Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

mact3333

Member
May 24, 2013
235
519
near Portland OR
I know people think Corona is the CAUSE of this market sell off but imho it was the needle that popped the bubble but the cause(bubble) has been building for for many years now....I think what's going on is about leverage/debt getting out of control and natures way of deleveraging/deflating this bubble.

1. many people who understand that the bond/treasury mkt's are actually a lot larger than the entirety of the equity mat's have sensed and known something was wrong for the past 6 months...last weeks treasury auction of the 30 year showing 100 basis point differences is like TSLA showing a bid/ask of 435 x 455...this tells me there is no liquidity in this mkt...I have never seen ES(futures) showing a bid and ask ration of 1:10000 before...we were so levered that this drop in the mkt's are causing a liquidity crunch every bit as bad as 2008...thats the reason gold and bitcoin are getting hammered as these truly are liquid assets that people actually own without it being tied up in easy financial instruments...people are freeing up cash quickly and gold and bitcoin suffering but this just a symptom of the disease.

2. people think the Fed's have infinite power but you can see faith in the Fed's waning right before your eyes...in 2008 every time the Fed's announced QEW or etc, the mkts rallied hard even if it within the context of a rip your face off bear mkt rally...this time around there is no respect for the Fed's..the 1.5T news from last eek got sold within 15 minutes...last night 700B in section caused the futures mtk to go limit down...the Fed's will not fix this situation...cause at some point you can't buy your way out of debt with more debt although it did work to some degree in 2008-9, but in reality it didnt.

For example, many jobs were lost in 2008 and eventually as the Fed's expanded their balance sheet from 800B to 4T, jobs slowly came back but who do you think paid that bill...with money expansion come inflation whether you realize it not...this is the hidden pain and misery....losing jobs is more obvious and acutely painful, the inflation is the slow grind...do you wonder why rent for apps have doubled and tripled over the past decade?...wonder why 2-3 people live together now and many live with other family members?...why many young people with college degrees have jobs in fields in which they didnt study and have to work 2 jobs to survive now?..its all related.

3. Consumer debt went by 10T over the past 2-3 years...you have doctors and lawyers trying to be land developers just like 2005 before the RE bubble...you have small business owners trying to build 200 unit apt complexes...this in my mind is the definition of a top...you have HF's levered up to record levels just last month...you have banks levering up putting up equities as collateral in the repo mkt trying to free up liquidity cause they lent out all of our money.

I dont think people realize when you deposit money in a bank you are actually giving it to them...they have a legal obligation to give it back to you when you ask for it but what if they are in a crunch from bad decisions?...you prob think your TSLA shares at your brokerage is actually yours...well its not, its legally theirs now...they have an legal obligation to give it back to you or trade it and settle it for you but they actually own it....the FDIC is super stable when you dont need them, but if you truly do , you can be damn sure the instability and inadequacy will be obvious...and if things go really south, if you think the Govt can print IOU's fast enough and Fed's send their 0's over to the govt reliably you dont understand how precarious the debt mkt is right now...watch dogs that watch this stuff closely are calling out defcon 3 right now...not saying these auctions will fail, but its teetering now....I see this situation like how you saw toilet paper a few weeks ago at your safeway....at first glance everything looks like business as usual and normal, but underneath the surface something isn't right.

4. I know I have been harping UBI a lot lately but this is the only thing I can see helping the avg Joe for what's coming over the next 6 months...I think this will be a significant recession now...even in 2008 most people were still spending money but actually closing stores and restaurants will have devastating effects on small business(many will go under) and the millions that will either lose jobs or will be underemployed...QE 14 isn't going help mom and pop in the acute setting...but UBI will...at least if your going to raise the national debt and cause inflation, give the money to the masses and not the banking elite....have you not noticed over there past week more and more people have been talking about in social media and in Washington DC??...momo building every day for this.


