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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I don't see the "no passing on the right" law being successfully enforced

Note that in many states, including California, it's entirely legal to pass on the right on highways/speedways - and that's true in a lot of European countries as well.

And it's not enforced anywhere I'm aware of regardless of legality, unless it's done in a reckless fashion with a high speed differential or by driving at unsafe speeds into blind spots.
 
This is just a quick guess, but I think a high speed aerodynamic object passing through a smooth walled tunnel will passively keep distance from the walls: if it gets closer to any of the sides of the tunnel the pressure differential from the Bernoulli principle will pull it back center. I.e. a bit like a hovercraft (just a different principle).

I.e. it has physics on its side. Literally. :D

The most amazing property: the faster the object is, the stronger the stabilization force (!). It might even be impossible to hit the walls at high speed, unless the chassis (I almost wrote 'air frame' ;)) literally disintegrates.

This would be absolutely amazing if true: wondering what @neroden thinks about this. I believe this is a big argument in favor of the safety of tunnels.
At the speeds in the video, I doubt air cushion is enough, though it might help. It might also work against you (ever driven past a semi trailer and felt yourself sucked towards it?)

I'm guessing this demo video was done on manual driving as while the video was low resolution there was no indication AP of any kind was functioning. But the lines are well marked, so with the addition of some indications (to the tunnel and software to interpret them) to tell the car how fast to go and when to slow down (including to synchronize gaps to zipper merging lanes), (E)AP/FSD should handle it just fine.
 
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A bit unusual this week.

upload_2019-5-24_1-14-31.png
 
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Agreed, except the last part: it seems unlikely to me that they'd decide to stop ALL factory tours if just 'empty space' and 'warehouses' were upgraded, right? I.e. the upgrades could be extensive and must be affecting significant parts of the old factory tours. ;)

The good news is that there will not be any disruption to the existing production line. This was discussed during the ER and also the Cap raise call.

Pic credit: Tesla short troll on twitter who shall remain unnamed.

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It might also work against you (ever driven past a semi trailer and felt yourself sucked towards it?)

Yeah, exactly, but note how tunnels are different. On a highway as you are passing a truck the following happens:
Bernoulli%27s_Equation_Fig1.jpeg


The shape of the two vehicles forces about twice the amount of air between them as on the other side of the car, which creates a low pressure counter-flow between them which pushes the car towards the semi.

In a symmetric tunnel scenario I believe the effect reverses: if the car moves a bit towards the wall then on that side less air is forced through and pressure increases - pushing the car back towards the center.

(I'll try to search whether there's existing research about this: this would something that should be within the engineering experience of underground train systems.)
 
This Jeremy guy is so entertaining... but right on point. His take on Jonas is perfect.
This guy is usually very theatrical and sounds convincing, but gets important details wrong.

In this video he goes on and on about why would anyone in China order a Tesla today when 6 months from now they can get one significantly cheaper because of GF3.

The only problem is Tesla/Elon have repeatedly said GF3 will only make SR+/SR+ Model 3s (and later Y I guess) for now. High end 3 and all S/X to be made in Fremont.

This may change later, but this is what we know now.
 
This guy is usually very theatrical and sounds convincing, but gets important details wrong.

In this video he goes on and on about why would anyone in China order a Tesla today when 6 months from now they can get one significantly cheaper because of GF3.

The only problem is Tesla/Elon have repeatedly said GF3 will only make SR+/SR+ Model 3s (and later Y I guess) for now. High end 3 and all S/X to be made in Fremont.

This may change later, but this is what we know now.
True, didn’t want to make a long post out if it to discuss all he said.
I was mostly referring to the general tone (ie: the blatant effort to scare investors) and especially to his take on Jonas.
 
In the past they've sold Tesla in the mid 300's and said they were doing so to stay under the 10% rule. They've loaded up a ton all the way down on this dip so if they want to even stick remotely close to 10%, then they'll have to sell quite often during the 200's.

I'm trying to understand how his works - if $TSLA pops 100% today (dream on) then in theory they'd need to sell half (or 35% or something) of it and then use the proceeds to buy other stocks in the fund, is that right? Or do they keep the profits in a cash account to buy more on dips? Doesn't really make sense to me...
 
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At the speeds in the video, I doubt air cushion is enough, though it might help. It might also work against you (ever driven past a semi trailer and felt yourself sucked towards it?)

(I'll try to search whether there's existing research about this: this would something that should be within the engineering experience of underground train systems.)

