Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Tesla should offer special colors or other visual differentiation + coating at a premium. This would boost margins and cater to buyers who want something different. When simply having a Tesla was unique, it wasn't necessary but there's so many M3s here and they have such a limited palette.

They actually did this at first, but even with the really expensive custom colour option ($10K if I recall correctly), they found it was better to not have it because it slowed production down too much. It's easy and economical to do a wrap after delivery if you wish for a different colour. Even if Tesla offered one hundred colours, there would still be complaints about not having enough.

 

[Tslynk67]

Well, devil`s advocate here... If they say the Solar City board deceived the shareholders and didn`t share important details, technically they have a point. And if some of these board members had interest in both companies, the deception is even more sever. (Not that I say they did this, just speaking hypothetically).

But!

Even then, it does not make sense to me that any court would force action on a company ore their executive sin the interest of shareholders that would end up financially hurting the shareholders. I think it should be left to the shareholders to decide if they want to punish such board members and maybe replace them, or sue for damages - but only if the shareholder meeting says so.

In the 420 case, one could have argued (again, not agreeing...) that people who took a financial hit because of Musk`s tweets were also outside of the circle of shareholders so it is not an internal matter. Not in this case though.

Exactly. Perhaps their was some sleight-of-hand with the deal, but what's to be gained by pursuing that now? It's not like we can roll the whole thing back. I'd say that long term the SCTY deal has don't nothing to damage Tesla, hopefully with time it will benefit. So why do this?

 

[KarenRei]

The three realtime European countries this quarter (truncated after the last valid datapoint):

Q3 is now running 1821 vehicles over Q2 in these countries. It was 1426 over Q2 a week before the last valid datapoint. So it's not just beating Q2; the gap is growing.

 

[mongo]

Kinda of similar, but company provides the standard extended options. Customer gets more choices, without 3rd party.
Warranty of all colors should be the same and based on Providers Quality of Service.

Sorry, I wasn't clear. Once you have an additional color, all service centers are on the hook to provide color correct repair parts. Even in the case of insurance paid repairs, that increases supply chain logistics cost and repair time (along with cost to Tesla as an insurer) and thus premiums.
Tweet chain:
Twitter

Changing the palette is hell on service, because cars last for 20 years. Every color change has a long tail of hurt, especially for Model 3.

 

[KarenRei]

Tesla Inventory List - Find your next car shows US M3 inventory drop to 1300 from 2K plus for past week. (note M3 search is in beta ..)

? When I try it I see 851 cars. Settings: "USA" "Model 3" "Any Seats" "All Batteries" "All Colours" "All Décor" "Both (premium/non)" "Both (sunroof/glassroof"). No other checkboxen checked.

 

[Pras]

In the UK, AFAIK pretty much every new car is built to order, and the variety of paint options is usually pretty big. For a model S...the number of options is notably poor. These are $100k cars in many cases.

A £82k porsche 911 has 17 different paint options right now on their website.
A £38k audi has 11 standard colors and more 'audi exclusive' colors (whatever that means).
A mere £10k VW Up! has 8 color choices.

I don't understand why its so difficult to manage a great variety of colors. Surely in 2019 painting is not rocket science? why is it so hard for (for example) a company to make duplicate spare parts in 20 different colors for those body panels most likely damaged in an accident and keep them in each country? Is it really so expensive if a single location in the UK/Germany/US had 10x10 spare car door panels in a storage room?

Shipping a door panel from somewhere in the US to somewhere else in the US should not take months, or be catastrophically expensive with modern logistics planning.

genuinely curious as to why this is so difficult (both as an investor and someone who makes a video game about this stuff )

Just curious, does anyone change car buying decision based on color option? Non-Tesla: maybe, Tesla: maybe not.

I too would like to have more paint options, but I would not change my decision to switch from Tesla to say bmw 3/5 series just on that basis.

However, I agree that this will become an issue once Tesla has a true competition. But for now Tesla has time.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Well indeed, i cant see it hurting tesla SO FAR, but like I say, its techno geeks buying them now. We all know someone who when you ask them what car they have they say 'its a nice blue one'. Not everyone knows, or cares about the spec of a car, but everyone has an opinion on what color their car is.

