Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MTL_HABS1909]

Anyone who still doubts that there is manipulation just has to look at how hard the MM are trying to keep TSLA negative today. It’s crazy how every time it fights back to slightly positive, it’s shoved right back down.

Edit: All this while the Nasdaq is up 1.7%

 

[Nocturnal]

Here’s the problem I have with your take on it; the people you think advertising will work on are in fact not the people who need to see a Tesla ad — those people already get it or will get it when a neighbor, friend, coworker, family member shows them their Tesla, and the people you think a Tesla ad won’t work on are the ones that need to see something to convince them to change their minds. Indeed, they’re likely to need even more than that — think dragged kicking and screaming into change and the future.

That’s the hilarity of what you pointed out.

I’ve looked at the situation from all sides and I concluded a long time ago, people can be counted on to act like people.

Go look at the Covid protests. What's hilarious is that you think people like that will be swayed by a Tesla commercial. This is human nature. When people are presented with data that disputes their world view they don't change their opinions. In fact they tend to strengthen their existing opinions. This is referred to as motivated reasoning. Advertisers don't target people who are already hostile to their products as it's a waste of money. (or at least they try not to)

FWIW I do not believe Tesla needs to advertise yet.

 

[LJS22]

Anyone who still doubts that there is manipulation just has to look at how hard the MM are trying to keep TSLA negative today. It’s crazy how every time it fights back to slightly positive, it’s shoved right back down.

Edit: All this while the Nasdaq is up 1.7%

Max pain is an issue. Snap and twitter are down today and are both above max pain

 

[Nocturnal]

4.4 million new unemployment applications. I guess it's a "good" signal that it's trending lower?

I take that as a mixed sign personally, but this pandemic has me uncharacteristically pessimistic. 4.4 new applications despite the government pouring money on the problem. What will happen next month when those funds dry out? Especially as we don't have a national strategy to reopen and test properly. A 2nd big wave of infections seems likely.

 

[goinfraftw]

UN survey: Climate, conflict, health top future concerns

"A survey of over 40,000 people in 186 countries on global trends that will most affect the future put climate and the environment at the top followed by conflicts and health risks, which increased as the coronavirus pandemic was felt around the world, the United Nations reported Monday."

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I take that as a mixed sign personally, but this pandemic has me uncharacteristically pessimistic. 4.4 new applications despite the government pouring money on the problem. What will happen next month when those funds dry out? Especially as we don't have a national strategy to reopen and test properly. A 2nd big wave of infections seems likely.

Not that this is the CV thread or anything....but that's the one upside of the US having no plan. Our infection rate is gonna be so wide in wave 1 that wave 2 probably won't be as bad here. Everyone will have already been infected. Yay!

No sure how you play that investment-wise.

 

[ggr]

Anyone who still doubts that there is manipulation just has to look at how hard the MM are trying to keep TSLA negative today. It’s crazy how every time it fights back to slightly positive, it’s shoved right back down.

Edit: All this while the Nasdaq is up 1.7%

I agree. Multiple times today where price has dropped $5 in basically a single large trade, followed by gradual up-trend. While I'm very frustrated by this, generally I find it bullish. Doing such trades basically costs the manipulator about 1% of the capital each time, and eventually they have to stop doing it and the price recovers.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

I agree. Multiple times today where price has dropped $5 in basically a single large trade, followed by gradual up-trend. While I'm very frustrated by this, generally I find it bullish. Doing such trades basically costs the manipulator about 1% of the capital each time, and eventually they have to stop doing it and the price recovers.

Yup. Although I’m not a day trader, days like this seem like perfect opportunities to make some easy money. It’s just dangerous because like you mentioned, at some point they will run out of ammo in their attempt to keep it low.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

An order taker at the local Chick Fil-A asked how much my 3 cost. I did not answer, but she lamented that she would never own one.

If you think the price of your car is too personal, a good way to answer is “the model 3 starts around $35,000”.

 

[willow_hiller]

If you think the price of your car is too personal, a good way to answer is “the model 3 starts around $35,000”.

I always tell people I pay $350 a month for my loan with a decent down payment. I think most Americans use financing to buy vehicles, and $350 per month is achievable for many.

 

[Mo City]

Airlines will recover, people will travel, and cheap oil is a benefit for airlines.

