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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. JusRelax

    JusRelax Member

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    I find it funny you say this when you have 600+ more followers than me..... and you only have 638 followers LOL.

    You may have mistaken me for someone else haha.
     
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  2. M|S|W

    M|S|W Member

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    All credit goes to GasTrol(creator of this video), he deserves more views:cool:
     
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  3. Unpilot

    Unpilot I would rather spend my remaining time Helping

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    Yep I just saw his channel due to the link posted by you.
    I like his style...and of course his substance!
     
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  4. sparcs

    sparcs Member

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    Some of us were speculating the in-house cells would be for S/X since it's lower volume. Then they could use Panasonic for Model Y/etc.

    Another intriguing post from someone threw out the idea that maybe Tesla could buy Panasonic's cylindrical cell business entirely. Might be too much to take on at one time for Tesla though.
     
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  5. dc_h

    dc_h Active Member

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    I think the pundits talk about profit is way over rated, I do think that until Tesla maintains positive free cash flow, it will be easy to manipulate the price and cap any rise. Lack of profit will be mocked, if it happens, but it won’t matter 3 years from now if Tesla can grow unit volume over 50% or more. It’s grown closer to 70% since 2012 and if they maintain 50% for 5 more years they are over 2 million annual production. There doesn’t appear to be serious competition planned, at scale, until 5 years from now either.
    Things that will change the landscape for EV’s against Tesla:
    • VW: they continue to talk a big game but do not appear to have batteries for more than 100,000 cars a year before 2021. Their Audi brand at this point is a catalyst for Tesla, showing that EV is the future and the future is happening at Tesla.
    • Toyota: they sound like 2009 Audi. It will be interesting to see if they and Panasonic can ramp up and avoid getting sued by Tesla for IP infringement. If they don’t scale or go 300 miles they again reaffirm Tesla’s lead and assist the brand.
    • China: growth is so big, but only a few brands will be around in 10 years. BYD and Tesla are at the top of this food chain.
     
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  6. Alphacrux

    Alphacrux Member

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    I know I paid 108K. I will have to check my invoice for specifics.Thx
     
  7. Unpilot

    Unpilot I would rather spend my remaining time Helping

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    Thanks to all the guru's that do the financial spread sheets. I wonder what you all think the SP would do if Tesla pulled a 200-300 million profit out of it's hat when it report's this quarter and had SP 500 inclusion shortly after.

    It seems like a possibility since we don't know how and when the FCA payment will be claimed as well as extent of other ZEF credit's.

    A positive surprise like that would be most welcome indeed.
     
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  8. Webeevdrivers

    Webeevdrivers Active Member

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    I kinda asked once before but am curious if anyone knows a way to find out how many Tesla’s are sold in Canada. Monthly or last quarter. I am curious about the percentage of production going to Canada. My personal guesstimate is 10 to 15 percent of production of the last month.
     
  9. sixela

    sixela Active Member

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    #69629 sixela, Jul 4, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2019
    Just one example: in the Netherlands, EVs leased in 2019 by companies are added to salaries (and thus taxed) at 4% of the catalog value per annum for EVs instead of 22% for ICE cars. For cars registered In 2020, that goes up to 8%, and you can't get an e-Niro, Kona EV or e-tron in 2019 if you order now...
     
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  10. Pras

    Pras Member

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    One very minor incentive but I was surprised to know. Yesterday my friend from Jersey city (thinking about buying an Audi SUV) told that EV parking is only $200 per month vs. $300 for regular cars. Of course $100 / month is a lot of incentive.

    Anyway, I did my best to sell him model 3 but seems model Y (SUV) would have been the car he is looking for. Can’t emphasize how important is for Tesla to launch model Y soon. Let’s see where he goes.
     
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  11. VValleyEV

    VValleyEV Supporting Member

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    Or President Camacho.
     
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  12. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

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    To clarify my comment, reading the analyst statements are dangerous even if you don’t follow advice. I learned this years ago when swabb would call me almost daily telling me my options on tesla were too risky and asking me to justify my strategy. This went on for weeks till I just changed brokerages. I didn’t follow their advise but it did affect my aggressiveness and limited my return to only 200 bagger.
     
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  13. Silent Ludicrosy

    Silent Ludicrosy Supporting Member

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    40EBE82F-B57A-4F5F-8440-2A7E24715E46.gif
     
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  14. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    I would give this way less chance than 50-90%. Inventories ran down this quarter and production remained far under what the line is capable of. If there were plans to shut down S/X for more weeks (that'd be a minimum for a merged S/X line) then I would have expected the factory to prepare inventory to cover that sales period.
     
