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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I work with macs some for work (not in IT, we just use company macs. I'm sure your mac is very outdated. You just don't know the difference until you upgrade to the next one and you would see the difference in speed...also depends what you use it for like email and browsing is super light use.I'm a gamer so macs are definitely a no go. I can build a P C for 1/2 the cost of a Mac that will smoke every Mac on the planet and be able to run any software you want. Have to be able to handle latest AAA gaming titles which macs would be outdated pretty quick on.
The poster I was replying to said outright falsehoods about Macs not being able to be updated to the latest OS. By the time Apple puts them in the not updated list, they are 7 or more years old. In other words, 95% of real world users can update to the current version for free.
 
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While a lot of the revenue growth is priced in - so is a lot of risk associated with the growth. So to the extent those risks get eliminated, the price should go up.

In other words, the future growth has a probability associated with it. Once that probability hits 100%, the NPV goes up.
Yes. Future growth isn’t priced in. Here’s why. Elon lost credibility with being overly optimistic. Many missed deadlines and $420 tweet has done short and medium term damage to the SP. I’m sure a lot of longs left. These things haven’t really damaged the company though.

Will Model Y/Semi/Roadster/Pickup released within the next two years? The Chinese Gigafactory? We say yes but the market is screaming NO! Elon has been extremely conservative lately so I believe that the market is wrong. Market has been “disappointed” too many times to price in these future revenue sources. Elon being quiet and having conservative estimates is something that I bet Ellison taught him. The stock needs good surprises
 
I don't think Dana is a shill. I think she is a good reporter in an age when very few reporters, or people in general, are able to think critically. From what I have read she is smart, thoughtful, but overtly susceptible to emotional reasoning. Probably a wonderful person to know. Like most of us. No, not a Glen Greenwald critical thinker, but very, very few reporters are.

There is a lot of history between Dana and Tesla. Both good & bad. In the course of all this, I feel Dana has come to hold a personal grudge against Elon and that is colouring all her reporting. This grudge part is evident from her mean tweets and the apparent enjoyment she gets when someone jokes about Elon. One such example below:

Dana Hull on Twitter
 
I was hesitant to speak in your name, but I assumed you had better things to do than keep up with a meandering thread. Thank you for the confirmation that it was in line.
A cult is defined by the believers eating the other believers for supposedly not believing enough. Just saying.

A comedian is one who calls this a meandering thread & labels the posters as cult members...

...and yet keeps on following it and posting on said thread/forum.

That's why I rate your posts as funny :D
 
Yes. Future growth isn’t priced in. Here’s why. Elon lost credibility with being overly optimistic. Many missed deadlines and $420 tweet has done short and medium term damage to the SP. I’m sure a lot of longs left. These things haven’t really damaged the company though.

Will Model Y/Semi/Roadster/Pickup released within the next two years? The Chinese Gigafactory? We say yes but the market is screaming NO! Elon has been extremely conservative lately so I believe that the market is wrong. Market has been “disappointed” too many times to price in these future revenue sources. Elon being quiet and having conservative estimates is something that I bet Ellison taught him. The stock needs good surprises

The good news is that it seems he has become more conservative in talking about future products (Y / Semi / Pickup / Roadster) while it’s clear that they are executing on these products.

At the same time profitability in Q1 will set them up for S&P inclusion sometime this year. I think there will be some frontrunning on this event.

And, like you said, Model Y reveal will be a driver. I expect that sometime between May and July.
 
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This also shows now on Bloomberg; here is the (free!) Reuters article:Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller placed bet against Tesla during fourth quarter | Reuters

Druckenmiller's family holdings, Duquesne, bought $100mm of puts against Tesla in 4Q18. And here I always had thought of him as smart....
Man one could avoid losing billions by doing 3 easy steps:
1. Drive the car
2. Watch few YouTube videos on Musk/Tesla
3. Read TMC
All three steps are literally FREE!
 
one of the car salesmen asked about me and my Tesla -- apparently (friendly) interest was high. Might be hard to sell for an ICE when what you like are EV.

I had a similar experience today. A Mercedes Sprinter van pulls up alongside me at a light, rolls his window down and yells to get me to stop next to him.
Him: is that the new 3 series?
Me: yes, the new Tesla Model 3
Him: how do you like it?
Me: Love it. Best car ever.
Him: any problems? Is that the low range model?
Me: nope, not a single problem. This is the midrange, 264 miles.
Him: that's great! I'm getting one.
The kicker: he was the driver of the local Audi dealership's delivery van. :D
 
I had a similar experience today. A Mercedes Sprinter van pulls up alongside me at a light, rolls his window down and yells to get me to stop next to him.
Him: is that the new 3 series?
Me: yes, the new Tesla Model 3
Him: how do you like it?
Me: Love it. Best car ever.
Him: any problems? Is that the low range model?
Me: nope, not a single problem. This is the midrange, 264 miles.
Him: that's great! I'm getting one.
The kicker: he was the driver of the local Audi dealership's delivery van. :D

I had a similar experience in line at Chipotle the other day. The amount of interest is crazy. Reason #1 why I’m bullish on Tesla. Strangers never came up to me to talk about my Audi.
 
My prediction for Twitter this week

<TIN_FOIL_HAT>

Apparently the new rage (per LA Times) is that Autopilot is dangerous based on a shoddy analysis.

All I have to say is that this so called “owners club” must be suspect #1 in hiding what the LA Times believes to be a rampant number of Autopilot accidents.

Meanwhile it seems the Forum’s detailed account of panel gaps, delivery issues, production delays, charging issues was just a clever ruse as all of these are no longer discussed.

</TIN_FOIL_HAT>
 
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My prediction for Twitter this week

<TIN_FOIL_HAT>

Apparently the new rage (per LA Times) is that Autopilot is dangerous based on a shoddy analysis.

All I have to say is that this so called “owners club” must be suspect #1 in hiding what the LA Times believes to be a rampant number of Autopilot accidents.

Meanwhile it seems the Forum’s detailed account of panel gaps, delivery issues, production delays, charging issues was just a clever ruse as all of these are no longer discussed.

</TIN_FOIL_HAT>
Nothing to get frustrated about because it won’t affect SP. Tesla fires, AP accidents, employees leaving don’t have the same negative effect on the SP anymore. They will keep fudding even if Tesla goes private.
 
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