It will take several years for airlines to "recover". It's one of the most vulnerable industries to something like COVID-19. Cheap fuel doesn't help when people aren't flying and won't be enough to overcome a historic drop in demand as restrictions are loosened.

 

[replicant]

It will take several years for airlines to "recover". It's one of the most vulnerable industries to something like COVID-19. Cheap fuel doesn't help when people aren't flying and won't be enough to overcome a historic drop in demand as restrictions are loosened.

Will governments accept that? It certainly doesn't seem so.

Even though air transportation is used by a small % of the population, we keep bailing out the airlines any cost, financial or environmental.

It's as if politicians have to find a way for their donors to frequently fly to remote places, like the Cayman Islands, Jersey or Malta. Should we tell them their top donors have their own private jets?

 

[ABC2D]

It will take several years for airlines to "recover". It's one of the most vulnerable industries to something like COVID-19. Cheap fuel doesn't help when people aren't flying and won't be enough to overcome a historic drop in demand as restrictions are loosened.

On that note, I really struggle to understand short term (1-2 years) bullishness as it is not only airlines that need to recover and will take a long long while, this time around MOST of our economy including travel, service, hospitality, retail, restaurants, entertainment, sports, financials, etc. etc. While I agree with most on here that $TSLA is in the most favorable position to recover quickly and fully, the rest of the economy got to take deep deep plunge in months, even years, to come

 

[HG Wells]

I always tell people I pay $350 a month for my loan with a decent down payment. I think most Americans use financing to buy vehicles, and $350 per month is achievable for many.

I have a renter whose credit is so bad he pays $400 a month for a 6 year old beat up minivan

A bit more on topic.

TSLA is acting really weird.
Cant tell what it wants to do.
Guess I need to buy a different brand of tea leaves.

 

[SO16]

This thread about batterygate seems to be sticking around. By the way some of them talk, you’d swear Elon slept with their wife or ate their second born. Will be interesting to see how this lawsuit plays out. Some are claiming this would be the end of Tesla like Takata. I think it’s overblown. To the owners of older Tesla vehicles, curious on your take. Often times misery loves company. Most on this thread seem to be level headed.

Sold my Model S after 5.5 years...moving on

 

[Krugerrand]

The collapse of big auto would not good for the blue collar workers of Michigan. But a future in clean energy jobs is a durable future with promise. I have worked for the teamsters 5 yrs in my life. My pension was 100% vested but still ended up being completely worthless due to corruption within the union IMO. Unions have an important place but are not perfect. The other question is what is the place of “work” at all in a future of automation. So many interesting/tragic questions advanced by this virus...

Valid concerns and yet historically life goes on in the new direction. Some get run over, others flourish. Basically survival of the fittest/smartest.

I’ve said it before, it behooves people to take responsibility for themselves. If you are working in an industry, you should educate yourself and know where the industry is headed and position yourself education and skills-wise so that you’re not in a dead end job.

It behooves people to do their best work, always, so that they are recognized as at least not easily replaceable. Even if you hate the job, put a full and proper effort into it and work towards the job you want. If an awkward kid from South Africa can fight his way to where he is today, then the message is clear: anything is possible if you have the tenacity and ambition to see it through.

If you’re in coal, fracking, ICE type industries and you need to work for another decade+ and you’re not already upgrading/transitioning your skill set, you deserve what you get. Ignorance is not a valid excuse especially when information is so easily accessible now.

As technology advances and people are needed less, people will just do other things. They’ll have sit down dinners with their families, they take up hobbies, they do those renovations, take those family trips, etc... Elon has already talked about this and his belief that a universal income will allow for this kind of transition. Whatever needs to happen, will happen. Get on the train or be run over.

As before, I am not unsympathetic to those who are working their butts off or to those born into unfortunate circumstances not of their doing. The fact remains, though, that we all have choices and we need to be held responsible for them.

The only tragic thing in all this is the loss of innocent life. Rather than fearing change, one should embrace it as an opportunity to learn and grow.

I can actually think of hundreds of positive possibilities that can come of this pandemic. If you can’t think of anything, then that’s your starting point in changing your life.

My motto is: put your big boy and big girl panties on and work and fight for what you want out of life otherwise get out of the way.

 

[mblakele]

The Economist has a leader this week on the auto industry. There’s a mention of Tesla, somewhat backhanded, but much of the article supports Tesla’s thesis.

