Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EQC_]

Well for those who claim this is because of Elon, they also need to explain what bad things Jim Farley said in 2024 to cause Ford's ranking drop by 23 places, from 32 to 55.

BTW, they have Nvidia as #1 even though regular consumers don't directly use Nvidia product at all and likely never heard of them until recently. Seems to me this ranking is basically reflecting the stock performance, Nivida is #1 because their stock is skyrocketing, Tesla's ranking increased from 2019 to 2022, corresponding to the bull run of TSLA, and it's now down because TSLA is down in the past two years. You can see similar correlation with Ford stock price and their ranking in this poll.

I'd be a little more general, and suggest much of the ranking is based on news/blog/editorial coverage.

*Edited this part after seeing a couple posts above* For nVidia, I can imagine that many folks who would answer a brand ranking survey probably don't know much about them. Even many folks who might buy a laptop or computer with an nVidia card might not really know or care that it's there...they just got the computer that met their budget. But, the stock is up, and AI is big, and that's in the news, and that's what "everybody" knows about nVidia.

For Tesla, the news coverage is highly negative. Some of that is Elon specific...and it's fair to say that Elon provides the ammo they use. But any and every negative tidbit about Tesla also spreads far and wide. Tesla car involved in a crash? Every news source will cover it and speculate about autopilot involvement. Deliveries down in some region this week or this month or this quarter? You'll hear about it everywhere, with ongoing speculation that has to include repeating every negative Elon or Tesla story the author can think of. Constant stories about "beta" fsd and how risky it is for everybody. We also continue to hear forever about panel gaps, that one glass roof that flew off one new Tesla, how the stock is down, how the stock is also overpriced, and how a 1,000 pound recyclable battery is somehow worse than burning 30,000 pounds of gasoline over the life of an ICE car. And of course, don't forget about oil companies ranking higher on flawed ESG rankings for stupid reasons. Oh, and of course, let's not forget that the other manufacturers have decided to announce going all in on hybrids (after twiddling their thumbs for 20 years) and declaring it's not the right time for EVs yet...amd the media hopping right on that band wagon.

With clearly biased "news" coverage like that, it's pretty understandable why Tesla's reputation would take a hit.

 

[dl003]

For nVidia, you are absolutely right. Most consumers have no contact with their products, but the stock is up and that's in the news, so that's what they know.

Wrong. So wrong. Go on Reddit and post a random question about graphic cards and have your reality shattered. Any random meme site will show you millions of people crave their GPUs for gaming.

NVDA holds 18% of global GPU market share. But, there's more: it holds 80% of global discrete GPU market share. What's a discrete GPU? It's just a fancy name for a separate GPU as opposed to a built in GPU that comes with your average desktop. It means if someone pays any extra money for a separate GPU for work or for gaming, 80% chance they'll buy an NVDA GPU. Is that "most consumers" enough for you?

For Tesla, the news coverage is highly negative. Some of that is Elon specific...and it's fair to say that Elon provides the ammo they use. But any and every negative tidbit about Tesla also spreads far and wide. Tesla car involved in a crash? Every news source will cover it and speculate about autopilot involvement. Deliveries down in some region this week or this month or this quarter? You'll hear about it everywhere, with ongoing speculation that has to include repeating every negative Elon or Tesla story the author can think of. Constant stories about "beta" fsd and how risky it is for every ody. We also continue to hear forever about panel gaps, that one glass roof that flew off one new Tesla, how the stock is down, how the stock is also overpriced, and how a 1000 pound recyclable battery is somehow worse than burning 30,000 pounds of gasoline over the life of an ICE car. And of course, don't forget about oil companies ranking higher on flawed ESG rankings for stupid reasons. Oh, and of course, let's not forget that the other manufacturers have decided to announce going all in on hybrids (after twiddling their thumbs for 20 years) and declaring it's not the right time for EVs yet...amd the media hopping right on that band wagon.

With clearly biased "news" coverage like that, it's pretty understandable why Tesla's reputation would take a hit.

Look at this board. If you've been here long enough, you should be able to observe an apparent change among all of us after TWTR. Many people who never said a bad thing about Elon suddenly became critics. Are we just going to pretend that never happened? If that has been happening on this board where we are mostly TSLA supporters, is it that hard to believe it's happening elsewhere?

