting to current week option buying. Once that option buying started to slow on Thursday, the hedging slows down and the volume disappears.

But that is all good because there will have to be an accumulator soon to add on top of weekly call buying

 

[Krugerrand]

Ya, thanks Krugerrand. I've only been in for 3 years and am valiantly resisting the urge to make short/medium term bets by going long on calls/leaps. I just keep telling myself to think about where the stock will be in 5-10 years and that will be more than enough for me and my family.

One thing I am very happy about (which goes against my conservative nature) is my decision to take a much-less-diversified-than-recommended position in Tesla stock. Unfortunately, this has been a recent move. But now, pretty much 100% of newly available funds go towards more Tesla stock. No question in my mind that Tesla is the best risk/reward opportunity out there.

It’s human nature to be tempted by the ‘get rich quick’ scheme, even though the scheme of TSLA is for real.

Having been here for 8 years, I’ve seen dozens and dozens of ‘options’ people come and go. Yes, some made out like bandits. Some did ok or broke even. Most at some point got nailed, some really badly. Like personal bankruptcy bad.

My observations are this: if you want to be successful at options

1. you need a teacher; a person with a long record of success, a book, a course
2. you need to be able to devote significant time to watching the stock and options market on a daily basis; find patterns, be able to respond immediately when unexpected things happen, continuously learn, adapt, adjust
3. you need to have a healthy relationship with money; this means you can’t be married to money nor put more importance into it than it deserves — hint it deserves way less than most people give it
4. you need to have some natural talent, intelligence, intuition, whathaveyou to be good

That’s way more work than I have ever had the desire to devote to trying to make money. Way easier to do what you love and have a passion for - that will attract goodness and things like money to you.

Froo-froo session closed.

 

[ggr]

OT: Newbie to options thread...can someone send me a link to it on TMC? I know there's a thread but can't seem to locate? Thanks...

Advanced TSLA Options Trading

 

[dc_h]

The 93605 $20 puts expiring are funny as hell.

Sorry Gordon and Mark.

 

[LTC_RRR]

Making the problem insurmountable because the car doesn’t know the time of day, can’t identify when the school crossing signs are flashing or not, there’s no way for counties or cities to make road changes in the future that are more conducive and thoughtful in terms of FSD vehicles —

That you can’t imagine a solution doesn’t mean it’s something that can’t be resolved, perhaps easily. Roundabouts are way more challenging to negotiate than school zones.

I want to know how they’re going to teach it to make toast. Now that’s something to fret over.

I agree the flashing lights will work for FSD. Many of the school zones have only text on the sign that reads like "During the hours of ...... when school is in session" or smilar - i.e., no flashing lights. Some sort of text reading and interpretation would be needed.
Not arguing that it cannot be done. Am arguing that it must be done, especially since the non-existent PR department isn't around to explain away the headlines when a FSD Tesla has its first unfortunate encounter with a student in a school zone.

Making toast is simple. Just a little tweak to the battery management system.

 

[traxila]

OK call it!

490, 495 or 500 close?

I am going with 495.

 

[gabeincal]

Not ready for Robotaxi until it figures out how to handle school zones!

Because all the great human drivers who are speeding through school zones by 50% or more, not yielding for pedestrians or passing in the turning lane are much better...?

 

[Christine69420]

OK call it!

490, 495 or 500 close?

I am going with 495.

494.6942

 

[woodisgood]

OK call it!

490, 495 or 500 close?

I am going with 495.

Only 45 minutes out so 495 does seem like the easy call.

 

[Papafox]

We're getting into that interesting time on a Friday afternoon when traders start buying TSLA for a hoped-for Monday morning pop. That buying pressure is offset by the big dog option sellers working to ensure that TSLA remains below 500 for the close. Grabbing some popcorn to pop.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

490, 495 or 500 close?

I'm currently crunching the numbers and should have a prediction ready shortly after the market closes

 

[ggr]

We're getting into that interesting time on a Friday afternoon when traders start buying TSLA for a hoped-for Monday morning pop. That buying pressure is offset by the big dog option sellers working to ensure that TSLA remains below 500 for the close. Grabbing some popcorn to pop.

And, the markets just turned south as Tesla was starting to climb... prediction on a day like today is a mug's game.