you've C Y N I C A L L Y described my position basically.
Steady accumulation is my game.
it IS a buying opportunity every time the stock drops. If you are simply buying and holding shares
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Steady accumulation is my game.
it IS a buying opportunity every time the stock drops. If you are simply buying and holding shares
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Deliveries to Iceland are top priority. Everyone else has to wait.Wow.
I don't think this kind of organic expansion of U.S. Tesla demand ever happened before on such a scale, so early in a quarter (we are 2.5 weeks into Q4).
Previously we had big increases in orders when production volumes were still low and new Model 3 variants were released (Q2-Q4 2018), but that was primarily pent-up demand. None of that happened in this quarter and production has expanded further, which makes it even more impressive IMHO.
While Tesla did indicate an uptick in the order book in the Q3 delivery report, based on production levels I guessed it to be max of 1-3 weeks worth of demand - not 4-10 weeks (!).
I'm really curious what caused this:
Or something else?
- Is this the Nürburgring effect? Did Tesla finally crack one of the secrets to Porsche's stable sales and sky high margins?
- Is this the Taycan effect? Did a good chunk of the 30,000 Taycan reservations flock to the Model S and M3P in disappointment at Porsche's mediocre performance where the only thing 'ludicrous' is the price?
- Is this the trade war effect? Does the
unconditional capitulation of Trumptremendous win of Trump in the trade war against China and the resulting cease-fire ease consumer worries about short-term U.S. recession and job loss risks?- Is this the portfolio effect? Does a +40% rise in TSLA and other high-tech stocks improve U.S. balance sheets enable some profit taking or deleveraging to allow another Tesla for the family, or two?
- Is this the final $1,750 federal tax credit effect? Use it or lose it - but only ~1.5% of a Model S/X ASP, and only ~3% of a Model 3 ASP, so according to @neroden's tax credit model it's worth about 1-2 weeks of pull-forward demand.
- Is this the Smart Summon effect? Over half a million Smart Summon demonstrations all across the U.S. over a single weekend sure caught attention. If yes then the Halloween pranks with Smart Summon will add another week or demand or so to the backlog ...
- Is this the V10 release effect? Sentry mode finally usable, Caraoke, Netflix, Spotify, computer games - what more to ask for?
Very curious development, and while Q3 earnings could be really bad ("Tesla missing Wall Street expectations" in all categories), this is bullish AF in the long run. I'm particularly happy about Model S/X order queue of 4-10 weeks - this is a big potential GAAP profit factor.
This IMO also explains the Model Y leaks and the Pickup Truck unveil: Tesla is now focused on developing Q1 demand. Would not be surprised if the Pickup Truck unveil was in late November, to guarantee that any media attention and influx of orders would help the January/February numbers.
The more tenacious long term shortz will also have to start seriously considering the prospect of Tesla being added to the S&P 500 in May-June or August-September next year: if Q4 is profitable and Q1 or Q2 is borderline profitable with a bit of FCA credits and deferred revenue help, then S&P 500 addition looks probable, given that the bad Q1'2019 (and Q2'2019) losses will have rolled out of the 4-quarter window of the S&P 500 profitability equation:
I.e. if Q3 isn't "too bad" - say -$200m loss, then Q4 earnings of $410m or better, and a profit of $200m in Q1'2020 would trigger S&P 500 inclusion of TSLA. Or if not then, then in Q2, with August-September addition to the S&P 500, because the -$408m loss of Q2 will have rolled off then.
- Q2'2019: -$408m
- Q3'2019: -$200m?
- Q4'2019: +$410m?
- Q1'2019: +$200m?
- Q2'2019: +$300m?
Still way too early to call though and not advice - I have a particularly bad track record with GAAP profitability and S&P 500 inclusion speculation ...
Q4 is always seasonally strong. US demand is pulled forward a bit and Netherlands a LOT by tax incentive changes at EOQ. This plus the new markets they recently opened are enough to max out production.
Last edited:
Can Jonas predict what is gonna come out his mouth in 2 weeks? Thanks.
Unfortunately, Say have not yet connected with my broker, so I cannot vote. I asked for this for Q1, but still not done...
Every time I see a Mark B. Spiegel tweet I envision the Roadrunner cartoon. Spiegel being the coyote and Tesla Roadrunner.
With demand that robust if only they could squeeze out more cars from the existing lines than a
small increase over Q3(if they have the cell capacity this quarter of course). Q4 would be excellent.
Wow.
I don't think this kind of organic expansion of U.S. Tesla demand ever happened before on such a scale, so early in a quarter (we are 2.5 weeks into Q4).
Previously we had big increases in orders when production volumes were still low and new Model 3 variants were released (Q2-Q4 2018), but that was primarily pent-up demand. None of that happened in this quarter and production has expanded further, which makes it even more impressive IMHO.
While Tesla did indicate an uptick in the order book in the Q3 delivery report, based on production levels I guessed it to be max of 1-3 weeks worth of demand - not 4-10 weeks (!).