I have a weird feeling one day when recovery happens assets like bitcoin will really rise...we need to think about the the value of the dollar(the denominator) when we think about asset prices...the ratio defines value...I say all this stuff not to scare anyone or freak people out, its just something to think about and better prepare for the future...we will bounce back undoubtably, but the next crisis will be bigger than this one and some point in the future, this fiat system will truly be broken and will not be fixable(hopefully not in my life time but maybe so)

Sorry for all the typos and tangential thoughts but too late in the night the proof read....GL in the mkt's over the next 3 months...I am bit sad we(mkt's) broke down today cause it has big implications for the next 3 months....but with the great flush comes great opportunity for the ones who are prepared and ready...just be ready when its time.
 

InstiTes

Member
Apr 13, 2019
20
786
East Coast
FYI - been told the factory is still running 24/7 with no intention to slow or stop. Was actually told there was a federal law prohibiting the government from forcing auto manufacturers to shut down for any reason (I can't find the statute, just relaying what I was told as the reason the plant will not shut down).

Deliveries in Europe are also progressing well and they have shifted in appropriate countries to having customers go directly to the parking lot, find their car via the app, and drop off their paperwork at a kiosk (i.e. no human contact).

Not that a quarter actually matters in the long run, but my sense is that this quarter is shaping up to be very strong and forward looking demand is also quite strong. I am sure you will have plenty of (primarily sell-rated analysts) coming out ahead of the delivery results claiming Tesla is about to post a significant miss, seeing supply disruptions, demand disruptions, etc. but I think Tesla will blow away these estimates. But what's new.

Whatever Jeff Osbourne at Cowen comes out with as his completely asinine estimate, you're probably safe adding 20-30k units to that number to forecast what the actual result will be.
 

Ameliorate

Member
May 22, 2016
470
3,562
Victoria, BC Canada
Not my chart, but food for thought;



pandemic.jpg
 

adiggs

Active Member
Sep 25, 2012
4,365
12,018
Portland, OR
Would love to, where is it? You don't have to beg, just give a link.



Can you give the link? I tried going through the forums and all I found was one thread and I didn't see a post from you in there (or a link to research).
When I try to google "covid19 research" I get a ton of university sites with all sorts of research. Is some of those the research you guys are talking about?

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
 
  • Like
  • Helpful
Reactions: Drumheller and JBRR

FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,608
21,267
Singapore
FYI - been told the factory is still running 24/7 with no intention to slow or stop. Was actually told there was a federal law prohibiting the government from forcing auto manufacturers to shut down for any reason (I can't find the statute, just relaying what I was told as the reason the plant will not shut down).

Deliveries in Europe are also progressing well and they have shifted in appropriate countries to having customers go directly to the parking lot, find their car via the app, and drop off their paperwork at a kiosk (i.e. no human contact).

Not that a quarter actually matters in the long run, but my sense is that this quarter is shaping up to be very strong and forward looking demand is also quite strong. I am sure you will have plenty of (primarily sell-rated analysts) coming out ahead of the delivery results claiming Tesla is about to post a significant miss, seeing supply disruptions, demand disruptions, etc. but I think Tesla will blow away these estimates. But what's new.

Whatever Jeff Osbourne at Cowen comes out with as his completely asinine estimate, you're probably safe adding 20-30k units to that number to forecast what the actual result will be.

What is your source for this?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Maitri982

InstiTes

Member
Apr 13, 2019
20
786
East Coast
What is your source for this?

Sorry, I shouldn't really be highlighting people without their permission in a public forum, but you could probably guess. No reason for you to trust me, if I were you I'd just track how right or wrong I am about things and adjust your trust accordingly!

I did say Shanghai was up and fully operational with no supply disruptions and I believe people saw the production numbers from February (a short month). And no, installing old hardware in a total of 515 cars does not qualify as a supply disruption. Crappy thing for them to do, but I'm sure they will fix it quickly.
 

