Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ProfTournesol]

Ok, update from Tesla the Netherlands
- Tesla Tilburg is "closed" but deliveries continue "Chinese Style, with a no touch handover and desinfection" one on one deliveries.
- Most employees work from home (getting paid, yes Dana Hull they are getting paid and do their work. There is no need to be at the office to get work done).
- There are still reports from French customers that have their car delivered (at home, China style) but the amount is less than a week before. Somebody can fill me in on the real numbers? Still looking for an API to get registration data....
- Hiring of new employees continues!! (very important one! as some other companies started to lay off people, and having not enough employees is still a large constraint on the company).
- Oslo (Norway) all non essential employees working from home, but some deliveries still going on (also Chinese Style?)
- Germany, no info.
- Zeebrugge, still activity in distribution.

Expect some Q1 impact, but it seems less than expected before (week ago).

 

[KarenRei]

Musk is an absolute idiot on this. The Board needs to make him stop saying this *sugar*. The so called “panic” is necessary to stop the spread of the virus.

Fear and Panic are the twin sons of Chaos.

Fear rides into the field carrying a battle flag. He beats ploughshares to swords. Complacency is struck down in his sleep by Fear; his reign comes to an end. When Fear approaches, Action rallies to his side with burning resolve. Only through his presence can Crisis be defeated. Fear rides away at the end of winter, heralding the coming spring.

Panic slinks in, in the shadow of his brother. He spreads false rumours and incites the masses. He encourages a man to abandon his brother and sister, and think only of himself. Panic feasts from his seed corn. Panic is an ally of Crisis, disguised in the cloak of Action. The grass Panic treads on withers under his footsteps.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Macros have turned south again. There was a circuit breaker upwards last night, but DJIA futures are red again. European markets moved from solidly up to a few percent down in two hours' time. Volatile times. TSLA premarket still hanging in there, around yesterday's closing price.

 

[avoigt]

Ok, update from Tesla the Netherlands
- Tesla Tilburg is "closed" but deliveries continue "Chinese Style, with a no touch handover and desinfection" one on one deliveries.
- Most employees work from home (getting paid, yes Dana Hull they are getting paid and do their work. There is no need to be at the office to get work done).
- There are still reports from French customers that have their car delivered (at home, China style) but the amount is less than a week before. Somebody can fill me in on the real numbers? Still looking for an API to get registration data....
- Hiring of new employees continues!! (very important one! as some other companies started to lay off people, and having not enough employees is still a large constraint on the company).
- Oslo (Norway) all non essential employees working from home, but some deliveries still going on (also Chinese Style?)
- Germany, no info.
- Zeebrugge, still activity in distribution.

Expect some Q1 impact, but it seems less than expected before (week ago).

Germany has done deliveries until today. From Munich I heard they stop deliveries from 1 source (need to confirm) but Neuss and other seem to continue in the hands off style where people pick paper and car on their own and all the rest will be done at a later point in time.

No real numbers for France available.

Another advantage for Tesla. All other auto manufacturers just can't deliver the vehicle without personal contact but Tesla can. I believe this will definitely have a negative impact on deliveries in Q1 and Q2 but it ought to be short term and people will wait for a later time to get their car.

 

[WarpedOne]

>> where people pick paper

What paper?
I haven't received or touched a single piece of paper when I got my M3.
I've signed on their smartphone, got the cards and drew off.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Germany has done deliveries until today. From Munich I heard they stop deliveries from 1 source (need to confirm) but Neuss and other seem to continue in the hands off style where people pick paper and car on their own and all the rest will be done at a later point in time.

No real numbers for France available.

Another advantage for Tesla. All other auto manufacturers just can't deliver the vehicle without personal contact but Tesla can. I believe this will definitely have a negative impact on deliveries in Q1 and Q2 but it ought to be short term and people will wait for a later time to get their car.

Yes, all this will have a negative impact on Tesla SP, but it will have a MUCH larger impact on ALL the other car companies. Thus probably Tesla stock will continue dropping in the near term (few weeks, few months), but the SPs of other car companies will drop more. After a few months, Tesla SP should again take off, while the other ones will take off much slower - and only of course if they do not go bankrupt in the next year or two (quite likely now for several OEMs unless there are some major government bailouts).

 

[KarenRei]

>> where people pick paper

What paper?
I haven't received or touched a single piece of paper when I got my M3.
I've signed on their smartphone, got the cards and drew off.

