Somewhere earlier today in this thread, one of the posters (sorry I can't remember who and now I can't find it) laid out a very doable way of doing this very thing in coordination with Tesla. If you've got the time, it's worth the search to find it.
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Tesla's Supercharger Team was recently laid off. We discuss what this means for the company on today's TMC Podcast streaming live at 1PM PDT. You can watch on X or on YouTube where you can participate in the live chat.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
electrichapp
Member
So Elon guided for a loss for q1.
We know there are analysts that have this habit of inflating their estimates to "induce" a miss (a f*d up *sugar* system in my opinion)
Anyway, it will be good to see what these analysts' estimates are for q1 now considering Elon's guidance.
There better not be anything positive there.
We know there are analysts that have this habit of inflating their estimates to "induce" a miss (a f*d up *sugar* system in my opinion)
Anyway, it will be good to see what these analysts' estimates are for q1 now considering Elon's guidance.
There better not be anything positive there.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Even the sales ppl at the store were accurate on model e date. They told me March and it is so. Really impressed that they met the deadline. I was expecting sept by the wat it was going.
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I do not have the URL for the original Earnings Call, but on yesterday's conference call at 00:17:10 time stamp Elon has re-iterated it referring back to the Earnings call.
URL: Dropbox - Tesla Call Transcript (2.28.19).pdf
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I think SR is different with diff seats, and SR+ and MR are the same; software limited range, software limited audio (no subwoofer), limited maps. You will be able to pay up your upgrade later...
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
No. Short volume reported through FINRA sources was 65.83% today. Ihor missed badly today.
Short Volume Total Volume Short Percent
03-01-2019 6,209,480 9,431,892 65.83%
Antares Nebula
Active Member
In regard to a Tesla App Store as Musk mentioned on yesterday's CC. This leads to the larger possibility of carOS, and it's worth, similar to iOS or Android. As the cars get more autonomous, passengers/drivers/users will begin to interact with the OS more for media consumption, games, apps, ads, etc. And the cars will eventually have more and bigger screens. Imagine as the car drives by various locations, ads start appearing (okay, I know, but just saying).
This, I believe, is the principal reason Google and Apple are creating autonomous software -- not for the service itself but for the broader value of an internet connected car OS platform. I mean how much will all that screen real estate in future autonomous cars be worth? I think Apple and Google have asked such a question. I'm not sure if Tesla has. And I hope Tesla doesn't just whore themselves out to Apple or someone and become the cheap hardware to, say, Apple's more valuable carOS (like Samsung did with Android). This is why I would be against a partnership with Apple, unless Tesla gets a significant equity stake in that carOS platform.
As a very rough estimate, I would put the value of a successful carOS at anywhere from $100 - 500B, or more, depending on the how much of a market it has captured. And so if you add this to Tesla's other market opportunities, you get something like this:
- Large scale auto manufacturer, selling millions of vehicles a year: 100-200B (comparing to Toyota and VW market cap, and not F and GM which have major systemic problems)
- Tesla Energy: 20-100B (large uncertainty here; have to see how this market develops)
- Tesla autonomous ride hailing service: 200B (note that Waymo is *currently* valued at 170B)
- Tesla carOS (ala Android, iOS, for media consumption, games, apps, ads): 200B
TOTAL: ~ 500B (conservatively). And if you consider 10-20 years in the future, with inflation and population (market) expansion, you can arrive at a theoretical 500 - 1000B market cap, or even more. And there may also be yet unheard of opportunities available to Tesla. These numbers are also inline with Musk's compensation package. JM2C
This, I believe, is the principal reason Google and Apple are creating autonomous software -- not for the service itself but for the broader value of an internet connected car OS platform. I mean how much will all that screen real estate in future autonomous cars be worth? I think Apple and Google have asked such a question. I'm not sure if Tesla has. And I hope Tesla doesn't just whore themselves out to Apple or someone and become the cheap hardware to, say, Apple's more valuable carOS (like Samsung did with Android). This is why I would be against a partnership with Apple, unless Tesla gets a significant equity stake in that carOS platform.
As a very rough estimate, I would put the value of a successful carOS at anywhere from $100 - 500B, or more, depending on the how much of a market it has captured. And so if you add this to Tesla's other market opportunities, you get something like this:
- Large scale auto manufacturer, selling millions of vehicles a year: 100-200B (comparing to Toyota and VW market cap, and not F and GM which have major systemic problems)
- Tesla Energy: 20-100B (large uncertainty here; have to see how this market develops)
- Tesla autonomous ride hailing service: 200B (note that Waymo is *currently* valued at 170B)
- Tesla carOS (ala Android, iOS, for media consumption, games, apps, ads): 200B
TOTAL: ~ 500B (conservatively). And if you consider 10-20 years in the future, with inflation and population (market) expansion, you can arrive at a theoretical 500 - 1000B market cap, or even more. And there may also be yet unheard of opportunities available to Tesla. These numbers are also inline with Musk's compensation package. JM2C
RobStark
Well-Known Member
VW plans to manufacture up to 3M "electrified" vehicles by 2025.
