Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

TSLA will be added to the S&P 500 with the scheduled June rebalancing of the S&P 500 index: beginning on 2019/6/14 and fully in effect by 2019/6/24.

Conveniently June 21 calls are available.

 

[Fact Checking]

Conveniently June 21 calls are available.

They also have pretty good liquidity, having been LEAP options for a while.

 

[Intl Professor]

The "trade wars are easy to win" statement by Trump turned into "our own foot is easy to shoot" reality.

I couldn't resist: And the foot is in the mouth.

 

[scaesare]

If those lasers are powerful enough to damage camera censors, I don’t understand how the hell they are allowed to operate on public roads. Invisible to human eyes doesn’t mean harmless, in fact most dangerous lasers are the invisible ones since you don’t know you’re starring at it.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

This paints a grim picture of what the shutdown could be like. Markets could be total sugar.

Apologies in advance for Yahoo link.

In a Month You’ll Wish the Shutdown Were Only as Bad as Today

Overdramatic article. My guess is, as one of the furloughed feds, that the fiasco is over in <2 weeks. we missed our first paycheck last friday & pressure will grow exponentially from this point until something gives prior to the next paycheck date on Jan 25. several scenarios seem possible, like a) Trump declares his national emergency, Dems issue their legal challenge, it all shifts over into a long legal battle & no wall extensions are ultimately built. Trump saves face with his base in the present, starts the gov back up & on we go to his next drama (47.5% probability of this outcome), b) TSA personnel (or some other group of federal employees in a critical position) go on strike for a few days (or have a national sick-out) and shut down air travel, Senate gets religion and starts government back up with veto-proof majority vote, no wall is ultimately built & on we go to Trump's next drama (47.5% probability of this outcome), c) Dems & Trump hash out a compromise involving wall & DACA (5% probability of this outcome). Regardless, probability of new, ongoing & accelerating Trump dramas in the post government shutdown-new Congressional era: 110%

 

[kyzhk]

Here's my reading of the S&P 500 inclusion rules and schedules (subject to a chance of me being wrong):

Tesla will be added to the S&P 500 in four months, at end of May, on the next scheduled quarterly meeting of the S&P committee after the early May Q1 ER results of Tesla are announced.

The index inclusion would be announced at around around June 3 (Monday), after trading closes. But the event will be priced in after the Q1 ER.

TSLA will be added to the S&P 500 with the scheduled June rebalancing of the S&P 500 index: beginning on 2019/6/14 and fully in effect by 2019/6/24.

Current probability of this happening: higher than 90%.

The early April production and deliveries report is going to increase this probability to 99%.

Question:

How did you come up with the > 0.9 probability? Study of past S&P 500 inclusion event and the companies ER (+ve EPS by summing last 4 quarter EPS)?

 

[RobStark]

Ford product boss: EVs will be profitable

Toyota's Lentz sees car sales stabilizing, EVs languishing

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Toyota's Lentz sees car sales stabilizing, EVs languishing

To paraphrase Lentz “Tesla is the only company selling lots of EVs. Therefore, there is low demand for EVs”
Great logic.

 

[Fact Checking]

Overdramatic article. My guess is, as one of the furloughed feds, that the fiasco is over in <2 weeks. we missed our first paycheck last friday & pressure will grow exponentially from this point until something gives prior to the next paycheck date on Jan 25.

Unfortunately furloughed federal employees are not the only victims:

Low income tenants getting evicted:

Some Renters Are Already Facing Eviction, Thanks To The Shutdown | HuffPost

Many farmers need AG loans before the growing season:

Farmers and ranchers grapple with shutdown effects on FSA loan...​

Trump is also not responding well to pressure, and has no interest in reducing the pressure: shutdown drama diverts attention from his Attorney General pick who'll sabotage the Mueller investigation.

Democrats have no interest in giving in to Trump's demands, they just got a huge mandate through a historic midterm election victory, and voters are decisively blaming Trump and Republicans for the unnecessary shutdown, by a wide margin.

 

[kyzhk]

Yes, the S&P 500 inclusion rules are unambiguously defined by S&P committee, the most important of which is that the sum of the GAAP income of last 4 quarters must be positive, and the last quarter must show profit.

If Tesla's Q1'19 is profitable, then Tesla will very likely meet all the criteria and will be included in the S&P 500.

​

I will use all of my profit trading tsla and its derivative this month on short term call around the timeframe you predicted for S&P 500 inclusion. Elon bless me.

 

[lklundin]

the officious mod there is basically a Tesla short, but claims to be neutral and even handed

One thing that I do think that forum gets right is its (new) rule to not speculate whether a given post is motivated by any particular investment thesis. How it is administrated in reality is something I may be about to discover...

 

[Bet TSLA]

I just checked the US Supercharging prices. Those that are priced per kWh have a minimum of 0.21 $ - that's not actually cheap.

It's not intended to be cheap. It is intended to be somewhat (discouragingly) more expensive than charging at home. And also not so much as to make much (or any) of a profit.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

Unfortunately furloughed federal employees are not the only victims:

Low income tenants getting evicted:

Some Renters Are Already Facing Eviction, Thanks To The Shutdown | HuffPost

Many farmers need AG loans before the growing season:

Farmers and ranchers grapple with shutdown effects on FSA loan...​

Trump is also not responding well to pressure, and has no interest in reducing the pressure: shutdown drama diverts attention from his Attorney General pick who'll sabotage the Mueller investigation.

