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sheesh! all of this nonsense about Lucid being a competitor to Tesla or will it take any sales from Tesla. It won't. Sure, someone will say (for bragging rights if nothing else) that they bought a Lucid Air instead of a Tesla. And in some cases it may even be true. But Lucid Air is bringing more attention to EVs and it will certainly be true that someone may have their interest sparked by Lucid Air promotion/advertising then get a Tesla because it is better for them.

Whether Lucid makes 4,000 or 400,000 cars a year, they would never be any threat to Tesla. At most they will threaten legacy makers. And I hope they do.

Lets get real. Tesla doesn't sell every Model S they can make.

Tesla has a capacity right now for 90k S/X per year and not selling that. And hasn't for a while.

That may change after Battery Day or it may not.

Of course some Model S intenders will buy Air instead. Particularly people that never road trip. That doesn't mean Tesla can't sell 60k Model S per year if the refresh/upgrade it enough. The current iteration is simply not good enough to get 60k people per year to part with their money.

And it is silly to suggest that the end game for Lucid is one factory producing 400k cars per year.

I hope in 2030 the American Big Three are Tesla plus Rivian,GM,or Lucid. Hell, a Big Four sounds nice too.

Ford's refusal to build a GF means they are ****ed.

Stellantis(FCA +PSA) isn't an American Company.
 
You all have missed years ago very smart people coming and leaving. For several reasons, people tend to be done (or rich) or bored after years but that does not prevent us from new smart people showing up.

And should I mention the turnover of trolls, haters, shorts, and FUdsters that came here in masses almost dominating with posts this forum for days and are just a memory now after some have been fighting them with logic, intelligence and facts?!

They seem to be an endangered species now.
I imagine it's because a good percentage of them can no longer afford internet access.
 
Lets get real. Tesla doesn't sell every Model S they can make.

Tesla has a capacity right now for 90k S/X per year and not selling that. And hasn't for a while.

That may change after Battery Day or it may not.

Of course some Model S intenders will buy Air instead. Particularly people that never road trip. That doesn't mean Tesla can't sell 60k Model S per year if the refresh/upgrade it enough. The current iteration is simply not good enough to get 60k people per year to part with their money.

And it is silly to suggest that the end game for Lucid is one factory producing 400k cars per year.

I hope in 2030 the American Big Three are Tesla plus Rivian,GM,or Lucid. Hell, a Big Four sounds nice too.

Ford's refusal to build a GF means they are ****ed.

Stellantis(FCA +PSA) isn't an American Company.
Depends how you look at it. If Tesla continues to be a car company then by 2030 it may play out like you said.

But if Tesla wants to disrupt manufacturing by a factor of 100 of everything, from frames to battery cells. Then get FSD online.

I don't know about you but if Tesla can make 30% margins on a Model 3 type car that cost 20k by 2025 with FSD working..
Isn't this the 2 trillions dollar market cap people are hoping for?

You guys have to decide. If Tesla becomes a 2 trillion dollar company, it needs to dominate in a fashion that's unprecedented. Tesla needs to be making billions from FSD ride hailing, some stupid margin due to manufacturing disruption while at the same time completely under cutting every competition by miles in auto and energy. Taking like 20% marketshare just means Tesla are not cheap enough and FSD is not good enough by 2030. Toyota is at 20% marketshare. The reason is I don't feel stupid if I don't buy a Toyota. Tesla needs to destroy this and make people literally feel stupid for not buying a Tesla as if they are just throwing money away. There's absolutely zero reason for Tesla to be at 20% marketshare if Tesla is that disruptive.
 
Personally, I wasn't impressed by the Lucid presentation. Too scripted and the Q&A was just unbearable. Even though the tech looks good, time will tell if it lives up to expectations. Until they can get an affordable car for the masses, Lucid will remain a niche player, but will probably be successful in their own way. Also, I doubt that the Saudis will let them go down easy. Good luck to them.

Tesla on the other hand, have the expertise of S3XY to call upon as well as their partnership with Spacex. I'd like to believe that Elon has learnt from past mistakes and is now actively sandbagging timelines and expectations, luring others into a false sense of security before he delivers the killer punch.

This may sound like the ramblings of an idiot, but with regard to the casting machines, maybe Elon's plan is to have recycleable cars. If they can manufacture a shell from the cast pieces along with the new wiring in place, then when a vehicle gets totaled, a new shell is supplied and the components from the old shell get transferred to the new one resulting in a quicker repair. The old shell then gets recycled.