This fascinating study examines the transient aerodynamic effects that two high-speed 250 km/h trains passing each other in a tunnel experience:


They also wrote another fascinating paper about this topic, single train tunnel-wall interaction and transients:


They were using CFD simulations AND a full-scale experiment with a real Chinese high-speed train to study this scenario and verify their simulations ... (I'm sure @neroden will love these.)

Anyway, while this is not exactly the scenario we are interested in, it's close enough, and I see the following takeaways:
  • Tunnel wall effects and forces are significant: the Boring Tunnel experiment was at 205 km/h, close to the 200-250 km/h speeds tested in the train tunnel, which is larger (in relative terms) than the Boring Tunnel.
  • In the second study see "Figure 12" that shows recorded 'left side' and 'right side' pressures. The red line (left side) is systematically lower than the right side - the right side is the tunnel wall. I.e. what I wrote intuitively is I believe confirmed by this study, if I'm reading it right: the train is pushed towards the center of the tunnel, away from the wall - which is the exact opposite effect of passing a large truck on a highway.
I.e. I believe that unlike the 'truck' scenario, the 'tunnel wall' scenario is actually aerodynamically stable and provides a protective 'air cushion' at high speeds, without any guard rails. Amazing if true! :D

Relevance to Tesla: obviously Elon having another source of cash is beneficial to Tesla, but this also shows that vehicles certified to enter Boring Tunnel Loops must have advanced FSD-alike functionality, for safety. I.e. no vehicles other than Tesla can at the moment function in Boring Tunnels.

Also, ICE cars obviously will never be allowed to drive in such tunnels, due to them polluting the tunnel air.
 
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I'm trying to understand how his works - if $TSLA pops 100% today (dream on) then in theory they'd need to sell half (or 35% or something) of it and then use the proceeds to buy other stocks in the fund, is that right? Or do they keep the profits in a cash account to buy more on dips? Doesn't really make sense to me...
I thought the 10% rule was only for new buys. But if stock appreciates they will simply buy other stock with any new money and the balance will resolve. No need to sell
 
Yesterday the pre-market was at 184 for a short period, I think that was the bottom, and anything below 200 was a good entry into $tsla I think. I brought my average down to 210, and I am pretty sure my portfolio will turn positive soon :)

I still maintain that any TSLA entry price below $500 is a good deal with Tesla's current fundamentals. :D

But markets are irrational, and doubly so in the current "post factual era" where lies are printed and printed with no shame and ethics, until they are believed by a large group of people.

(Not advice - I said the same when TSLA was at $350+ ...)
 
And we're back above 200 in premarket.

I don't usually watch the premarket action so closely, but there's been an unusual amount of action lately (most of it negative).

Delayed reaction to Elon's leaked email? Everyone waiting for some signal that we bottomed out?

I would guess more likely a response to the truly unbelievable SpaceX launch last night. The flawless first step of a business that could easily bring in $billions/year is in danger of a) restoring some of Musk's halo effect and b) completely taking away the risk of Musk margin calls, etc.

Take a look at this video and let your mind be boggled. SpaceX on Twitter
 
Question: does the 50k net new orders include the Model Y? If so, how many?
If 30K of the new orders were for the Y then demand for the M3 really is trailing off.
While that could be technically possible from the wording of the email, the push for 1k production per day strongly suggests that he is talking about cars currently able to be produced.
 
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I thought the 10% rule was only for new buys. But if stock appreciates they will simply buy other stock with any new money and the balance will resolve. No need to sell

Thanks, that makes sense - I guess when they see some downside coming then they temporarily dump a stock, then rebuy in the dip.

If they had a 100% $TSLA fund I move to that in a flash, would be nice for someone who knows what they're doing to trade my shares for a sell fee, I'd have 2-3x the number by now...
 
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If indeed Tesla has started tooling /prep for model Y in Fremont, it will be much accelerated than planned. Also this should settle the score on demand issue. Fremont will likely remain supply constrained.

Also from a cash flow perspective, they will be doing two factories tooling at a time. Any Tesla fan would love it but there is some discipline needed in terms of cash flow.

Lastly, I assume the tooling will be mostly provided by Grohman, and some usual suppliers. Wonder how much capacity they have to support two factory builds. My guess is that both Y and China GA lines will be very manual (like tents) in the beginning and eventually will be automated.
So the big things will be stamping, welding, battery packs, motors, paint shop, and body-powertrain marriage. For initial China production, they can export battery pack and motors from US.

Very interesting next few quarters. Now waiting for investor day.