Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[larmor]

I’m sorry but a $170K car is not a major challenge to Tesla. Not even close.

But it is a challenge to two Tesla’s...

 

[FYMR]

I dunno. I saw a lot of unfamiliar avatars over the last few days....

I resemble that comment!

 

[mejojo]

Sure thing, it’s proof that there are in-fact teams out there that are actually interested in pushing the envelope and improving on existing tech, even if I think it looks hideous and is way over dramatized.

Their drivetrain is impressive and they put on a good show. The are very obviously not a Fisker or Faraday and if they can manage to continuously innovate and/or mass produce vehicles and introduce models at a mass market price they will do well. As others have previously point out, this is 2013 Tesla with a few present day novelties.

I’ll happily support anything that furthers the demise of ICE and big oil.

But....what is the market for this? From the presentation, it's for people who fly private jets.

 

[GrandEnigma]

99.9% of the people that make up new car purchasers couldn't give a crap about how fast $100k+ cars do the quarter mile, and it will have zero impact on the global auto fleet transition from ICE -> EVs

Yes and no, people don’t by Chevy because they make the Aveo, they buy it because they make the Corvette which is cool. It’s a sort of provenance that instills trust and desire, even though the rest of their offerings are absolute trash.

 

[Thekiwi]

Maybe it’s the current environment we are living in, maybe it’s for lack of advertising, maybe it’s just not Elon and Tesla, but the viewership for this launch event is pretty sad. Looking at YouTube views, even well known influencers are only hitting 5K views. What they presented today is a major challenge to Tesla if they can manage a Q1/2 2021 delivery.

Looking forward to the EV and home energy wars. This only means great things for green tech and humanity.

Even if Lucid arrives as they claim, its meaningless to Tesla. Whats the worst that happens? Tesla sells a few thousand less Model S & X units a year? pffft. big deal /s

Tesla is currently building capacity for 2 million+ cars a year in Shanghai, Berlin & Austin - none of those factories are for Model S&X because they, and other $100k+ luxury EVs, are now essentially meaningless to the future of Tesla and global EV adoption.

The 2010s were about proving that EVs were good enough to replace ICE, by way of introducing high priced EVs that could perform well with decent range. That time has gone.

The 2020s are all about producing enough EVs at scale to replace ICE in every price level and vehicle category all the way down the line. New luxury EV entrants are skating to where the proverbial puck was 5 years ago. The new low cost micromobility companies building little 2 seater city range sub-$20k EV cars are way more relevant than a new luxury $100k+ EV maker.

 

[CatB]

Interesting comment. Made me realize that early adopters of Teslas were in the same boat, took a big risk as there was no way to know if a new car company would fail.

Are any of you on this board part of that group?

Yep. Many of my friends thought I was crazy to spend that much on a car from a startup. I asked them how much a “Tucker” is worth today and then told them I would rather gamble on an early adopter who fails but enables others to follow than buy an expensive car I don’t love. While waiting (ordered Dec ‘12, so not that long) I found this forum and decided to double-down and buy some stock too. Thanks to many here for all the “not an advice”

 

[GrandEnigma]

But....what is the market for this? From the presentation, it's for people who fly private jets.

Certainly not me. Again, it’s the model Tesla took in their early days. I believe Lucid said their first showroom will be Beverly Hills. It think this shows you they type of person they are targeting. Definitely not the EV-1 crowd. Even their atrocious design language bit proved they coldnt care less abut the environment.

 

[Knightshade]

Can you explain how a car at that price will be competition? No matter how good the car is, it needs to find its market, and Model S is not playing the same game as Lucid Air.

The cheaper trims of the Air are playing in the same price range as the S is right now, and with better specs on the Air.

The higher (non-founders-type) trim of the Air is gonna be 139k.... which is the same price range I've seen tossed around for the Plaid S (spec differences TBD in under 2 weeks probably).


So seems to be exactly the same game as the S is playing.