 

[alexxs88]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1793680084257186162

This should refute the idea that the recent pivot is because Elon is afraid of Chinese EV competition.

The tarrifs will negatively affect Tesla costs.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-05-20-2024/card/heard-on-the-street-tesla-could-be-hit-by-ev-battery-tariffs-we1tt0s2gevYHp9lNp3x

 

[EQC_]

Wrong. So wrong. Go on Reddit and post a random question about graphic cards and have your reality shattered. Any random meme site will show you millions of people crave their GPUs for gaming.

Look at this board. If you've been here long enough, you should be able to observe an apparent changes among all of us after TWTR. Many people who never said a bad thing about Elon suddenly became critics. Are we just going to pretend that never happened? If that has been happening on this board where we are mostly TSLA supporters, is it that hard to believe it's happening elsewhere?

Yeah, after I read your and Knightshade's posts I edited my comments about nVidiA. I get the importance of nVidia, I just suspect many people...especially the type to answer surveys...might not really be aware of the nVidia products in detail. But, anybody paying attention to current events will know AI is big, nVidia is tied to AI, and the stock is way up.

On Tesla...I think we are in agreement. I acknowledged the negativity toward Elon and the ammo he provided to his critics...so I wasn't "pretending it never happened." Yes, I see and get the negativity tied to Elon and Twitter.

For brand perception I was ADDING to that, and just noting that it is ALSO true that EVERY negative Tesla thing gets greatly amplified and repeated and quite often exaggerated. That will weigh on the human mindset with time, and affect these surveys too...

I mean, most reporting on car crashes doesn't even mention the brand of vehicle unless it's a Tesla...but the Tesla name will be right in the headline. The goal may be to draw clicks, but it contributes to negative brand image too...and that's probably the most benign of the negative coverage and repetition.

 

[samppa]

I'm looking into Turo for the first time because my upcoming short trip to the Bay area has me flying and Hertz doesn't rent Teslas anymore. That's just how much I don't want to go back to driving ICE. Don't know what I'm gonna do in EU since Sixt isn't renting Teslas anymore

Gomore is in europe, Turo-like service. Doesn't operate in every eu country yet though.

 

[larmor]

The tarrifs will negatively affect Tesla costs.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-05-20-2024/card/heard-on-the-street-tesla-could-be-hit-by-ev-battery-tariffs-we1tt0s2gevYHp9lNp3x

Other things that negatively affect Tesla: new product lines, increasing sales, 0.99% financing, stationary battery sales, pivot shift to AI-FSD, Mondays, Fridays, and any weekday time after 10 am EDT.

 

[sunwarriors]

Sometimes taking a job isn't just about money, the additional factors are;-

• Interesting / challenging work.
• Building the skill set / resume.
• Working in a good culture, with capable team members, and minimal politics.
• The mission.
• Employee benefits including shares.

The average salary doesn't provide much indication of what the top earners are paid, there are a lot of regular factory / admin jobs at Tesla.

I remember the one time I was lucky enough to work on interesting / challenging work, in a good culture, with capable team members, and minimal politics. Because most of my career hasn't been like that, and I know many people never even get to experience working in that kind of environment.

A younger version of me, would sign up to work at Tesla in a heartbeat.

Of course it's not always just about the $$, but assuming someone is not a low level person who is already highly desirable, other companies are doing groundbreaking work as well (Wayve) in terms of AI or numerous startups you see (like that Bot company as well that someone left for). Musk has said his workers are getting poached already.

Top people already have a great skill set/resume, they don't need to build from scratch so again, I'm not talking about a younger version of you, I'm talking about 300k+ you that Tesla is looking for right now (recently posted jobs). From your bullet points, Tesla is missing a lot of those things on your list and other startups have interesting / challenging work as well. It's not limited to Tesla as the only game in town. I'd question the culture/politics/morale at Tesla now. Any top performer will have far more upside in terms of shares at smaller places.

 

[sunwarriors]

Well for those who claim this is because of Elon, they also need to explain what bad things Jim Farley said in 2024 to cause Ford's ranking drop by 23 places, from 32 to 55.