We are in a bubble here of geeks, car-lovers and investors, we are not the average car buyer, especially at the lower-cost end. And as many people here have stated, EVEN if it cost a lot more, and EVEN if it made parts lower to get, there are definitely people out there who still want unusual colors. Those unusual colors are also free advertising because they get remarked upon.

 

[KarenRei]

we are not the average car buyer,

Tesla Roadster hits the roads: "Look, we're fine with <blank>, but we're not the average car buyer. When Tesla makes their next car, they're going to be dealing with the mainstream market, and they're not going to accept <blank>."

Models S and X hit the road: "Look, we're fine with <blank>, but we're not the average car buyer. When Tesla makes their next car, they're going to be dealing with the mainstream market, and they're not going to accept <blank>."

Model 3 hits the road: "Look, we're fine with <blank>, but we're not the average car buyer. When Tesla makes their next car, they're going to be dealing with the mainstream market, and they're not going to accept <blank>."

Wash, rinse, repeat.

 

[mrdoubleb]

The three realtime European countries this quarter (truncated after the last valid datapoint):
View attachment 458762

Q3 is now running 1821 vehicles over Q2 in these countries. It was 1426 over Q2 a week before the last valid datapoint. So it's not just beating Q2; the gap is growing.

Whole that is true, please be careful reading too much into that.

From these 3 countries, Spain is actually sort of in line with Q2 numbers, whereas Norway is down 35% compared to Q2. At the same time the Netherlands is up +140% over Q2 due to local tax changes coming up in Q1 2020. Hopefully we are not looking at another Denmark where demand completely died for a while after the tax changes. (Demand was pulled forward).

So the totals of these 3 look impressive, but don`t take them as indication of overall demand / deliveries.

However, overall, we have seen 25%+ growth in the first 2 months of the quarter in Europe and 10%+ in the US, so with the extra RHD deliveries taking off globally in September we should be heading towards successfully reaffirming EOY delivery goals.

 

[larmor]

Some place must be freezing over—just saw Tsla on CNBC premarket ticker... to CNBC’s credit it was only three times since it was green premarket...

 

[KarenRei]

Whole that is true, please be careful reading too much into that.

From these 3 countries, Spain is actually sort of in line with Q2 numbers, whereas Norway is down 35% compared to Q2. At the same time the Netherlands is up +140% over Q2 due to local tax changes coming up in Q1 2020. Hopefully we are not looking at another Denmark where demand completely died for a while after the tax changes. (Demand was pulled forward).

I've been doing TM3 curve fits** on Europe - the realtime countries to their realtime data and the non-realtime countries to their monthly data, QoQ (plus 2082 UK Aug (known), 3500 in Sep (est)). I get:

• 10589 NL+NO+ES
• 9519 non-UK other
• 5582 UK

Q3 = 25690 TM3
Q2 = 18399 TM3

** - I have two curve fit mechanisms at my disposal - linear (e.g. if Q2 was 200 at this point in the quarter, and ended at 400 (a difference of 2x), and Q3 is 300 at this point in the quarter, than the fit is to 300x2 = 600) and constant (e.g. if Q2 was 200 at this point, and ended at at 400 (a difference of 200 cars), and Q3 is at 300 now, then the fit is to 300+200 = 500). I'm using a 50/50 mix of the two fitting mechanisms (e.g., in the above case, the fit would be to 550).

As for Netherlands: if this is the sort of buying the Netherlands does the quarter before the quarter of a tax change, I can't imagine what they'll look like next quarter.

The simple fact is that markets fluctuate. Some will be good some quarters, others in other quarters. What matters is the overall trend. And the overall trend for EVs is up. Yes, there are surges - and they're followed by post surge lulls. But those post-surge lulls eventually restore to steady state. And steady-state grows significantly every year.

And yes, some countries like Netherlands may weaken their EV incentives. Others may strengthen them. For example, Germany is looking to strengthen theirs***. On the balance between weaker incentives in NL and stronger incentives in DE (a country with 5x the population, and a subpar EV adoption rate at present), let me be the first to say, "Ja, Dankeschön!"