Fobble

Member
Jun 9, 2018
773
3,246
Arizona
Looks like you were right. They are looking for a mini bailout. I wonder if that'll wipe the common stock.
Boeing is an American iconic company. It's even more important than GM/Ford the way I see. BA is doing a lot of Defense contacts with US government. The government won't let BA die. Besides, BA might be able to survive on its own thru the virus situation and until the 737-max is re-certified.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Eugene Ash

FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,608
21,267
Singapore
I have read his tweets. I have read the quoted paragraphs from his email. It’s clear that electrical & aeronautical engineer / business magnet Elon Musk thinks he knows better than the world’s leading virologists and healthcare policy practitioners. Why should we be giving him any credibility at all on this?

You're completely misinterpreting Elon's words. Elon is literally one of the, if not the, most open-minded human being living on this planet. How has this man with no previous knowledge about rockets become one of the leading experts on rocket design? By being humble and learning from brilliant minds he has worked with. Elon is not somebody who thinks he knows better, he is someone who always evaluates well constructed arguments.

And the quotes from the email reflect this:

“My frank opinion remains that the harm from the coronavirus panic far exceeds that of the virus itself.”

The word remains indicates he has considered data and the opinions of others, but that for now his opinion remains unchanged, but it could change in the future if new evidence presents itself.

My best guess, for what it is worth, based on the latest Center for Disease Control data, is that confirmed COVID-19 (this specific form of the common cold) cases will not exceed 0.1% of the US population.”

"My best guess, for what it is worth" does not sound like somebody who believes he knows better than experts, but sounds like somebody who is sharing his opinion based on available data.
 

SOULPEDL

Supporting Member
Jul 25, 2016
3,109
11,904
Arizona
Woow, first time ever I've wished there was a SUPER-ULTRA-DISAGREE button on this forum.

Elon is known for basing his plans and opinions on fundamental insights from first principle thinking. I'm not saying he's perfect and we should blindly trust him, but I bet his opinion on the virus, as with anything, is based on first principle thinking, and therefore should receive a fair bit of credibility.

Also, don't forget you're basing your opinion of Elon's opinion not directly on Elon's words, but on articles written about his words that have been taken out of context. Elon's true words and thoughts will have been conveyed better by some articles than others.

Finally, something I can agree to here regarding the factory shutdown. First off, I get the flattening curve need. But like the stock market, our medical system is also rigged and manipulated for pure profit. So if people die, in part because they don't have a ventilator or ICU, then someone will be taken to court. Can't prove it yet... but believable. And last I checked, there is no cure. So what are they doing that's so critical everyone gets a bed? Reminds me of Corporate Training and Butts in Seat as the metric. Close to a Trillion dollar infusion into the medical industry. I'd say their industry is booming. The plan is perfect - feed people poisons, remove nutrition, treat them with chemicals, cash in, create more illness, rinse and repeat. And you thought the viruses were getting stronger?

If the Fremont plant stays open, what can anyone do about that? The legal process could take months for a forced closure, and I bet he does allow folks to stay onsite as a backup plan... in tents if need be. Suppliers are a separate concern so maybe it's paramount to finish Q1 whole for S&P then deal with Q2 separately. I'm with Elon because I've never hidden from illness ever. I was raised a poor, dirty kid on a farm full of cats and rats, bathed once a week, all 6 kids, we caught everything.

I am not a doctor, and this is not medical advice.
 

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
9,220
71,043
Maple Falls, WA
I’d like to see a couple green trading days in a row before putting much more in. Even then I’m not sure what companies come out of this somewhat clean and which ones are damaged goods. It will be a reshuffling of the deck.

Ummmm...that's your job as an investor. Waiting for the market to decide leaves your potential gains on the table. In this kind of market, an investor who is following the herd will get slaughtered. Because there are likely to be a lot of head fakes before this market returns to some semblance of normalcy. Personally, I think TSLA will come out of this mess better than 9 of 10 public companies.
 