When I just got mine, here's the things I had to touch:

• The door of the building
• The car
• The smartphone** of the manager to confirm the purchase

There were bottles of hand sanitizer on-hand, and staff seemed well aware of the importance of proper sanitation. Our local Tesla owners group collected money to buy them all a ton of candy and pastries (I washed my hands before and after shopping), and when we presented them, one guy said he was so happy he wanted to hug me or at least give me a high-five, "But can't because of the virus!", so we elbow-bumped instead

** My memory is that it was a smartphone, but it might have been a tablet. Either way, something with a touchscreen, which led to a really ugly mockery of my signature when I had to sign with it, since I'm not used to drawing my signature with a finger

 

[ProfTournesol]

Another advantage for Tesla. All other auto manufacturers just can't deliver the vehicle without personal contact but Tesla can. I believe this will definitely have a negative impact on deliveries in Q1 and Q2 but it ought to be short term and people will wait for a later time to get their car.

This is a big advantage, as most dealers in NL are closed. They cannot sell and cannot deliver. Even for some providing service is difficult. they have to keep their shop open for 1 or 2 cars a days. We've seen some bankrupt dealerships before the crisis, expect some new ones in the next few months.

(my opinion) It's difficult to point where the botom is, but I expect the botom to be arond 320-340. Some guessing, but also sentiment on the market. If there is no total collaps, but I won't expect that (no value in this whatsoever). If we reach te bottom before 31th I expect it to be arond that number, IF the bottom is after 31th, I expect the bottom to be higher because of the Q1 numbers. I'm not an optimist in the Q1 numbers, but they will be way way way better than any competitor! (go outside and check te parkinglots of the dealerships.... alone )

 

[aubreymcfato]

Ok, update from Tesla the Netherlands
- Tesla Tilburg is "closed" but deliveries continue "Chinese Style, with a no touch handover and desinfection" one on one deliveries.
- Most employees work from home (getting paid, yes Dana Hull they are getting paid and do their work. There is no need to be at the office to get work done).
- There are still reports from French customers that have their car delivered (at home, China style) but the amount is less than a week before. Somebody can fill me in on the real numbers? Still looking for an API to get registration data....
- Hiring of new employees continues!! (very important one! as some other companies started to lay off people, and having not enough employees is still a large constraint on the company).
- Oslo (Norway) all non essential employees working from home, but some deliveries still going on (also Chinese Style?)
- Germany, no info.
- Zeebrugge, still activity in distribution.

Expect some Q1 impact, but it seems less than expected before (week ago).

This is the most positive news I've read in this forum so far.

FWIW, I still think most US-based users of this forum still *don't get it*, but it's ok, things like this are hard to grasp at first. Maybe I'm wrong, but right now it's just a sad replay with a month delay of what I've seen here.

If Elon is letting workers work remotely and getting paid, that's *a lot*. Less people in the plants or shops, the better.
We hope this is enough, but remember that the Bergamo area was the hard-working region that dragged its feet for the shutdown, before realizing the virus was still spreading a lot. They are now in the worst position, all the horror stories you hear from Italy are from there.
You don't ever f**k with an exponential, and Elon should be the first to understand that.

Also: some business still go here in Italy, it depends by the city or region.
The point is to let just the bare minimum workers go to work, and let everyone else stay at home. With all the software part, Tesla may be in a better position than all the other automakers. Hell, this could even strenghten their moat.

Another thing Elon could do is to provide the test for all his workers, and pay a sick leave for those who test positive: this would demonstrate the public they are serious about workers safety, and would actually let them stay open.
Remember that if the numbers keep rising politics steps in and just shuts down everything. This is what you want to avoid. Be safe, be prudent, be rational, and carry on.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Elon Musk says 'coronavirus panic is worse than virus itself' in email to Tesla employees - Electrek

Musk is an absolute idiot on this. The Board needs to make him stop saying this *sugar*. The so called “panic” is necessary to stop the spread of the virus. I don’t understand how someone has smart as him on certain issues can miss this blatant fact.

pan·ic
/ˈpanik/
noun

1. sudden uncontrollable fear or anxiety, often causing wildly unthinking behavior.
   
   
   Nooo, I think this is something to be avoided at all costs.