BTW, they have Nvidia as #1 even though regular consumers don't directly use Nvidia product at all and likely never heard of them until recently. Seems to me this ranking is basically reflecting the stock performance, Nivida is #1 because their stock is skyrocketing, Tesla's ranking increased from 2019 to 2022, corresponding to the bull run of TSLA, and it's now down because TSLA is down in the past two years. You can see similar correlation with Ford stock price and their ranking in this poll.

Yeah, how can you not know Nvidia in gaming for decades. Their stock has been in the crapper for a few years as well. People have been buying their gfx chips back in the 90s even. As a company, their stock was not always at ATH. On Glassdoor, they've been in the best places to work for over a decade so no, it's not just about the recent stock price:

Nvidia Glassdoor Awards
Best Places to Work
2024 (#2), 2023 (#5), 2022 (#1), 2021 (#2), 2020 (#20), 2019 (#36), 2018 (#24), 2017 (#30), 2015 (#36), 2012 (#49)

It's one thing to blindly follow Elon, but another to be completely wrong as well. Surprised so many here knows nothing about nvidia and their gfx dominance for decades. Anyone even a little into gaming asks what to buy when it comes to gfx cards.

As for the negative hit pieces, it's because Tesla's growth has stopped and Elon is starting demon mode and things are not going well. It's not fake pieces when a supposedly high growth stock has no growth at all YoY. This is not a Nvidia discussion, but they had 400%+ YoY revenue growth. Maybe it won't last and there will be a pullback, but Tesla's growth has heavily stalled, hence the pivot to FSD/AI/Robotics. None of that is fake news. If FSD/AI/Robotics takes a while to ramp up, we're looking at stalled growth for a long time possibly with further threats/competition of EVs in China and simple, in the US, far more other options in the EV space.

 

[spacerfc]

Nice job saying you know nothing about video games without saying you know nothing about video games
(or Nvidia for that matter)

Actually I know a lot of video games and Nvidia.

What you don't get is most consumers don't care about the video card in their computers, only serious gamers care about this.

Besides, if Nvidia has always been so popular, why didn't Axios include them in past surveys?

 

[dl003]

Yeah, how can you not know Nvidia in gaming for decades. Their stock has been in the crapper for a few years as well. People have been buying their gfx chips back in the 90s even. As a company, their stock was not always at ATH. On Glassdoor, they've been in the best places to work for decades too so no, it's not just about the recent stock price:

Nvidia Glassdoor Awards
Best Places to Work
2024 (#2), 2023 (#5), 2022 (#1), 2021 (#2), 2020 (#20), 2019 (#36), 2018 (#24), 2017 (#30), 2015 (#36), 2012 (#49)

It's one thing to blindly follow Elon, but another to be completely wrong as well.

Yeah. you know back in the day, I used to say look at where the idiots are and go in the opposite direction. Those idiots used to be the people who said Tesla was dumping unsold cars in the sea. But now, now I see a lot of detachment from reality from this side of the isle. This really sucks.

 

[spacerfc]

On Glassdoor, they've been in the best places to work for decades too so no, it's not just about the recent stock price:

Nvidia Glassdoor Awards
Best Places to Work
2024 (#2), 2023 (#5), 2022 (#1), 2021 (#2), 2020 (#20), 2019 (#36), 2018 (#24), 2017 (#30), 2015 (#36), 2012 (#49)

Yeah, I'm sure the increase in ranking on Glassdoor has nothing to do with the increase of wealth Nvidia employees got from skyrocketing stock price...

It's one thing to blindly follow Elon, but another to be completely wrong as well. Surprised so many here knows nothing about nvidia and their gfx dominance for decades. Anyone even a little into gaming asks what to buy when it comes to gfx cards.

Well you're just proving my point, a lot of people haven't even heard of Nvidia or its dominance, they just recently heard about it due to its stock price.

As for the negative hit pieces, it's because Tesla's growth has stopped and Elon is starting demon mode and things are not going well. It's not fake pieces when a supposedly high growth stock has no growth at all YoY. This is not a Nvidia discussion, but they had 400%+ YoY revenue growth. Maybe it won't last and there will be a pullback, but Tesla's growth has heavily stalled, hence the pivot to FSD/AI/Robotics. None of that is fake news.