Once the blueprint for the Giga/Tera factories has been optimized, it will be prefab all the way with buildings going up at an astonishing speed. Whose not to say that Tesla couldn't apply the lessons learnt from building these factories along with their innovations (solar, powerwall, hvac) from the energy business and use them to enter the home construction business?

I would like to see Tesla build homes the following way...
  • Robot 3D prints walls out of boring company bricks. (with built in ducting holes)
  • Workers install solar roof.
  • Workers finish the project from their including :-
    • Tesla lighting
    • Tesla heating/cooling
    • Tesla hot water
    • Powerwall
    • Tesla home automation
For Lucid the main competition is luxury ICE vehicles and the car stacks up reasonably well.

They should get some credit for copying Tesla's playbook and avoiding dumb ideas like hydrogen.
 
I couldn't get through much more than the first few minutes of the Lucid unveil. All this smooth blather. Perhaps people who like that sort of thing are their audience?

Let's start with the claim that they chose to "think completely different". Note they didn't say "think different" because that would be thinking the same as Apple, but they retained the recognizable grammatical anomaly so as to claim kinship with Apple's legendary design prowess. Only not.

And then they went through a bunch of things that somehow thinking completely different led them to, and amazingly they were almost exactly what Tesla did with the Model S, mostly back in 2012. Uncanny! They could have shortened their presentation significantly by just saying "Tesla got it all right, so we copied them. Only completely different, if you know what we mean."

And in market-speak that defied physics they decided to make "something that just flowed through the air without being overly aggressive, and through that vision we came up with this idea of a jet..." Umm... hard to get more aggressive than a jet. Maybe they meant a glider? I sure don't think they are using a propulsion system that flings mass out the back end.

And they were inspired to "simplify the vehicle down to its very core essence. The car really has just one line that goes all the way round, and that became this key defining feature and all of the other details flay [play?] off of that one line..." Maybe I just don't have enough patience with design-speak, but that struck me as seriously heavy on the bullshit.

And it all culminated in "the largest taillight ever". I had to stop at that point.

LOL, I agree. I didn't watch the show, just read the Teslarati article, which sounds like it came from Lucid PR:

The design also is drastically different from any other car on the road. While the differences are subtle, the modern proportions for the Air deliver a one-of-a-kind look that gives drivers a unique design.
Lucid Air unveiling: four variants,

Excuse me. Leaving aside the question of how a design can be "drastically different... while the differences are subtle," that car exterior looks like Model S with a chrome mustache. The interior has a floating instrument screen like Model 3/Y, except stretched and curved, and a second touchscreen below the center dashboard like Porsche Taycan. Which part is "one-of-a-kind" again?

This triggers several thoughts:

1) Even if Plaid fails to beat the Air's "unheard-of" specs, which I doubt... why would someone buy an obvious imitator of Model S when they can get the real thing? The only reason I can think of is to stand out from the crowd of Teslas already on the road.

2) If you are targeting buyers who want to stand out, why not really stand out with a truly distinctive design... like an electric Lamborghini or Faraday's bat-mobile?

3) The world is changing fast. Young people seem increasing tolerant of and appreciative of real innovation. The most innovative design in history for a production auto is Tesla's Cybertruck, which split observers into two polarized camps of "Hideous!" and "Awesome!"

4) I predict that buyers who wanna stand out or who appreciate real innovation will make Cybertruck a phenomenal seller. And when Tesla releases a low-cost, high-performance, folded-steel Cybercar (like the fan concept below but better)... holy tsunami, Batman.

making-the-case-for--4.jpg
 
Who would you like to see succeed as the 2nd US EV maker (behind Tesla)?
  • Ford
  • GM
  • Chrysler
  • Rivian
  • Lucid
  • No one
6 months ago I would have said Rivian, now I prefer Lucid, even though their first car isn't something I personally would buy.

IMO the legacy ICE makers have tried to slow down the adoption of EVs and don't have a culture of innovation.

The world is big enough for 2 US car companies it will be a long hard slog for Lucid to get to scale, just as tough as it was for Tesla.

if I had to nominate who is most likely to fill second spot it is GM, they don't deserve it and their products will be mediocre unless they can complete overhaul their corporate culture.