As others have noted this is no longer the key to Teslas success, so it's certainly no threat to the company- but it's absolutely competition in one specific segment of the business... (assuming solid execution by Lucid of course).

Which is great.

Remember, lots more good EVs from lots of companies was exactly the thing Elon wanted in the first place.

And if they DO execute well, in a few years they can look to do their expensive SUV they gave a peek of tonight and compete with the X...

And if they execute THAT well a few years later they can look to do their less expensive cars to compete with 3 and Y, and so on.

That's exactly the "accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy" that is literally the goal of Tesla

Might be a good time to quote another important bit from Elons 2018 60 minutes interview-

GM also announced plans to divert more money to further develop fully electric cars. Musk welcomes the competition. He says that's part of his vision. "The whole point of Tesla is to accelerate the advent of electric vehicles…sustainable transport and trying to help the environment," he tells Stahl. "It's the most serious problem that humanity faces."

 

[Todd Burch]

I took delivery of Model S VIN 1653 in December of 2012.

At the time I knew getting a Tesla was a risk (what if they fail, what will I do with the paperweight?). And I was coming from a bottom end Saturn SL1! At the time though, there were no alternatives In the EV space that worked for me so the risk was worth it.

When the Air comes to market, the Plaid S will be out. With a huge charging network and likely a cost/technology advantage (does Lucid have anything like Autopilot? I mean, beyond just demonstration?)

Answering purely on a personal basis, would I take the same risk getting a Lucid in 2021 that I did with Tesla in 2012? Probably not, because there’s already a successful established EV company out there with cars that meet my needs.

I probably would consider the Air if:

1. I had a major beef with Tesla, or
2. The Air’s specs prove to be significantly better than the Plaid S vs. price point when it comes out.

I think (2) is unlikely, and there aren’t a lot of people that fit into the (1) category out there with the cash to spend that much on an Air. Some certainly will. Will it be enough to sustain a new car company? Not confident about that. Maybe.

I wish Lucid well, but they have a much steeper hill to climb than Tesla did. Remember, Tesla almost died several times *without* significant competition, though Lucid seems to have lots of funding available. They ultimately still need to prove their specs, manufacturing capabilities, etc.

Time will tell, but I think it’s more likely Lucid will get bought up by an established car company or tech company than survive on its own. And if bought up, it will get caught up in a mess of corporate bureaucracy that will hurt it significantly. Hope that doesn’t happen, but Rawlinson seems more driven by money than the mission compared to Musk, so I could see a buyout being more likely at Lucid vs. Tesla.

This will all be very interesting to watch.

 

[RobStark]

I don't think they set out to be Tesla's competition...they are more of a niche car maker, like a bugatti.

• The Air, the starting point for the lineup, available in 2022 and starting below $80,000 ($72,500 after federal tax credit)
• The well-equipped Air Touring model, available late 2021, from $95,000 ($87,500 after federal tax credit)
• The fully equipped Air Grand Touring, available mid 2021, from $139,000 ($131,500 after federal tax credit)
• The all-inclusive, limited-volume Air Dream Edition, available spring 2021, at $169,000 ($161,500 after federal tax credit)

There is no Bugatti that starts anywhere near $80k

Lucid is building a factory with 400k unit per year capacity. Bugatti has never sold anywhere near 400k units.

After Air Lucid plans to build the Gravity SUV then a Model 3 competitor.

You can't sell enough $80k plus vehicles to keep a 400k unit factory running.

Capacity for combined Air/Gravity will be 100k units per year.

Lucid will also make Power Wall and Powerpack competitors.

Hyperdrive - Bloomberg

BTW The only options for Lucid Air Dream Edition is smaller 19 wheels(vs standard 21" wheels), cold weather package, and all weather floor matts.

Lucid doesn't list rebates or prices for those options.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Who cares about a rival car maker releasing $100k+ EVs in the 2020s?

High priced luxury EVs are a niche market that is meaningless when Tesla, VW etc are focused on growing the mass market sub-$50k EV market where the vast bulk of Auto revenue is generated.