 

[ProfTournesol]

Model 3 registrations in NL continue to increase (china style deliveries)
2020-03-16 - 125
2020-03-13 - 75
2020-03-12 - 106
2020-03-11 - 62

(all numbers are higher then same day 2019)
https://opendata.rdw.nl/Voertuigen/Tesla-Model-3-delivery-NL/76t3-9ba8

 

[Ellec]

Whats the thinking of going to cash then waiting a few months to get back in much lower?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Contactless car shopping and buying should be publicized. If at Tesla should have an advertisement / promotion it seems now. At least a twitter video.

... and the simple fact that they don't is further support for the thesis that demand is strong and sales are on track.

 

[KarenRei]

Whats the thinking of going to cash then waiting a few months to get back in much lower?

If you have a time machine and can do this a month ago, go for it.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Whats the thinking of going to cash then waiting a few months to get back in much lower?

As disruptive as this panic will be for the bottom 60% of US households, there remains an unprecedented *sugar*-ton of cash on the sidelines waiting to jump back in

It looks like CV is under control everywhere except Netherlands, Spain, UK and US. Once the US situation appears under control, I expect a massive snap-back in equities as all this cash flows back in greedily searching for yield.

Try to time this if you like, but what are the odds you're out in front of anyone as of today? The SP500 is already down 1,000.

 

[mongo]

https://electrek.co/2020/03/16/tesla-fremont-factory-shut-down-shelter-in-place/

Guess it's on

What a doof, article headline was actually
Tesla appears to defy Bay Area shutdown, plans to operate Fremont factory
(If it was edited, nothing indicated that)

Why would there be any need to 'extend' or 'amend' the order? Fremont is explicitly listed as "essential business", you even quoted the relevant part:

For the purposes of this Order, “Essential Businesses” means:

"auto-supply [...] and related facilities"​

You cannot supply cars without a car factory. The wording is crystal clear.

Furthermore a spokesperson of the county confirmed that Tesla's Fremont factory is exempt.

(I'm sorry about your puts if you own any. )

Or, if you don't like that clause:

For the purposes of this Order, “Minimum Basic Operations” include the following, provided that employees comply with Social Distancing Requirements as defined this Section, to the extent possible, while carrying out such operations:
i. The minimum necessary activities to maintain the value of the business’s inventory, ensure security, process payroll and employee benefits, or for related functions.
ii. The minimum necessary activities to facilitate employees of the business being able to continue to work remotely from their residences.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I've taken the liberty of scheduling New St Patrick's Day for June 13th, 2020(Yeats birthday). Sláinte mhaith!

 

[Unpilot]

Well from circuit breaker up...to circuit breaker down it looks like.

Interesting time's for sure.

Must invent time machine.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Whats the thinking of going to cash then waiting a few months to get back in much lower?

Of course risky, impossible to predict.

But I personally have sold in the past few weeks (average SP about 700) a third of all my stocks, in anticipation of a stock market collapse (things are much clearer regarding the Corona virus effects on everything if you are in quarantine mode in Europe).

Am of course not an expert, but I expect the market to continue dropping for the next couple of months. Bad news will keep piling up - mass layoffs in a much larger number of economic areas than was the case during the 2008 crisis. The entire service sector will have a complete collapse, bringing down numerous industries, more layoffs, people will cash in their stocks to get cash for their daily needs... I suspect the economic contraction will be of the order of 2-4%. Read somewhere that a good indicator for the bottom of the market is when very bad quarterly or other reports from numerous companies do not cause stock price drops. This point could be now, but I don't think so - maybe in two to six months. When the assumed bottom (or bottoms, depending on the company) comes, I intend to purchase with the cash I have (as a result of selling at 700) Tesla stock, as well as Amazon, Apple, perhaps Zoom...

Not advice of course, by any stretch of imagination. Am not an economist.

 

[Ellec]

As disruptive as this panic will be for the bottom 60% of US households, there remains an unprecedented *sugar*-ton of cash on the sidelines waiting to jump back in

It looks like CV is under control everywhere except Netherlands, Spain, UK and US. Once the US situation appears under control, I expect a massive snap-back in equities as all this cash flows back in greedily searching for yield.

Try to time this if you like, but what are the odds you're out in front of anyone as of today? The SP500 is already down 1,000.

It's going to get much worse though, No way this is the bottom. I think Tesla will go below $200