No one is a possibility, but not very likely IMO.
 
With a 517 mile range & 9.9 sec quarter mile, I’m guessing you take a subtle approach to life
Yeah, Lucid will offer a choice of either 517 mile range or a 9.9 sec quarter mile capable car. They don't offer a single version that can do both, no matter the price.

And the 2012 Model S isn't 'beaten' by a 83KWh Lucid Air until it is actually in production and being delivered to customers. Wot's that then, 2024? They'll do well to survive that long as a company. The market for $169K+ Sedans is not very large. The competetion as they move downmarket will be ever more intense.

BTW, I expect 'out-of-warranty' Models S will have an available 'Roadrunner' bty pack upgrade before then, updating those cars to 350+ miles of range and 1 million mile bty pack life, from mobile bty swap stations:


Model S FTW :D

Cheers!
 
I'm sure you know that I don't personally. It does seem like a strange oversight for a company to be allowed to 'hide' stuff like this for up to three months though. I should stop being surprised about things companies can get away with not reporting immediately.

Edit: Actually I guess the S&P can't include Tesla now because they can't know the exact float and thus can't figure out the weight. Guess Elon did find a way to stay out of the S&P. Constantly change the number of outstanding shares every quarter.

All public companies "hide" the amount of cash on hand until quarterly reporting. There is no difference whether it's shares or cash received and no big deal as it will all be reported down to the nearest dollar at quarterly intervals, just like other important business metrics.
 
1) Even if Plaid fails to beat the Air's "unheard-of" specs, which I doubt... why would someone buy an obvious imitator of Model S when they can get the real thing? The only reason I can think of is to stand out from the crowd of Teslas already on the road.

I can think of a number of reasons:
A) It can charge faster. Even the V3 SuperCharger doesn't reach the claimed 1200 miles/hour rate.
B) True Luxury. Can't get leather in any Tesla vehicle anymore. And Lucid emphasized that they're prioritizing build quality over production quantity. Definitely reminding people of panel gaps and other interior fit/finish issues.
C) Rear seat comfort. The "sculptured" battery pack means you may not have the knees too high issue that Model S has for back seat occupants.
D) The luxury back seat option - clearly aimed at the high-end China market where people have Chauffeurs.
E) 500+ miles of range, about 25% more than the longest range Tesla today.

2) If you are targeting buyers who want to stand out, why not really stand out with a truly distinctive design... like an electric Lamborghini or Faraday's bat-mobile?

Because that's not what the $150K market wants. They want slightly different, not totally different.

3) The world is changing fast. Young people seem increasing tolerant of and appreciative of real innovation. The most innovative design in history for a production auto is Tesla's Cybertruck, which split observers into two polarized camps of "Hideous!" and "Awesome!"

At this price range, young people are not the target market for Lucid.

4) I predict that buyers who wanna stand out or who appreciate real innovation will make Cybertruck a phenomenal seller. And when Tesla releases a low-cost, high-performance, folded-steel Cybercar (like the fan concept below but better)... holy tsunami, Batman.

making-the-case-for--4.jpg

So, you're showing a fan rendering as somehow supportive of Tesla? That's a fail. Again, high-end sedan buyers don't want radical looks, they want comfort and luxury with performance. As someone else pointed out, that Lucid is opening their first showroom in Beverly Hills says a lot. The competition for Lucid is the Taycan, not the Model S. At least for now.
 
I'm kind of surprised in all of this chatter about Lucid and other competitors there doesn't seem to be much mention of Tesla's ability to rapidly scale production and bring down costs.

In the next few months we are going to see the impact of the larger casting on Model Y production and then maybe a couple of quarters later the opening of the Euro GF. Along with whatever improvements in battery tech, plaid powertrains and autopilot in the next year or two.

I think Tesla is looking to become Toyota. With some nice cars, but really dominated by volume production vehicles that others can't match from a cost standpoint.
 
No one will ever admit they bought a Malibu or an Equinox because it is the same make as the Corvette.

Same way no one will admit advertising works on them.

Because at best it makes you sound like a tool.

But it works. Advertising and Halo cars.
True.

But intriguing, no?

People might rather have exciting cars they can afford,

but have settled for a whiff of a vehicle they cannot buy (and feeling they are tools).

What happens when someone offers them a product within their reach

that they will love?

Another broken business model.

Almost poetic in its irony.