Fact Checking

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2018
7,517
120,116
Vienna
Well, I'd say if you look at the order, you'll see:
10.f For the purposes of this Order, “Essential Businesses” means:
...... vi. Gas stations and auto-supply, auto-repair, and related facilities;
...... xv. Businesses that supply other essential businesses with the support or supplies necessary to operate;


So it's not unreasonable to argue that Tesla body shops and service centers are covered by part 10.f.vi and (at least some operations at) the factory are covered by 10.f.xv. I don't see how you can get to actually manufacturing new cars at the factory, but there's endless wiggle room provided by:
12. This Order shall become effective at 12:01 a.m. on March 17, 2020 and will continue to be in effect until 11:59 p.m. on April 7, 2020, or until it is extended, rescinded, superseded, or amended in writing by the Health Officer.

Perhaps the order was extended or amended in writing by the Health Officer. Nobody is saying at this point.

Why would there be any need to 'extend' or 'amend' the order? Fremont is explicitly listed as "essential business", you even quoted the relevant part:

For the purposes of this Order, “Essential Businesses” means:

"auto-supply [...] and related facilities"

You cannot supply cars without a car factory. The wording is crystal clear.

Furthermore a spokesperson of the county confirmed that Tesla's Fremont factory is exempt.

(I'm sorry about your puts if you own any. ;))
 

LJS22

Active Member
Mar 21, 2019
1,081
7,536
Texas
FYI - been told the factory is still running 24/7 with no intention to slow or stop. Was actually told there was a federal law prohibiting the government from forcing auto manufacturers to shut down for any reason (I can't find the statute, just relaying what I was told as the reason the plant will not shut down).

Deliveries in Europe are also progressing well and they have shifted in appropriate countries to having customers go directly to the parking lot, find their car via the app, and drop off their paperwork at a kiosk (i.e. no human contact).

Not that a quarter actually matters in the long run, but my sense is that this quarter is shaping up to be very strong and forward looking demand is also quite strong. I am sure you will have plenty of (primarily sell-rated analysts) coming out ahead of the delivery results claiming Tesla is about to post a significant miss, seeing supply disruptions, demand disruptions, etc. but I think Tesla will blow away these estimates. But what's new.

Whatever Jeff Osbourne at Cowen comes out with as his completely asinine estimate, you're probably safe adding 20-30k units to that number to forecast what the actual result will be.
Usually they move expectations higher so Tesla will miss. So if analyst want to go low then that's fine. Although, I believe the concern from analyst is primarily around Q2. I'm hoping a strong Q1 will add some momentum to Q2 though. Regardless, if Tesla sells 500k cars this year the headlines will be "Elon Musk reaches goal with Tesla but at what cost" haha
 
  • Funny
Reactions: StealthP3D

Prunesquallor

His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.
Dec 19, 2018
3,179
33,428
Houston/Galveston
...
If the Fremont plant stays open, what can anyone do about that? The legal process could take months for a forced closure, and I bet he does allow folks to stay onsite as a backup plan... in tents if need be. Suppliers are a separate concern so maybe it's paramount to finish Q1 whole for S&P then deal with Q2 separately. I'm with Elon because I've never hidden from illness ever. I was raised a poor, dirty kid on a farm full of cats and rats, bathed once a week, all 6 kids, we caught everything.

....
I like the thinking on prioritizing S&P. That may be a way to get the shorts and hedges to let up to a degree and help Q2 if the virus situation drags on.
 

SOULPEDL

Supporting Member
Jul 25, 2016
3,109
11,904
Arizona
They got downgraded to BBB, one level above junk.
Although it's more about the Max I'm sure, but I've often wondered what Boeing knew about rockets for NASA? Ever since NASA had Boeing and SpaceX compete for humans in space, it's been no competition. As if NASA just needed a second contractor bidding so it didn't appear rigged and adds leverage.
I like the thinking on prioritizing S&P. That may be a way to get the shorts and hedges to let up to a degree and help Q2 if the virus situation drags on.
A loss in Q2 would be favorable over Q1. Everyone else would likely be missing in Q2 as well. But Q1 miss and Tesla's all we'd hear about.
 

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top