Sure, I think it's fair to criticize Tesla from the growth angle, but that's not the explanation a lot of people here gave for Tesla's ranking in this survey.

 

[insaneoctane]

Like limit how many times per day each member can post to this thread? Say maybe 5 posts per day to this thread per person?

Yeah, I'd be all in for that change, quality over quantity!

How about 3 posts to this thread per day. BUT, each post that you make that gains 10+ positive reactions qualifies you for another post. This would technically allow unlimited quality posts...

 

[alexxs88]

Other things

I don't think what I said was that difficult to comprehend. The OP I quoted said that Musk isn't afraid of Chinese EVs, providing as proof his opposition to Biden's tariffs. I countered that with the fact that the tariffs aren't just on the cars, but on the parts as well, which will increase Tesla's costs, in a moment when their demand isn't great.

By the way, regarding how safe FSD is, is it true that there's no cross traffic warning when backing up?

 

[cliff harris]

I didn't see a recent article, but Median Tesla worker pay was like $56k or something from an old 2019 article.

Look at this recent piece on Nvidia (since that's the recent darlin):

MSN

Median employee pay is $266,939. Less jobs overall at these places, much much higher comp. I still don't see why a top AI or top any employee would care to apply to Tesla in it's current state vs. other companies out there, but maybe it's just me and not getting it.

Nvidia basically designs (does not manufacture) cutting edge computer chips. Tesla builds cars, and even many of the components like seats. There is NO comparison. It would be insane for nvidia not to pay more for chip designers than Tesla pays people to assemble car seats.

 

[CitizenKane]

I'm guessing Musk's resistance to tariffs, (by the way great to have the same opinion as him on something these days) is because it risks triggering Chinese countermeasures which could destroy Tesla's sales in China? For Tesla, not being able to compete in China must be much more concerning than some Chinese car makers selling cars in the US. For other US car makers, the ones that Biden seems to appreciate more, I guess it is the other way around - they don't sell much in China anyway.

This whole new US doctrine of isolation and trade wars is quite sad for someone like me who always thought of US as a free trade champion. Everybody benefits from free trade, at least mid to long term.

 

[elasalle]

I'm guessing Musk's resistance to tariffs, (by the way great to have the same opinion as him on something these days) is because it risks triggering Chinese countermeasures which could destroy Tesla's sales in China? For Tesla, not being able to compete in China must be much more concerning than some Chinese car makers selling cars in the US. For other US car makers, the ones that Biden seems to appreciate more, I guess it is the other way around - they don't sell much in China anyway.

This whole new US doctrine of isolation and trade wars is quite sad for someone like me who always thought of US as a free trade champion. Everybody benefits from free trade, at least mid to long term.

A Chinese company can have a factory in the US right?

 

[jamaatta]

I'm guessing Musk's resistance to tariffs, (by the way great to have the same opinion as him on something these days) is because it risks triggering Chinese countermeasures which could destroy Tesla's sales in China? For Tesla, not being able to compete in China must be much more concerning than some Chinese car makers selling cars in the US. For other US car makers, the ones that Biden seems to appreciate more, I guess it is the other way around - they don't sell much in China anyway.

This whole new US doctrine of isolation and trade wars is quite sad for someone like me who always thought of US as a free trade champion. Everybody benefits from free trade, at least mid to long term.

Stellantis CEO Tavares agrees with Elon.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/stellantis-ceo-very-tough-battle-ahead-against-chinese-rivals-2024-05-22/

 

[UkNorthampton]

Sometimes taking a job isn't just about money, the additional factors are;-

• Interesting / challenging work.
• Building the skill set / resume.
• Working in a good culture, with capable team members, and minimal politics.
• The mission.
• Employee benefits including shares.

The average salary doesn't provide much indication of what the top earners are paid, there are a lot of regular factory / admin jobs at Tesla.

I remember the one time I was lucky enough to work on interesting / challenging work, in a good culture, with capable team members, and minimal politics. Because most of my career hasn't been like that, and I know many people never even get to experience working in that kind of environment.

A younger version of me, would sign up to work at Tesla in a heartbeat.

I've asked a few people when their last decent project/piece of work was. Decades for most people answering.