And yes, added countries add surges - for example, the UK this quarter. But apparently, the UK's surge wasn't finished this quarter and will continue into the next, while meanwhile, Tesla expands further east in Q4. And Q1 adds part of the Balkans as well as Iceland. Each expansion doesn't just create a surge - it also adds more steady-state to the list post-surge.

*** - Germany plans to have a 40k EUR cutoff, again, trying to exclude Tesla. But even if Tesla doesn't pull one of the standard price-lowering tricks to qualify (such as eliminating features and making them available as post-purchase OTA options), Germany also plans to raise fuel prices, which is a powerful incentive in its own right. And by the time it takes force, Tesla's cheapest models should be well below that limit. That said, Germany is being somewhat of a laggard about its timeframe :Þ But this is of course just an example; any country can add incentives to increase its EV adoption rate, just like any country can remove theirs.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Well indeed, i cant see it hurting tesla SO FAR, but like I say, its techno geeks buying them now. We all know someone who when you ask them what car they have they say 'its a nice blue one'. Not everyone knows, or cares about the spec of a car, but everyone has an opinion on what color their car is.

We are in a bubble here of geeks, car-lovers and investors, we are not the average car buyer, especially at the lower-cost end. And as many people here have stated, EVEN if it cost a lot more, and EVEN if it made parts lower to get, there are definitely people out there who still want unusual colors. Those unusual colors are also free advertising because they get remarked upon.

Wow, thanks! I don't think I have ever been labeled a "techno-geek". And me, with not one technology course to his credit. I'm honored!

Dan

 

[tschmidty]

AP is not responsible for that function. That is done by Traffic-Aware Cruise Control (TACC) + Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB). They depend upon radar input, not on cameras like AP steering.

Check on this number, but I also believe that the AEB function is disabled above 50 mph (too many false positives).

Disagree, everyone who has used AP has experienced phantom braking or overly aggressive braking. For example, you are in the left lane and a car takes a right turn into the right lane and the car slows down. There are lots of instances of AP braking.

 

[HG Wells]

Remember, its production, production production.
There is no real inventory. Every car built gets sold.

We need to pay attention to the supply side.

Dam little info about production.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I've been doing TM3 curve fits** on Europe - the realtime countries to their realtime data and the non-realtime countries to their monthly data, QoQ (plus 2082 UK Aug (known), 3500 in Sep (est)). I get:

• 10589 TM3 NL+NO+ES
• 9519 non-UK other
• 5582 UK

Q3 = 25690 TM3
Q2 = 18399 TM3

** - I have two curve fit mechanisms at my disposal - linear (e.g. if Q2 was 200 at this point in the quarter, and ended at 400 (a difference of 2x), and Q3 is 300 at this point in the quarter, than the fit is to 300x2 = 600) and constant (e.g. if Q2 was 200 at this point, and ended at at 400 (a difference of 200 cars, and Q3 is at 300 now, then the fit is to 300+200 = 500). I'm using a 50/50 mix of the two fitting mechanisms (e.g., in the above case, the fit would be to 550).

As for Netherlands: if this is the sort of buying the Netherlands does the quarter before the quarter of a tax change, I can't imagine what they'll look like next quarter.

The simple fact is that markets fluctuate. Some will be good some quarters, other in other quarters. What matters is the overall trend. And the overall trend for EVs is up. Yes, there are surges - and they're followed by post surge lulls. But those post-surge lulls eventually restore to steady state. And steady-state grows significantly every year.

And yes, some countries like Netherlands may weaken their EV incentives. Others may strengthen them. For example, Germany is looking to strengthen theirs***. On the balance between weaker incentives in NL and stronger incentives in DE (a country with 5x the population, and a subpar EV adoption rate), let me be the first to say, "Ja, Dankeschön!"

And yes, added countries add surges - for example, the UK this quarter. But apparently, the UK's surge wasn't finished this quarter and will continue into the next, while meanwhile, Tesla expands further east in Q4. And Q1 adds part of the Balkans as well as Iceland. Each expansion doesn't just create a surge - it also adds more steady-state to the list post-surge.