Wake me up when Lucid has firm near term plans to produce millions of sub $50k cars.

I said the same thing about Tesla in 2008
Also it’s a good thing Lucid are releasing sub-100K EVs

 

[Hammerhead786]

Personally, I wasn't impressed by the Lucid presentation. Too scripted and the Q&A was just unbearable. Even though the tech looks good, time will tell if it lives up to expectations. Until they can get an affordable car for the masses, Lucid will remain a niche player, but will probably be successful in their own way. Also, I doubt that the Saudis will let them go down easy. Good luck to them.

Tesla on the other hand, have the expertise of S3XY to call upon as well as their partnership with Spacex. I'd like to believe that Elon has learnt from past mistakes and is now actively sandbagging timelines and expectations, luring others into a false sense of security before he delivers the killer punch.

This may sound like the ramblings of an idiot, but with regard to the casting machines, maybe Elon's plan is to have recycleable cars. If they can manufacture a shell from the cast pieces along with the new wiring in place, then when a vehicle gets totaled, a new shell is supplied and the components from the old shell get transferred to the new one resulting in a quicker repair. The old shell then gets recycled.

Once the blueprint for the Giga/Tera factories has been optimized, it will be prefab all the way with buildings going up at an astonishing speed. Whose not to say that Tesla couldn't apply the lessons learnt from building these factories along with their innovations (solar, powerwall, hvac) from the energy business and use them to enter the home construction business?

 

[Todd Burch]

Yes and no, people don’t by Chevy because they make the Aveo, they buy it because they make the Corvette which is cool. It’s a sort of provenance that instills trust and desire, even though the rest of their offerings are absolute trash.

I know of precisely zero people in my current life or my previous 40 years of life that ever bought a Chevy because it’s cool, or because Chevy makes a Corvette and that makes it cool. They buy them because they can’t afford the car they really want, or because they just want to get from point A to B and don’t give a damn about cars.

 

[Todd Burch]

The 2020s are all about producing enough EVs at scale to replace ICE in every price level and vehicle category all the way down the line. New luxury EV entrants are skating to where the proverbial puck was 5 years ago.

Maybe true, but starting at the high end and working down, as Tesla did, is probably the only way to start a new car company. Can’t fault them for that.

 

[RobStark]

I know of precisely zero people in my current life or my previous 40 years of life that ever bought a Chevy because it’s cool, or because Chevy makes a Corvette because it’s cool. They buy them because they can’t afford the car they really want, or because they just want to get from point A to B and don’t give a damn about cars.

No one will ever admit they bought a Malibu or an Equinox because it is the same make as the Corvette.

Same way no one will admit advertising works on them.

Because at best it makes you sound like a tool.

But it works. Advertising and Halo cars.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Personally, I wasn't impressed by the Lucid presentation.

Was it due to the lack of umms, errs, & aaarrs like Elon?

 

[GrandEnigma]

I know of precisely zero people in my current life or my previous 40 years of life that ever bought a Chevy because it’s cool, or because Chevy makes a Corvette because it’s cool. They buy them because they can’t afford the car they really want, or because they just want to get from point A to B and don’t give a damn about cars.

I don’t know, maybe it was because I went to grad school in Indiana, but there was a massive Ford vs Chevy rift of which I was happy to disrupt with my Volt at the time

 

[Hammerhead786]

Was it due to the lack of umms, errs, & aaarrs like Elon?

Probably....lol.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Lucid Dream will be bought by people who don’t look at price tags

 

[RobStark]

Certainly not me. Again, it’s the model Tesla took in their early days. I believe Lucid said their first showroom will be Beverly Hills. It think this shows you they type of person they are targeting. Definitely not the EV-1 crowd. Even their atrocious design language bit proved they coldnt care less abut the environment.

First Tesla store being across Centinela Avenue in West Los Angeles instead of Beverly Hills makes Tesla a brand of the people.