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  15. VValleyEV

    VValleyEV Supporting Member

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    Yup, this is what I was thinking of.

    Can anyone find a clip of this section on youtube or elsewhere?
     
  16. heltok

    heltok Member

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    At this point it might not make sense to refresh until Maxwell technology is ready 2020. I fear that Tesla has a plan to get by on 35GWh 2170 and 100k S/X until like 2020 and at some point there rapidly scale for Y, T, Semi, S/X etc using Maxwell inhouse.
     
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  17. traxila

    traxila Member

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    I am calling BS. This stock needs to blow up to 250 tomorrow and put the fear of God into these shorts. Absolutely everything is clicking except customer service (which is a big deal, but I am optimistic they will continue to address this and improve). I see a roadmap and a timeline to where Tesla is destroying everyone in the market with the best cars, best batteries and the lowest costs and I know anyone who is paying attention and is not vested in the old world sees the same.

    By the end of this year, the naysayers will have officially been labeled stupid by everyone listening. I think the biggest risk Tesla faces now is a natural disaster.
     
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  18. ReflexFunds

    ReflexFunds Member

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    That’s true, however maybe it’s better to clear inventory before launching orders for the upgrade rather than clear old cars at a discount again.
    After the line upgrade they can move back to double shift and even possibly overtime to clear the order backlog built while the lines are down. Tesla has plenty of cash now so a timing gap in S/X revenues shouldn’t matter much to them. And I think most customers will be fine with a 4-12 week wait on new S/X orders.
     
    • Like x 1
  19. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    #69639 Fact Checking, Jul 4, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2019
    It is: GAAP expenses are artificially elevated in growth companies.

    The best way to visualize it is through the "Amazon story":
    [​IMG]

    Amazon's annual "Net Income" GAAP profits were well below 1 billion dollars in most years during the first 20 years, and then Amazon became a trillion dollar company.

    The cumulative GAAP income during the first 20 years was less than 10 billion dollars - yet how did did Amazon become a 1,000 billion dollars company, 100 times the value of the GAAP profits generated?

    What mattered to growth and what was key to reach 1 trillion dollars valuation was not GAAP income but cash generated by operations.

    There's several reasons why GAAP expenses are artificially elevated for Tesla (and other growth companies), which means that GAAP profits are artificially lower:
    • Stock-based compensation: this is mostly new TSLA shares issued to employees for stock options, ESPP plans, awards and incentives, etc. - in 2018 this was an over -$800m GAAP expense. Since growth of the company is much higher this is not a problem to shareholders.
    • Depreciation and amortization: Tesla's mostly new equipment gets amortized and depreciated not because it's in danger of being obsolete, but because this is how capex gets recognized in the GAAP space. In 2018 alone this was a -$1.9b GAAP expense (!) - while the real "maintenance capex" that is required to maintain the lifetime of equipment indefinitely is likely around ~$450m. I.e. the GAAP D&A expense is a factor 4 higher than it would be if Tesla wasn't growing so rapidly and there was an extra -$1,450m D&A expense in 2018.
    • Interest expense: while this is a real cash expense, Tesla's debt financed growth model is an artifact of fast expansion as well. In 2018 alone interest payments were around -$675m.
    • R&D investments: this too is a real cash expense, it's not a running cost of the business, but an expense invested into future growth products: Autopilot, AI, FSD chip, Tesla Semi, etc. In 2018 alone R&D expenses were -$1,460m.
    • Higher than optimal cost of goods and SG&A expenses: a rapidly growing company is not executing as optimally as a company that is in steady-state. It's hard to estimate how much of a factor this is, but with a YoY growth rate in the dozens of percentage point, it could easily be as high as 10-20% of CoGs+SG&A. (!) I'm not putting a specific figure to this effect though.
    In 2018 GAAP income of Tesla was -$976m, and that was the year that carried most of the costs of the delayed Model 3 expansion. But even in 2018 if we sum up the factors above, there were -$4,385m of GAAP expenses due to Tesla's (self selected) hyper-growth model.

    Tesla's underlying business model was wildly profitable, even in 2018, despite the delayed Model 3 ramp-up, and the reported "GAAP loss" was mostly an artifact of very rapid growth.

    This is why anti-Tesla pundits try to cast doubt on the growth story, on demand, and try to exaggerate the importance of GAAP profits.
     
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  20. larmor

    larmor Active Member

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    Or Tesla battery supply gets severely depleted as people finally have batteries to replace in their tv remotes— an analyst told me this would happen..,
     
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