Up to 1M BEV and 2M PHEV. They haven't said if they will remain ~15 mile AER types or Volt ~50 mile AER types.
Concerning the price (emphasis mine on tenses, and corrections on the 15/50 thing that I think is the only way it makes sense in context):
It is grammatically ambiguous, to be sure. The first part sure sounds like they were - past tense - at breakeven, before they set out on this "Game of Pennies". But then it's not clear whether he's talking about a still-ongoing process to reach what would be a 14,2% margin, or whether he's "storytelling" and has put himself as the narrator into the mindset they were going through (e.g.: "So, I went into the woods to slay the dragon. And that means first I have to find the sword, and then I need to track down the dragon...")
I think what's going on is that the latter part is an ongoing process. That they're currently somewhere between where they were - where "each one basically cost about $3,50 or thereabouts" - and where they need to be - "more like $3,00 on average". And that the route they've taken - including closing stores and the like - will achieve the stated goal - they think. But until all the numbers are crunched in the end, it's impossible to say that they were correct in their calculations.
This is how I interpret it, at least.
A 14,2% margin on the base version would, BTW, easily support an average automotive margin of 25%. Easily.
It is grammatically ambiguous, to be sure. The first part sure sounds like they were - past tense - at breakeven, before they set out on this "Game of Pennies". But then it's not clear whether he's talking about a still-ongoing process to reach what would be a 14,2% margin, or whether he's "storytelling" and has put himself as the narrator into the mindset they were going through (e.g.: "So, I went into the woods to slay the dragon. And that means first I have to find the sword, and then I need to track down the dragon...")
I think what's going on is that the latter part is an ongoing process. That they're currently somewhere between where they were - where "each one basically cost about $3,50 or thereabouts" - and where they need to be - "more like $3,00 on average". And that the route they've taken - including closing stores and the like - will achieve the stated goal - they think. But until all the numbers are crunched in the end, it's impossible to say that they were correct in their calculations.
This is how I interpret it, at least.
A 14,2% margin on the base version would, BTW, easily support an average automotive margin of 25%. Easily.
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Krugerrand
Meow
I’ve done it that way for decades. Solid used cars driven into the ground and a couple of brand new I loved also driven into the ground.
The test is going to be if I can actually run this Model 3 (and the Y and pickup that will eventually join it) into the ground - Tesla keeps improving the damn thing!!! It’s like I’m paddling upstream.
Wait, now I get it. Call on me!
Article under discussion: Tesla: The Master Plan Begins To Unravel - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
I think the narrative is: “Tesla had to introduce the $35k M3 sooner than planned because of a collapse in demand, in a desperate move to stay afloat. Of course they know they can’t make money on the base model M3, as all of us analysts have been saying, so they had to add the rather desperate move of closing stores and eliminating the sales staff to stem the tide of red ink, knowing that it would eventually backfire, but hoping for a miracle before then to save the day.”
HowZ that? Maybe I should submit my resume.
Love how the conference call specifically told people not to make transcripts lol
I would never put any faith in what this guy says. He is just like most of the other market news sources out there: totally unreliable.
Was a bit disappointed in the App/Car OS answer. I don't think you really need 10 million cars out there for it to make sense. To me it makes sense to start giving Apps/Car OS a higher priority once FSD reliability is very close and they're preparing to start submitting it to regulators. I'd imagine that's about 3-4 years away and by then you're talking about maybe 2-3 million cumulative Tesla's on the road. Pretty much once FSD is approved by regulators, I want(and will gladly pay) to use apps, watch media, etc.. while the car is driving me from place to place. That would be a HUGE selling point to people and would drive demand even more.
Yeah, that really upsets me. Why does Tesla not want the unmolested information shared with us retail shareholders?
Yes this makes sense and you laid it out better than I did. I think the answer to "is the base profitable" was essentially answered here. The exact margin obviously not.
Totally true. However, I would not be so sure that they "slowly buy back" those shares. IMO, they are so f__ked, and they know it, that many of those phantom shares are still in the system. This is why we will never see a full-blown squeeze-----they just keep selling fake shares.
Yeah it doesn't exactly make me feel better that the volume of trading the next day was extremely high considering the news(we all knew 35k was coming at some point, we all knew Q1 might not be profitable). The only new news was the online strategy but still, 23 million shares is pretty damn high.
Sooooo what's stopping them from capping the stock price at 300 for the next 5 years?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Hi, I think this goes againts Tesla's mission. They need and intent to get as many EVs into service as possible, and that means adding value while cutting their costs.
I think the most likely outcome is that the new Maxwell cells become available within a year with an initial 50% increase in energy density. That lets Telsa produce with the same range but 2/3rds cost of bty cells. Maxcell has demonstated the 50% improvement already, according to Tesla.
Maxcell has also shown a path to a 100% improvement in cell-level energy density. When that cell becomes available, I predict Tesla will begin production of the $25K car.
Elon repeated his goal of producing that car "in 2 to 3 yrs, probably 3" on the Feb 28 CC.
So no, I don't think the $35K Model 3 ever goes away. I think $35K buys you more car. This is Silicon Valley, not River Rouge.
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