*** - Germany plans to have a 40k EUR cutoff, again, trying to exclude Tesla. But even if Tesla doesn't pull one of the standard price-lowering tricks to qualify (such as eliminating features and making them available as post-purchase OTA options), Germany also plans to raise fuel prices, which is a powerful incentive in its own right. And by the time it takes force, Tesla's cheapest models should be well below that limit. That said, they're being somewhat laggards about their timeframe :Þ But this is of course just an example; any country can add incentives to increase its EV adoption rate, just like any country can remove theirs.

I am sure you are very well versed in statistical tools, I`m just trying to warn you of the old "garbage in, garbage out" rule. 2 out of the 3 real-time data sources (NO and NL) have pretty big question marks next to them this time around for my taste to be applied for the rest of Europe.

But we agree in that the quarter should be really good. The question is not if we will beat the minimal target (100k+ in both Q3 and Q4 to get to 360k), but rather by how much? The way things look right now, we could end up closer to the high end of the 2019 deliveries range (400k) then the market expects.

And yes, I`m sure they`ll start the "this is temporary demand due to Dutch taxes, etc" usual chant, but at some point this will get old if Tesla keeps defying expectations.

 

[KarenRei]

I am sure you are very well versed in statistical tools, I`m just trying to warn you of the old "garbage in, garbage out" rule. 2 out of the 3 real-time data sources (NO and NL) have pretty big question marks next to them this time around for my taste to be applied for the rest of Europe.

To repeat, since you missed it:

I've been doing TM3 curve fits** on Europe - the realtime countries to their realtime data and the non-realtime countries to their monthly data, QoQ (plus 2082 UK Aug (known), 3500 in Sep (est)).

Each country is considered for itself. What's happening in Norway, Netherlands, or Spain has no impact on the estimates for, say, Germany. The countries that lack realtime data are only considered using their monthly data. For example, Germany was 317 in May and 356 in August, was 1336 in June, so extrapolated to 1438 for September. By contrast, France was 321 in May and 214 in August, was 1097 in June, so extrapolated to 861 in September.

Overall, "non-UK other", at an estimated 9519, is down vs. Q2, where it was 10135.

 

[JusRelax]

I am sure you are very well versed in statistical tools, I`m just trying to warn you of the old "garbage in, garbage out" rule. 2 out of the 3 real-time data sources (NO and NL) have pretty big question marks next to them this time around for my taste to be applied for the rest of Europe.

But we agree in that the quarter should be really good. The question is not if we will beat the minimal target (100k+ in both Q3 and Q4 to get to 360k), but rather by how much? The way things look right now, we could end up closer to the high end of the 2019 deliveries range (400k) then the market expects.

And yes, I`m sure they`ll start the "this is temporary demand due to Dutch taxes, etc" usual chant, but at some point this will get old if Tesla keeps defying expectations.

I don't know where you're getting these numbers. the agreed upon estimates in this very subforum last week were 78k-82k!

*nudge*

 

[JRP3]

Model Y basically is a stretched Model 3.

Is it? Do we have wheel base and over all length dimensions?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Whole that is true, please be careful reading too much into that.

From these 3 countries, Spain is actually sort of in line with Q2 numbers, whereas Norway is down 35% compared to Q2. At the same time the Netherlands is up +140% over Q2 due to local tax changes coming up in Q1 2020. Hopefully we are not looking at another Denmark where demand completely died for a while after the tax changes. (Demand was pulled forward).

So the totals of these 3 look impressive, but don`t take them as indication of overall demand / deliveries.

However, overall, we have seen 25%+ growth in the first 2 months of the quarter in Europe and 10%+ in the US, so with the extra RHD deliveries taking off globally in September we should be heading towards successfully reaffirming EOY delivery goals.

I’m kinda getting the impression that Canada is down as well. Not sure how that plays into things.

 

[EVMeister]

Well indeed, i cant see it hurting tesla SO FAR, but like I say, its techno geeks buying them now.

Wow, thanks! I don't think I have ever been labeled a "techno-geek". And me, with not one technology course to his credit. I'm honored!

Dan

I don't agree that it's only "techno geeks" ordering Teslas. My folks just ordered one, they're far from techno geeks. I also saw a dude who must've been in his 70s or 80s driving around in a Model S the other day. Maybe it was his son's car? But I doubt it. They appeal to some because they're simply better vehicles than others, even if you aren't one who loves and understands the technology within.