Better to work for Tesla when young, hungry, keen, committed, get TSLA options - then retire to a normal job to coast/excel more than most colleagues. Even then, the Tesla job leads to being recognised as exceptional and many job offers at high rates of pay and the ex-Tesla person is probably worth many of their disillusioned colleagues.

 

[Thekiwi]

I'm guessing Musk's resistance to tariffs, (by the way great to have the same opinion as him on something these days) is because it risks triggering Chinese countermeasures which could destroy Tesla's sales in China? For Tesla, not being able to compete in China must be much more concerning than some Chinese car makers selling cars in the US. For other US car makers, the ones that Biden seems to appreciate more, I guess it is the other way around - they don't sell much in China anyway.

This whole new US doctrine of isolation and trade wars is quite sad for someone like me who always thought of US as a free trade champion. Everybody benefits from free trade, at least mid to long term.

But of course China is one of, if not the worst, for protectionist measures, Not just tariffs, but literally blocking many foreign companies from even operating there. I doubt Musk has mentioned that once?

 

[UkNorthampton]

Latest brand survey. Continued weakness.

View attachment 1049916


Tesla Motors' brand reputation continued to slip over the last year as the antics of polarizing CEO Elon Musk and other issues tarnished its once-impeccable image, according to new Axios Harris Poll 100 survey results.

Why it matters: Tesla soared to 8th place in 2021's ranking of America's 100 most visible companies by their perceived image, but has since plummeted to 63rd — suggesting Musk and his company flew too high and too fast, like Icarus of Greek myth.

Zoom in: In the 2024 Axios Harris Poll 100, Tesla ranks in the 70s or below on attributes like character, trust and ethics.

• It ranks higher on factors like growth (48th), vision (34th) and products & services (32nd).
• But those rankings are far below its standing just three years ago, when Tesla ranked in the top 10 on all three attributes.

Context: Tesla's reputation has slid behind those of other conventional automakers.

• Honda (7th), Toyota (12th), Subaru (15th), General Motors (40th) and Ford (55th) now all rank higher than Tesla (63rd).
• Only Volkswagen (69th) ranks lower..

Not how I'd run a survey, but I'm not Sir John Curtice - Wikipedia

Not a survey/article that I would let fool me.

'Charlie Munger said in 1995 in his famous Psychology of Human Misjudgment speech at Harvard: “Show me the incentives, and I'll show you the outcome.” '

https://www.axios.com/2024/05/22/axios-harris-poll-company-reputation-ranking-data-source

Methodology, they have up to 6000+ surveyed for certain elements and then

"Respondents are first asked which of the 100 most visible brands from the first survey they are familiar with. From there, respondents are asked to rate two of the 100 most visible companies that they say they are "very familiar or somewhat with" on nine dimensions of reputation to calculate a Reputational Quotient, or RQ®, score for each. The RQ® score determines the ranking of each brand in The Axios Harris Poll 100. Each company score is comprised of a statistically significant sample size of 325 respondents weighted to be representative of the U.S. Adult public on key demographics....

Lastly, we asked a third and final set of respondents a separate set of online surveys about contextual questions on topics related to brands and politics. "

The respondents had to choose two of the companies they've heard of? Weird, huge focus on Tesla & political aspects in this.

Same Axios that did the survey? "Cox Enterprises Acquires Axios Media Inc. 08/08/2022"

Cox Enterprises Acquires Axios Media Inc. | Cox Enterprises

Cox will accelerate expansion into more cities, more national topics and more premium content.

www.coxenterprises.com

Oh, that Cox Enterprises...

"Cox Automotive is transforming the way the world buys, sells, owns and uses cars. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider with solutions for car shoppers, automakers, dealers, retailers, lenders and fleet owners.

The company has 25,000+ employees on five continents and a family of trusted brands that includes Autotrader®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital™ and vAuto®, among others."

Cox Automotive | Cox Enterprises

With our technology, market intelligence, and products and services, Cox Automotive maximizes value for dealers, manufacturers and car shoppers. Learn more.

www.coxenterprises.com

I'll repeat - "Charlie Munger said in 1995 in his famous Psychology of Human Misjudgment speech at Harvard: “Show me the incentives, and I'll show you the outcome.”"