Democrats have no interest in giving in to Trump's demands, they just got a huge mandate through a historic midterm election victory, and voters are decisively blaming Trump and Republicans for the unnecessary shutdown, by a wide margin.

Agree mostly though not so sure regarding the future behavior of the likely new AG. Since the tail's mostly being pinned on the Trump donkey, the ramp up in economic pain will also mostly be attributed to him & he's probably getting antsy with regards to what his economic advisors are now telling him about the shutdown's larger than expected effect on "his" economy (which seems to be the one thing he has empathy for) Shutdown’s Economic Damage Starts to Pile Up, Threatening an End to Growth

 

[NicoV]

Ford product boss: EVs will be profitable

Toyota's Lentz sees car sales stabilizing, EVs languishing

Re Toyota: That’s ‘Dilbert Marketing’: ‘Sell what you have and call it a strategy’.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Unless I am missing something here, if the price goes below $320 anytime from now until February 15, the owner of those puts can put their stock to the seller at $320 per share. That's $32,000 per put sold. If "a lot" of puts is 10, that's a $320,000 obligation, if "a lot" is 100, seller of the puts will have to come up with $3.2M.......I hope I have misconstrued something here.

Yes, you're missing something. It's rather unusual for puts to be exercised early because it's (almost) always possible to sell them with sone premium so that's worth more to the put owner than exercising. Sometimes puts do get exercised early, but it's usually because of an impending dividend. In any case the person who wrote the puts has to have enough buying power to handle having the puts exercised. And if that should happen (e.g. $3.2M suddenly needed), well then you can immediately sell the shares that were just put to you and get the money back (or at least most of it).

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Lol. I got a 14 day ban for posting too many good news stories, though not a single one from Electrek (bears claim otherwise).

Cliffy, the officious mod there is basically a Tesla short, but claims to be neutral and even handed

Huh. Do people not know that u/cliffordcat is a notorious anti-Tesla troll who got perma-banned from r/TeslaMotors and then made his own anti-Tesla sub because of how mad he was about that? Posting in that guy's sub is like commenting on Seeking Alpha. Don't waste your time there unless you hate your mortal lifespan and wish to destroy it more quickly.

 

[Tslynk67]

But I thought we were supposed to stare at it with squintyView attachment 369201 eyes?

Is that how he gets the orange face with the white ring around the eyes?

 

[Tslynk67]

Interesting. The short interest goes up when the stock price is down.

What we have observed is the stock price often falls when it’s up, and often climbs when it’s down. If short interest jumped when the stock was up, I could understand that, a fair and reasonable position to take.

But at Christmas short interest climbed as the stock price dipped under 300. They are still betting on and hoping for bankruptcy, rather than trying to pick the fall. Madness.

I think they're trying to suppress the stock and make it unappealing to investors. They don't care about losing a few million in order to do this.

 

[lklundin]

Do these prices include subscription/tax/delivery charges?

I live in Sweden and more than 75% of my electric bill is subscription and other charges. Some are based on number of kWh transferred, some are monthly charges. If I take my monthly bill and divide it by the number kWh for that month I arrive at about 0.272EUR per kWh.
While in my bill the kWh price listed is 0.062EUR per kWh.

This is very motivational and I have already gotten some of the hardware that would allow me to limit my usage of the grid. This would increase the cost per kWh, but would dramatically decrease the kWh used.

The 0.24€/kWh I pay includes everything, the priced is locked during a 1-year window.

I just locked my price for the coming year, the new price will around 0.26 € / kWh (the exact price depends a little bit on how close I get to my projected usage - and that itself and also its uncertainty has gone up, since during Q2 I expect to take delivery of my Model 3, which I will mostly charge at home).

 

[Tslynk67]

For the few that were discussing the calls and puts.... I appear to have caused some confusion when I joked that with my luck, the SP will be below my 320 SP at expiration for the Puts I sold. I feel much safer selling a 320 Put and rolling it if the SP goes below it just before expiration, because I think there is a limit to how much below 320 the SP can go and how long it can stay there (not very far for very long). Rolling a Call right now, as a Bull, is much more dangerous, because I believe that several catalysts will propel the stock to new ATH in the next 6-9 months, and possibly as soon as the next ER in a couple weeks. So, I made a big mistake selling 335 calls when the SP quickly dropped to 300 (I should have expected the bounce, but I thought the government shutdown and the uptick rule expiring the next day was going to protect me - I'm not making that mistake again). Rather than risk rolling to the same SP a week or two later, I just took my lumps and learned a lesson (rolling could have quickly turned into a 6 figure mistake if the SP went to 370 this week and ATH soon after). Looking at what happened to Twitter when they were added to the S&P500, and how the stock price spiked, I think we will see the same effect with TSLA, but it will be even more dramatic, because that WILL (in my opinion) cause a short squeeze. I don't know how long it will last and how high it will go. If we get over 450 quickly I might sell my 2020 LEAPS and switch that money to stock, so when it goes back down to the new trading range, I don't lose as much (but I still gain if it keeps climbing, which I wouldn't do if I just kept the cash un-invested in the account after I sell the LEAPS). I am about 2/3 stock and 1/3 2020 DITM LEAPS right now. The problem is I don't know when the announcement will come about TSLA being added to the S&P500, so I'm going to stop selling covered calls and only sell Puts until the S&P addition plays out and the SP settles back into a channel.

Jeeze, paragraph's, dude!