I'm really curious what caused this:
Or something else?
- Is this the Nürburgring effect? Did Tesla finally crack one of the secrets to Porsche's stable sales and sky high margins?
- Is this the Taycan effect? Did a good chunk of the 30,000 Taycan reservations flock to the Model S and M3P in disappointment at Porsche's mediocre performance where the only thing 'ludicrous' is the price?
- Is this the trade war effect? Does the
unconditional capitulation of Trumptremendous win of Trump in the trade war against China and the resulting cease-fire ease consumer worries about short-term U.S. recession and job loss risks?- Is this the portfolio effect? Does a +40% rise in TSLA and other high-tech stocks improve U.S. balance sheets enable some profit taking or deleveraging to allow another Tesla for the family, or two?
- Is this the final $1,750 federal tax credit effect? Use it or lose it - but only ~1.5% of a Model S/X ASP, and only ~3% of a Model 3 ASP, so according to @neroden's tax credit model it's worth about 1-2 weeks of pull-forward demand.
- Is this the Smart Summon effect? Over half a million Smart Summon demonstrations all across the U.S. over a single weekend sure caught attention. If yes then the Halloween pranks with Smart Summon will add another week or demand or so to the backlog ...
- Is this the V10 release effect? Sentry mode finally usable, Caraoke, Netflix, Spotify, computer games - what more to ask for?
Very curious development, and while Q3 earnings could be really bad ("Tesla missing Wall Street expectations" in all categories), this is bullish AF in the long run. I'm particularly happy about Model S/X order queue of 4-10 weeks - this is a big potential GAAP profit factor.
This IMO also explains the Model Y leaks and the Pickup Truck unveil: Tesla is now focused on developing Q1 demand. Would not be surprised if the Pickup Truck unveil was in late November, to guarantee that any media attention and influx of orders would help the January/February numbers.
The more tenacious long term shortz will also have to start seriously considering the prospect of Tesla being added to the S&P 500 in May-June or August-September next year: if Q4 is profitable and Q1 or Q2 is borderline profitable with a bit of FCA credits and deferred revenue help, then S&P 500 addition looks probable, given that the bad Q1'2019 (and Q2'2019) losses will have rolled out of the 4-quarter window of the S&P 500 profitability equation:
I.e. if Q3 isn't "too bad" - say -$200m loss, then Q4 earnings of $410m or better, and a profit of $200m in Q1'2020 would trigger S&P 500 inclusion of TSLA. Or if not then, then in Q2, with August-September addition to the S&P 500, because the -$408m loss of Q2 will have rolled off then.
- Q2'2019: -$408m
- Q3'2019: -$200m?
- Q4'2019: +$410m?
- Q1'2019: +$200m?
- Q2'2019: +$300m?
Still way too early to call though and not advice - I have a particularly bad track record with GAAP profitability and S&P 500 inclusion speculation ...
I think it's a combination of many factors. Having so many Model 3 on the street does help to generate more demand. We all know how test drives turn into purchases.
The most important factor I guess is the ordering from China. I remember Tesla told Chinese customers that if they want US made SR+, October 13 was the last day to make the order. Tesla should have gotten tens of thousands of orders. Those orders are not just SR+, when people go into stores, they tend to upgrade.
It’s because Jonas realized that Tesla’s were going to turn into terminators and enslave humanity. He now views himself as Sarah/John Connor and is trying to sink the company to prevent that.
JusRelax
Active Member
The hero that this world doesn't want but needs.
I believe also Black paint went from $750 to $1000.
No change in their pearl white as base color from last quarter, which makes me think that strategy might be working.
JusRelax
Active Member
Has anybody seen this new page on the Tesla website? Pretty cool! Looks like europeans get a chance to do a 2-week test drive in a model 3.
Life with Model 3 | Tesla
Life with Model 3 | Tesla
Yeah, it might. Honestly, I'm not very happy about shorties covering now. Those who make a profit may feel incentive to re-enter at higher SP.
Then again, the pockets of big oil are pretty deep regardless of whether they cover or not.
Old money tapped out, yes. New income is coming in. Better to buy at $230 than $260 if you want to keep adding.
If shorties want to ignore GF3 and Y, I'll take it. I'm not too worried about Q3 results.
Finally some smart marketing out of Tesla. Using one of their biggest assets, their webpage.
Mokuzai
Member
I'm in the middle of getting two powerwalls. There was a couple week gap in any updates so I reached out to my contact at Tesla to see what was going on. While with my particular case they're having some back and forth with the city on permitting, my contact said in general he's pretty backed up because they got a big influx of orders from everything going on with PG&E in Nor Cal, which many of us here expected might happen.
model 3 inventory available is practically nil for all models in NYC
S and X also the lowest I've ever seen it
S and X also the lowest I've ever seen it
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Arrrrgh, should be on the front page of Tesla.com.............Went to the Tesla 3 section and still did not see the video site.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
More cars sent to Europe. Number of ships up compared to last quarter.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