The car industry faces a short-term crisis and long-term decline

Investors are jumpy—on April 17th Ford raised $8bn of debt at painful interest rates of 8.5-9.6%. The only firm that commands their confidence is Tesla, an electric-car specialist, whose shares are up by 64% this year.


Given its carbon footprint, isn’t there an argument for the creative destruction of the car industry? If only it were that simple. Millions of jobs are at risk and the big firms account for about 60% of the industry’s investment, a rising share of which is, belatedly, going into green technologies.
​

Related:

The world’s car giants need to move fast and break things

Lithium remains the car-battery material of choice

 

[Krugerrand]

Not sure everyone on here drives one, but with the Full Self Driving imaging turned on, the car shows horizontally oriented traffic signals as vertical traffic signals.

Even the left turn traffic signals show as vertical.

Even caught myself using the screen image of the signal "turning green" on the screen to accelerate the car, rather than look at the signal directly.

The implications of this are:

Tesla provides significant positive differentiation at similar price point (for the demographic that can manage to pay for the car).

I don't think the analysts, or market, recognize how close full self driving is. Or how the intuitive leaps a customer will need to make to conclude that FSD is worth purchasing are supported with collateral information that makes the promise credible.

On a related note: Tesla could help speed the transition to sustainable energy by changing their policy on FSD transfer.

The idea is Tesla early adopters in Model 3s cannot move to a Model Y, or CT, without losing the full self driving investment. This keeps early adopters in the first Tesla they bought, which helps all sorts of stats, but, importantly, keeps Tesla's off the used market and out of the hands of a significant part of the population.

If Tesla were to let owners move FSD to a new Tesla we would see more Tesla's in the demographic of a Volkswagen ID.

An order taker at the local Chick Fil-A asked how much my 3 cost. I did not answer, but she lamented that she would never own one.

A change in this one Tesla policy might change that.

I don't know how this all works out, but the stock is currently undervalued.

It’s an interesting idea; I have no opinion on it at this point in time.

What I will comment on is how you address young people like that. First, I tell her exactly how much it costs. She asked, I answer.

When she says I’ll never be able to afford that, I tell her; ‘Certainly not as long as you work here taking food orders and cleaning washrooms.’ But then I ‘plant a seed’ (even if it’s not plant a seed day).

Indeed, there are so many seeds that can be planted it might be hard which one to decide on.

I can ask what her aspirations are, what is she studying to be, where does she see herself in 5, 10 years.

I can point blank ask her why not? Then respond according to her current thought process about herself and her life - take the opportunity to correct fallacies, misconceptions or negative self-talk.

I can relay life stories of how to get from her point A to my point B.

The list is endless. Earn yourself a Karma point (or do a good a deed just because you can, if you prefer) by throwing someone, who’s clearly stuck in a negative, damaging thought process, a bone.

You never know which bone a person will pick up and run with, taking their life in an entirely different direction. I know the power of having been a recipient and a donor.

 

[Krugerrand]

Go look at the Covid protests. What's hilarious is that you think people like that will be swayed by a Tesla commercial. This is human nature. When people are presented with data that disputes their world view they don't change their opinions. In fact they tend to strengthen their existing opinions. This is referred to as motivated reasoning. Advertisers don't target people who are already hostile to their products as it's a waste of money. (or at least they try not to)

FWIW I do not believe Tesla needs to advertise yet.

No, I do NOT think those people will be swayed by Tesla advertising. And you said the exact same thing already - three times!

You’re clearly not seeing the irony of your particular stance, so I give up.

FYI, I’m against any kind of conventional advertising by Tesla, like ever.

 

[Curt Renz]

Anyone who still doubts that there is manipulation just has to look at how hard the MM are trying to keep TSLA negative today. It’s crazy how every time it fights back to slightly positive, it’s shoved right back down.

Edit: All this while the Nasdaq is up 1.7%

Electrek - this morning: China’s new EV subsidies disqualify luxury models from Tesla, BMW, and Daimler - Electrek

That could be a TSLA share price factor today, particularly influencing algobot reactions.

Actually, the Tesla target market in China is likely for the more affluent consumers. Within that prestige conscious culture, they're more likely to want to demonstrate conspicuous consumption by showing they couldn't care less about subsidies.